anon
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For people not directly involved with SIAI, is there specific evidence that it isn't run by a group of genuine sociopaths with the goal of taking over the universe to fulfill (a compromise of) their own personal goals, which are fundamentally at odds with those of humanity at large?
Humans have built-in adaptions for lie detection, but betting a decision like this on the chance of my sense motive roll beating the bluff roll of a person with both higher INT and CHA than myself seems quite risky.
Published writings about moral integrity and ethical injunctions count for little in this regard, because they may have been written with the specific intent to deceive... (read more)
Re. 4, not for the way I asked the question. Obviously asking for a probability, or any empirical evidence I would have to take your word on, would have been silly. But there might have been excellent public evidence against the Evil hypothesis I just wasn't aware of (I couldn't think of any likely candidates, but that might have been a failure of my imagination); in that case, you would likely be aware of such evidence, and would have a significant icentive to present it. It was a long shot.