As someone working in special-purpose software rather than general-purpose AI, I think you drastically overestimate the difficulty of outcompeting humans in significant portions of low-wage jobs.
Plenty of low-wage jobs have been automated away by machines over the last four centuries. You don't end up permanently irrevocably unemployed until all the work you can do has been automated away.
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It seems to me that a good model of the great recession should include as its predictions that male employment would be particularly hard-hit even among recessions (see https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AofUzoVzQEE5dFo3dlo4Ui1zbU5kZ2ZENGo4UGRKbFE#gid=0). I think this probably favors ZMP (see http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/06/survey-evidence-for-zmp-workers.html). Edit: after normalizing the data with historical context, I'm not so sure.