One thing that's unambiguous is that many ambitious high schoolers believe that where they go to college matters a great deal. My post is intended to address this audience.
As for how and how much undergraduate institution attended impacts life outcomes, I'll be writing about the subject at great length in the future, but in response to your reaction that it doesn't matter, for now, consider the following:
- According to a survey of 1.2 million graduates of US colleges, the median mid-career incomes of colleges are $137k – $120k (#1-#5), $120k — $108k (#6 – #20), and $108k – $99k (#21 – #50). There's an obvious confounding factor of ability bias, but correlation is still evidence of some degree of causation.
- If you're going into academia, the status of the professors who write your graduate school admissions recommendation is higher if you go to a more prestigious school.
- Anecdotally, finance and management consulting firms recruit disproportionately from Harvard, Yale and Princeton
- If Sergei Brin and Larry Page hadn't gone to Stanford CS graduate school, they may not have met and may not have started Google. Similarly, if Mark Zuckerberg hadn't gone to Harvard undergraduate, he may not have had as strong programmer friends to start Facebook with (and conversely, the early employees of Facebook wouldn't have had the opportunity to work with him).
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That's a bit my point, but not entirely. I think that 10 or 20 years later, the specifics of what high schoolers did will almost never matter. (General high school work ethic and direction/ambition in life likely does matter, if only because it will correlate, in most people, with adult work ethic and ambition). To a lesser degree, 10 or 20 years down the road, it probably doesn't matter whether a student got into their top choice or second-or-third choice college. College admissions depend on a lot of random factors, like whether you were sick on the day of a high school exam worth 40% of your grade, and more time passing flattens out this randomness. Students with good work ethic and a strong direction in life will probably end up where they want to be anyway, once 10-20 years have passed. Students who don't really know what they want to do still won't know in 10 years even if they went to a prestigious college. Good work ethic and ambition is correlated with getting into prestigious colleges, but I would argue that there's less causation there than this article seems to imply.
This is just my impression, though, and I'm generally not that ambitious. It might be different for people at higher level of driven-ness and/or with different, more academic-based goals.
Vaniver: I said "it surprises me how much..." because I expect to agree with most LW posts, and I'm slightly surprised every time I don't agree. It's a good surprise.
How about this as a counter-example? This guy essentially got into Harvard because of one accident with a plagiarised essay when he was a kid (at least, that's the way he tells his story), and is now a member of faculty at Chicago. I think life outcomes might be more path-dependent than we like to admit.
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/504/how-i-got-into-college