Or until the supply of low-skill workers depress the remaining low-skill wage beneath minimum wage/outsourcing. I think that we are eliminating a larger proportion of low-skill jobs per year than we ever have before, but I agree that the retraining and regulation issues you pointed out are significant.
"There's a thesis (whose most notable proponent I know is Peter Thiel, though this is not exactly how Thiel phrases it) that real, material technological change has been dying."
"We only get the Hansonian scenario if AI is broadly, steadily going past IQ 70, 80, 90, etc., making an increasingly large portion of the population fully obsolete in the sense that there... (read more)
The quine requirement seems to me to introduce non-productive complexity. If file reading is disallowed, why not just pass the program its own source code as well as its opponent's?
I think Eliezer's "We have never interacted with the paperclip maximizer before, and will never interact with it again" was intended to preclude credible binding.
It seems to me that a good model of the great recession should include as its predictions that male employment would be particularly hard-hit even among recessions (see https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AofUzoVzQEE5dFo3dlo4Ui1zbU5kZ2ZENGo4UGRKbFE#gid=0). I think this probably favors ZMP (see http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/06/survey-evidence-for-zmp-workers.html). Edit: after normalizing the data with historical context, I'm not so sure.