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My dark horse bet is on 3d country trying desperately to catch up to US/China just when they will be close to reaching agreement on slowing down progress. Most likely: France. 

Why so? My understanding is that, if AGI will arrives in 2026 it will be based on the current paradigm of training increasingly large LLMs on massive clusters of advanced GPUs. Given that US has banned selling advanced GPUs to China, how do you expect them to catch up that soon?

To add to this point, author in question is infamous for doxxing Scott Alexander and writing a hit piece on rationalist community before.

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/09/11/update-on-my-situation/

 

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Also agree about not promoting political content on LW but would love to read your writings on some other platform if possible.

If it reaches that point, the goal for Russia would not be to win but to ensure another side loses too, and this outcome might be preferable (to them) to a humiliating conventional defeat that might permanently end Russian sovereignty. In the end, the West has far more to lose than Russia and the stakes aren't that high for us and they know it. 

No. I think everything else is in crappy shape cause the Nuclear arsenal was always a priority for the Russian defense industry and most of the money and resources went there. I've noticed that the meme "perhaps Russian nukes don't work" is getting increasingly popular which can have pretty bad consequences if the meme spreads and emboldens escalation.

It is like being incentivized to play Russian roulette because you hear bullets were made in a country that produced some other crappy products.

Looks awesome!  Maybe there could be extended UI that tracks the recent research papers (sorta like I did here) or SOTA achievements. But maybe that would ruin the smooth minimalism of the page. 

You can also play around with open-source versions that offer surprisingly comparable capability to OpenAI models. 

Here is the GPT-6-J from EleutherAI that you can use without any hassle:  https://6b.eleuther.ai/

They also released a new, 20B model but I think you need to log in to use it: https://www.goose.ai/playground

I think there could be a steelman why this post is LW-relevant (or at least possible variants of the post). If this Canadian precedent becomes widely adopted in the West everyone should probably do some practical preparation to ensure the security of their finances.

P.S: I live in Sweden which is an almost completely cashless society, so a similar type of government action would be disastrous. 

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