Comment author:Morendil
02 November 2011 06:29:51PM
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2 points
[-]
The Good Judgment project has started publishing a leaderboard. FWIW, as of this writing I am in pole position with a "Brier score" of 0.18, with numbers 2 and 3 at 0.2 and 0.23 respectively. (I'm not sure whether other participants are also from LW.)
(ETA: dethroned! I'm #2 now, #1 has a score of .16.)
Team scores seem a bit below the best individual scores: 0.32, 0.33 and 0.36 for the best three teams.
From the emails I've been getting from the organizers, they have trouble sustaining participation from all who signed up; poor participation is leading to poor forecasting scores.
Comment author:anonomouse
08 November 2011 04:22:45PM
1 point
[-]
FYI the leaderboard rankings are fake, or at least generated strategically to provide users with specific information. I am near the top of my own leaderboard, while my friend sees his own name but not mine. Also, my Brier is listed at 0.19, strikingly close to yours. I wonder if they are generated with some apparent distribution.
My take is that the leader stats are some kind of specific experimental treatment they're toying with.
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The Good Judgment project has started publishing a leaderboard. FWIW, as of this writing I am in pole position with a "Brier score" of 0.18, with numbers 2 and 3 at 0.2 and 0.23 respectively. (I'm not sure whether other participants are also from LW.)
(ETA: dethroned! I'm #2 now, #1 has a score of .16.)
Team scores seem a bit below the best individual scores: 0.32, 0.33 and 0.36 for the best three teams.
From the emails I've been getting from the organizers, they have trouble sustaining participation from all who signed up; poor participation is leading to poor forecasting scores.
FYI the leaderboard rankings are fake, or at least generated strategically to provide users with specific information. I am near the top of my own leaderboard, while my friend sees his own name but not mine. Also, my Brier is listed at 0.19, strikingly close to yours. I wonder if they are generated with some apparent distribution.
My take is that the leader stats are some kind of specific experimental treatment they're toying with.