Comment author: James_Miller 20 July 2014 06:59:01PM *  1 point [-]

In the Nash equilibrium, what is Player 2's belief if he gets to move? Also, the link you gave is for solving simultaneous move games, and the game I presented is a sequential move game.

Comment author: blake8086 20 July 2014 09:53:04PM *  0 points [-]

I don't think your game is sequential, if Player 2 doesn't know Player 1's move.

You really have two games:

Game 1: Sequential game of Player 1 chooses A or B/C, and determines whether game 2 occurs.

Game 2: Simultaneous game of Player 2 maybe choosing X or Y, against Player 1's unknown selection of B/C.

edit: And the equilibrium case for Player 1 in the second game is an expected payout of 2, so he should always choose A.

Comment author: blake8086 20 July 2014 06:57:16PM 2 points [-]

I think you can just compute the Nash Equilibria. For example, use this site: http://banach.lse.ac.uk/

The answer appears to be "always pick A". Player 2 will never get to move.

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