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Comment author: Astazha 03 March 2015 11:22:54PM 3 points [-]

So... Quirrel told McGonagal that he was David Munroe, and it was implied with Madam Bones. It looks like David Munroe was killed in a battle with Voldemort, ending that noble and most ancient line, which has now been avenged by Hermione destroying Voldemort with her magic Girl-Who-Lived powers.

Are we going to get the Noble House of Granger? Does the House of Potter lose its noble status since David Munroe was apparently not previously dead to be avenged by Harry? Will they both be noble because the Wizengamot doesn't know what to do with the ambiguity?

Comment author: bramflakes 03 March 2015 11:40:01PM 1 point [-]

Where was it stated that the Potter family's noble status is a result of baby-Harry killing Voldemort?

Comment author: Salemicus 03 March 2015 12:35:06PM 3 points [-]

High conscientiousness is strongly associated with political conservatism, although there is dispute as to whether this is a direct effect of personality on ideology or a societally mediated effect (i.e. whether it is conscientiousness -> conservatism or conscientiousness -> life success -> conservatism).

(On the first point see e.g. Hirsh, J.B., DeYoung, C.G., Xu, X., & Peterson, J.B. (2010) - Compassionate liberals and polite conservatives. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 655-664. On the second point see e.g. Morton, R., Tyran, J. R., & Wengström, E. (2011). Income and ideology: How personality traits, cognitive abilities, and education shape political attitudes. Univ. of Copenhagen Dept. of Economics Discussion Paper, (11-08).

However, conservatism is negatively associated with openness to experience. I am not aware of any notable political cluster that combines the two.

Comment author: bramflakes 03 March 2015 04:02:31PM 0 points [-]

Extreme case: the Amish

Comment author: bramflakes 03 March 2015 03:57:38PM 1 point [-]

Does this have the FOOM debate in it?

In response to Imagining Scarcity
Comment author: [deleted] 02 March 2015 03:01:45AM 2 points [-]

My economics education is best described as:

Submitting...

In response to comment by [deleted] on Imagining Scarcity
Comment author: bramflakes 02 March 2015 04:51:39AM 3 points [-]

needs a "none" option

Comment author: bramflakes 02 March 2015 03:49:05AM *  4 points [-]

I remembered I have a PredictionBook account that I registered some years ago and forgot about, so I might as well get started with this whole "calibration" business.

The true solution will hinge on truly convincing Voldemort to let Harry out of the box (i.e. no “brute force” transfiguration solutions where talking is just a distraction): 95%

The true solution involves time travel: 50%

The true solution relies on Partial Transfiguration: 80% (this isn't in contradiction with #1 - it can involve Partial Transfiguration (e.g. as a threat, or a demonstration, or distraction), it just won't be the lynchpin of the entire plan)

Conditional on EY accepting a viable fan solution, it will be different to what will actually happen in the story: 75%

Comment author: bramflakes 01 March 2015 05:46:41PM 10 points [-]

EY has previously stated that HJPEV is only knows some of the content of the Sequences, because if he knew all of it he'd be too powerful to write an interesting story around. EY has also stated that Harry is now allowed to come into his full power as a rationalist, presumably meaning he can deduce anything remaining in the Sequences.

So, what things are in the Sequences that Harry hasn't yet invoked? The answer may lie there.

Comment author: solipsist 01 March 2015 02:38:47AM *  3 points [-]

Evidence we have the Harry doesn't

  • Harry's recently studied on shaped transfiguration made it to his published thought bubbles at the beginning of the final arc -- it will be used.
  • Mr. Grim will probably survive, or have a dying aria, or in some other fashion reveal the story of Peter and Sirius. EDIT I suppose someone could just recognize his dead body.
  • Snape can't just die -- he doesn't love Lilly anymore, which means something, and Voldemort returned a favor -- he's got stuff to sort out.
  • Harry hasn't used the Foreshadowed Weasley Loot in his pouch. He can use the pouch now, or use it later, but he cannot simply let the pouch fall into Voldemort's hands. Maybe Hermione could retrieve it?
  • Unusually, there is not a literary constraint that Harry survive more than to "evade immediate death". That's explicit in the author's challenge, and I think we have a good method of reviving Harry. The explicit lack of constraint is medium evidence Harry's solution will be fatal.

Beneath the moonlight glints a tiny fragment of silver, a fraction of a line...

(black robes, falling)

...blood spills out in litres, and someone screams a word.


The earlier experiment had measured whether Transfiguring a long diamond rod into a shorter diamond rod would allow it to lift a suspended heavy weight as it contracted, i.e., could you Transfigure against tension, which you in fact could.

Comment author: bramflakes 01 March 2015 03:13:09AM 9 points [-]

The Foreshadowed Weasley Loot was invoked - the gun.

Comment author: bramflakes 01 March 2015 12:05:15AM 3 points [-]

Re-reading the story, this made me smirk in light of recent revelations:

Harry scowled at her. "Fine, I won't bite anyone who doesn't bite me first."

Comment author: bramflakes 28 February 2015 10:33:29PM *  12 points [-]

(Plausible) Harry can stall for time by explaining his discovery of Mendelian magical inheritance, and the implication that magic is not a property of Wizards but rather bestowed upon them, possibly by the Atlantean Matrix lords. This is a power, or at least knowledge, the Dark Lord knows not, and it gives him time to do his Partial Transfiguration attack, while also not giving Voldemort any kind of immediate strategic advantage.

(Implausible) This would then segue into a discussion of whether Voldemort is just seeing his CEV, and simulated-Harry trying to break it. Somehow, they end up breaking the Mirror's illusion, thus destroying this "world".

Comment author: bramflakes 28 February 2015 10:07:26PM 12 points [-]

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