Carl, Robin's response to this post was a critical comment about the proposed content of Eliezer's AI's motivational system. I assumed he had a reason for making the comment, my bad.
In response to What I Think, If Not Why
In response to What I Think, If Not Why
Oh, and Friendliness theory (to the extent it can be separated from specific AI architecture details) is like the doomsday device in Dr. Strangelove: it doesn't do any good if you keep it secret! [in this case, unless Eliezer is supremely confident of programming AI himself first]
In response to What I Think, If Not Why
Regarding the 2004 comment, AGI Researcher probably was referring to the Coherent Extrapolated Volition document which was marked by Eliezer as slightly obsolete in 2004, and not a word since about any progress in the theory of Friendliness.
Robin, if you grant that a "hard takeoff" is possible, that leads to the conclusion that it will eventually be likely (humans being curious and inventive creatures). This AI would "rule the world" in the sense of having the power to do what it wants. Now, suppose you get to pick what it wants (and program that in). What would *you* pick? I can see arguing with the feasibility of hard takeoff (I don't buy it myself), but if you accept that step, Eliezer's intentions seem correct.
In response to Underconstrained Abstractions
When Robin wrote: "It is easy, way too easy, to generate new mechanisms, accounts, theories, and abstractions." he gets it exactly right (though it is not necessarily so easy to make *good* ones, that isn't really the point).
This should have been clear from the sequence on the "timeless universe" -- just as that interesting abstraction is not going to convince more than a few credulous fans of the *truth* of that abstraction, the *truth* of the magical super-FOOM is not going to convince anybody without more substantial support than an appeal to a very specific way of looking at "things in general", which few are going to share.
On a historical time frame, we can grant pretty much everything you suppose and still be left with a FOOM that "takes" a century (a mere eyeblink in comparison to everything else in history). If you want to frighten us sufficiently about a FOOM of shorter duration, you're going to have to get your hands dirtier and move from abstractions to specifics.
In response to Singletons Rule OK
The correct response to a guy scheming to take over the world someday in the future, in a pleasant and friendly way -- time permitting, between grocery shopping and cocktail parties -- is a bemused smile.
In response to The First World Takeover
The issue, of course, is not whether AI is a game-changer. The issue is whether it will be a game-changer soon and suddenly. I have been looking forward to somebody explaining why this is likely, so I've got my popcorn popped and my box of wine in the fridge.
In response to Logical or Connectionist AI?
Perhaps Eliezer goes to too many cocktail parties:
X: "Do you build neural networks or expert systems?" E: "I don't build anything. Mostly I whine about people who do." X: "Hmm. Does that pay well?"
Perhaps Bayesian Networks are the hot new delicious lemon glazing. Of course they have been around for 23 years.
In response to The Gift We Give To Tomorrow
Where does mathematics enter the universe? Is it an expression of today's overhyped worldview (evolutionary psychology) or is it actually "out there"? How about "truth"? Might beauty and justice and other things expressed in our minds exist independent of us as well, discovered by minds capable of such discovery?
In response to The Design Space of Minds-In-General
Silas: you might find this paper of some interest:
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burger flipper, making one decision that increases your average statistical lifespan (signing up for cryonics) does not compel you to trade off every other joy of living in favor of further increases. and, if the hospital or government or whoever can't be bothered to wait for my organs until i am done with them, that's their problem not mine.