Given that this quote essentially advises ignoring priors, I don't see what's so Bayesian about it.

If we work around this assumption of being cis as the default… like, for example, if we stop thinking about the fact that as an abstract, general question a random human being is much more likely to be cis than trans, and instead consider the question in terms of whether, given everything we observe in ourselves, and everything we feel, and how strong our feelings are about this question of gender, which (cis or trans) is more likely for us… if we consider “is it really all that likely that I’m just a cis person who has somehow managed to convince myself that I’m trans to the point that I’m having this kind of crisis?”… if we reframe it, then the question becomes something very different, and more manageable.

Natalie Reed taking a very Bayesian approach to gender identity

Somebody could give me this glass of water and tell me that it’s water. But there’s a lot of clear liquids out there and I might actually have a real case that this might not be water. Now most cases when something like a liquid is in a cup it’s water.

A good way to find out if it’s water is to test if it has two hydrogens per oxygen in each molecule in the glass and you can test that. If it evaporates like water, if it tastes like water, freezes like water… the more tests we apply, the more sure we can be that it’s water.

However, if it were some kind of acid and we started to test and we found that the hydrogen count is off, the oxygen count is off, it doesn’t taste like water, it doesn’t behave like water, it doesn’t freeze like water, it just looks like water. If we start to do these tests, the more we will know the true nature of the liquid in this glass. That is how we find truth. We can test it any number of ways; the more we test it, the more we know the truth of what it is that we’re dealing with.

• An ex-Mormon implicitly describing Bayesian updates

Hardly the most important thing in the chapter, but I was delighted to see a moratorium on house points.

We should try to pick up "moreright.com" from whoever owns it. It's domain-parked at the moment.

It's a shame you retracted this, because I wanted to +1 it.

There is the theory that the Invisibility Cloak's power to hide one from Death does not only apply to Dementors, but to death in general. So if you put the cloak over someone who is dying, they would stay alive, at least until the Cloak is removed and death can find them again.

It's just another of those crazy crackpot theories floating around here, but I think it could fill in that gap in your theory.

I often get this confused, but isn't it supposed to be the Pioneer probe?

I would be happier with this quote if the emphasis were on "think," because impossibility proofs are possible sometimes.

Whatever you think can't be done, somebody will come along and do it.

Thelonious Monk