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Cross posted from my blog, Selfish Meme. I’d like to humbly propose a new virtue to add to Eliezer’s virtues of rationality — the virtue of Compartmentalization. Like the Aristoteian virtues, the virtue of Compartmentalization is a golden mean. Learning the appropriate amount of Compartmentalization, like learning the appropriate amount...

I've been trying my hand at card counting lately, and I've been doing some thinking about how a perfect gambler would act at the table. I'm not sure how to derive the optimal bet size. Overall, the expected value of blackjack is small and negative. However, there is high variance...

This question exists in the awkward space between "things undergrads google for homework" and "things on the cutting edge," so google isn't being super helpful. I have a number I want a computer to estimate. Right now I have two regression models and an insider methodology. The former can be...

As a part of my job, I recently created an econometric model. My boss wants someone to look over the math before its submitted internally throughout the company. We have a modest amount of money set aside for someone to audit the process. The model is an ARMA(2,1) with seasonality,...

I couldn't find the math for the quantum suicide and immortality thought experiment, so I'm placing it here for posterity. If one actually ran the experiment, Bayes' theorem would tell us how to update our belief in the multi-world interpretation (MWI) of quantum mechanics. I conclude by arguing that we...

Fifteen thousand years ago, our ancestors bred dogs to serve man. In merely 150 centuries, we shaped collies to herd our sheep and pekingese to sit in our emperor's sleeves. Wild wolves can't understand us, but we teach their domesticated counterparts tricks for fun. And, most importantly of all, dogs...