Another Real World Example of Cognitive Bias

4 billswift 31 January 2012 10:31PM

An example of real world problems from cognitive biases:

Forensic science - Ignorance is bliss

According to Dr Rudin, the attitude that cognitive bias can somehow be willed away, by education, training or good intentions, is still pervasive.

Hat-tip to Bruce Schneier.

Study Hacks on Convenience as Anti-Productivity

4 billswift 22 January 2012 07:50PM

Distraction is a Symptom of a Deeper Problem: The Convenience Principle and the Destruction of American Productivity is a good article on distractions versus getting things done. With extra emphasis on how many of our distractions are the result of a desire for convenience rather than something more substantial.

Due to its ubiquity, it’s easy to see the convenience principle as self-evident. I argue that it’s actually contrived and harmful.

To understand this perspective, let’s contrast it to an alternative. The goal of any knowledge work organization (or student, which is really just a one-person knowledge work firm) is to produce information that is rare and valuable. With this in mind, consider the net value principle of selecting work habits. This principle says that the adoption of a work habit should be based solely on its net effect on the value produced by the organization.

This principle also sounds obvious, but when you dive deeper into its implications you’ll find that it often conflicts with the conclusions of the convenience principle. The reason for this conflict is that convenience often has nothing to do with value.

Random Flu Thoughts, including vaccination and base rates

5 billswift 11 November 2011 06:04AM

I thought some of you might find this interesting, Random Flu Thoughts. The last part has a pretty good, if elementary, illustration of the importance of base rates.

A Problem with Abbreviations and Acronyms

5 billswift 12 August 2011 08:41PM

I posted this in the comments at Eric Raymond's blog:

I am really tired of three letter acronyms. There are too few alternatives, so even though there may not be much confusion in context, the first thing that springs to mind is not likely to be correct, which brings you to a screeching halt while you think about it – like a confusing mis-spelling of a word.

For example, I hate rms, meaning Stallman, because every time I see it I first think root-mean-square which I was familiar with long before I ever used a computer. And I used to live in Prince George’s county Maryland, so everything starting with PG brings up the wrong initial response.

Then I realized some here may find it useful.

Extensive use of abbreviations and acronyms was primarily a convenience for writers, when writing was done by hand and then by typewriter, there is less justification for it now when most writing is done by computer.  And as my comment points out it is usually a negative for readers. It does benefit readers when you can convert a long phrase into a readable word, SCUBA and LASER spring to mind, but that doesn't occur often.

Science - Idealistic Versus Signaling

8 billswift 06 December 2009 01:39PM

[This is a version of an first draft essay I wrote for my blog.  I intend to write another version, but it is going to take some time to research, and I want to get this out where I can start getting some feedback and sources for further research.]

The responses to the recent leaking of the CRU's information and emails, has led me to a changed understanding of science and how it is viewed by various people, especially people who claim to be scientists. Among people who actually do or consume science there seem to be two broad views - what they "believe" about science, rather than what they normally "say" about science when asked.

The classical view, what I have begun thinking of as the idealistic view, is science as the search for reliable knowledge. This is the version most scientists (and many non-scientists) espouse when asked, but increasingly many scientists actually hold another view when their beliefs are evaluated by their actions.

This is the signaling and control view of science. This is the "social network" view that has been developed by many sociologists of science.

continue reading »

Getting Feedback by Restricting Content

1 billswift 27 November 2009 10:50PM

Sivers just posted an important point about getting feedback, to get feedback on a post, present only one idea at a time.

Original post here http://sivers.org/1idea ; Hacker News comments http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=964183 ; my post on it http://williambswift.blogspot.com/2009/11/many-ideas-or-one-idea-or-both.html

The main point of my post is: I wonder if there is any way to combine the two views?  To provide more background and context, with the necessarily larger numbers of ideas being presented, while still getting useful feedback from readers.

Friedman on Utility

2 billswift 22 November 2009 02:22PM

I just came across an essay David Friedman posted last Monday The Ambiguity of Utility that presents one of the problems I have with using utilities as the foundation of some "rational" morality.

ESR's New Take on Qualia

3 billswift 21 August 2009 09:26AM

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=1192#more-1192

ADDED:  Even if you disagree with ESR's take, and many will, this is the clearest definition I have seen on what qualia is.  So it should present a useful starting point, even for those who strongly disagree, to argue from.