Comment author: DanArmak 02 October 2016 05:48:42PM 0 points [-]

This raises some interesting questions.

If the end result is fraud and bad medicine, whether you regulate more or less, is that a reason to regulate less so money isn't wasted on mandatory fraudulent studies?

Regulation raises the the barrier of entry to selling medicine. Does this reduce the amount of fraud because it's harder to to sell completely untested medicine and there's at least some quality control by the regulator? Or does it increase the amount of fraud because once a drug costs huge amounts of money to develop and approve, companies are less willing to take a loss if they discover the drug doesn't really work, and so lie more?

Comment author: buybuydandavis 03 October 2016 09:30:10AM 0 points [-]

Don't regulate efficiency. Regulate consistency of formulation, at most.

There are plenty of actors interested in efficacy. Really, everyone else involved.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 19 September 2016 06:34:47PM *  6 points [-]

First of all, IQ tests aren't designed for high IQ, so there's a lot of noise there and this would mainly be noise, if he correctly reported the results, which he doesn't.

Second, there are some careful studies of high IQ (SMPY etc) by taking the well designed SAT test, which doesn't have a very high ceiling for adults and giving it to children below the age of 13. By giving the test to representative samples, they can well characterize the threshold for the top 3%. Using self-selected samples, they think that they can characterize up to 1/10,000. In any event, within the 3% they find increasing SAT score predicts increasing probability of accomplishments of all kinds, in direct contradiction of these claims.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 02 October 2016 10:43:37AM 0 points [-]

Accomplishments?

Did that include being a part of an elite profession?

I think the original article said that smart people accomplished more in a profession, though they were in appropriately excluded.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 02 October 2016 10:32:37AM *  1 point [-]

Anyone have information on cross cultural studies on attitudes toward honesty?

Comment author: Lumifer 23 September 2016 07:08:43PM 0 points [-]

"Cheaper and better" existed before, so you are focusing on "smarter". So what is that which is smarter than humans? Point it out to me.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 02 October 2016 10:27:07AM 0 points [-]

Computers are already better than us in a ton of intelligence tasks, and that list is only going to get longer and longer.

Comment author: Lumifer 19 September 2016 03:13:47PM 0 points [-]

When other things get smarter, cheaper, better, and you don't, eventually you lose.

That's the basic luddite proposition and the problem is that the entire history of mankind says that this is not the way it works. And if you are going to pronounce But This Time It Will Be Different, you need stronger arguments.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 23 September 2016 04:37:48PM 0 points [-]

Wrong. This proposition has never been tested before. Things were not a threat to be smarter, cheaper, better before.

Humans have dominated the world through their intelligence. It's the most powerful factor of production.

You need a stronger argument than "intelligence is just the same as all other factors of production".

Comment author: gwern 19 September 2016 06:22:44PM 4 points [-]

Still, my question remains - is there real data out there to support the contention that P(elite career|IQ) has a local max and then decreases for higher IQ?

No. As I point out in my comment there, the evidence is strongly the other way: TIP/SMPY. To the extent that measures like wealth hit diminishing returns or even fall (eg Zagorsky), it has as much to do with personal choices & values as ability: the physicist who could make money on Wall Street but chooses to continue studying particles, the person who chooses to become an influential but poor writer, etc. (There are many coins of the realm, and greenbacks are but one.)

Comment author: buybuydandavis 21 September 2016 08:51:40AM 1 point [-]
Comment author: Dagon 19 September 2016 02:17:43AM 4 points [-]

Yikes. If your lunatic sensor didn't go off reading this, you should get it adjusted.

From a theoretical standpoint, democratic meritocracies should evolve five IQ defined 'castes', The Leaders, The Advisors, The Followers, The Clueless and The Excluded.

If that doesn't bother you, notice that this guy is putting a lot of weight on really simplistic statistics about the edge cases (the half-percent or less of the population which is very smart and/or is "successful in" one of his preferred "intellectually elite professions"). Oh, I see Gwern actually commented about this in a comment.

Basically, this is a lovely irony of a presumed-high-IQ author jumping to a pretty ridiculous conclusion because he's not willing/able to try to dissolve his questions and do the hard work to be rigorous in his research.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 19 September 2016 03:51:50AM 6 points [-]

If your lunatic sensor didn't go off reading this, you should get it adjusted.

A funny comment at LW.

Even lunatics can be right.

Gwern said

The assumption here is that both the general population and elite professions are described by a normal distribution (N(100,15) and N(125,6.5), respectively)

Is it? I didn't see that. assumption stated. Problem is, they didn't explicitly specify where they got their distributions. At least I don't see it.

Looking again at some of their conclusions in the preceding paragraph, it does look like they're assuming gaussians based on mean and sd a small sample, then projecting that out to the tails. Clearly malpractice.

They don't come out and say it, but the "This means that" below shows that they are extrapolating to the tails.

This means that 95% of people in intellectually elite professions have IQs between 112 and 138 99.98% have IQs between 99 and 151.

Funny that an article talking about how hard it is to be smart can be so dumb.

Still, my question remains - is there real data out there to support the contention that P(elite career|IQ) has a local max and then decreases for higher IQ?

Comment author: ChristianKl 18 September 2016 09:44:27PM 0 points [-]

Thank you. I'm not sure that Trump's techniques are all that advanced, but maybe the difference is that he's more thorough in applying them.

Trumps scores very highly on what I would call "holding the frame". He uses very simple language in an enviroment where most people wouldn't.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 18 September 2016 10:43:39PM 1 point [-]

Half of voters are dumber than average. Trump isn't shy about appealing to them. Or showing respect to them. Their votes count too. "I love the poorly educated."

It drives Republican Bow Ties insane; they're more attached to their Bow Ties than winning elections.

I think Trump scores highly on showing respect and solidarity to voters. He attacks individuals, and he attacks non voters, but he respects all voters.

Hillary I'm with Her. Basket of Deplorables.

Trump I'm with You. I'm your Voice. I respect all of you, even if you don't vote for me. I love Xs.

Comment author: Lumifer 13 September 2016 06:51:23PM 0 points [-]

Arguably, some people are already not economically viable as employees. But I don't know why most of people wouldn't be able to adapt, just like their no-longer-economically-viable peasant ancestors did.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 18 September 2016 10:35:03PM *  0 points [-]

Until now, humans always had multiple competitive advantages in sensing, intelligence, and motor control, and an integrated system for all. That competitive advantage made them the best adaptable machines available.

That advantage is going away, particularly for the less intelligent and less educated.

Horses used to compete for real work in the economy, and win. Their population dwindled in the US as they were competed out of the marketplace by machines. Horse genocide. Their domesticated population has been coming back, but now as pets more than workers, and they're still not near the numbers they used to be.

How many human pets do people want? How many people want to be a pet?

When other things get smarter, cheaper, better, and you don't, eventually you lose. And machines have advantages to employers that people don't.

Comment author: James_Miller 16 September 2016 02:40:54AM 3 points [-]

No, I think Adams assigns a higher probability to Trump winning than most people do. I think Adams accepted this theory on Trump would cost him money.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 18 September 2016 10:01:04PM 1 point [-]

Can't remember where I saw it, but I think Adams is trying to transition his career to "trusted expert".

He's willing to take the financial hit to make the transition.

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