Solomonoff induction on a random string

0 christopherj 08 April 2014 05:30AM

So, I've been hearing a lot about the awesomeness of Solomonoff induction, at least as a theoretical framework. However, my admittedly limited understanding of Solomonoff induction suggests that it would form an epicly bad hypothesis if given a random string. So my question is, if I misunderstood, how does it deal with randomness? And if I understood correctly, isn't this a rather large gap?

 

Edit: Thanks for all the comments! My new understanding is that Solomonoff induction is able to understand that it is dealing with a random string (because it finds itself giving equal weight to programs that output a 1 or a 0 for the next bit), but despite that is designed to keep looking for a pattern forever. While this is a horrible use of resources, the SI is a theoretical framework that has infinite resources, so that's a meaningless criticism. Overall this seems acceptable, though if you want to actually implement a SI you'll need to instruct it on giving up. Furthermore, the SI will not include randomness as a distinct function in its hypothesis, which could lead to improper weighting of priors, but will still have good predictive power  -- and considering that Solomonoff induction was only meant for computable functions, this is a pretty good result.

Amanda Knox Guilty Again

7 christopherj 31 January 2014 04:12AM

Today an Italian court has declared that Amanda Knox is, once again, guilty. She did not attend that trial (is not required to in Italy), so her final verdict will be either by appeal to the Supreme Court of Italy or the US extradition court. Extradition requests might be impeded due to the fact US does not have double jeopardy.

Previously on LessWrong, in The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom there was some complaint that it actually took more than an hour on the internet to thoroughly research the case. Of course, the courts have been at this since 2007...

Her co-defendant, Raffaele Sollecito, who did show up at the trial, got sentenced to 25 years, but I don't know for sure where he is now because apparently he's totally unimportant and who cares (the media's opinion, not mine). I'm fairly sure he's in Italy though. So far it seems the plan is to revoke his passport but not arrest him.

Anyone want to take their hand at making predictions?

  1. Will the final appeal find Amanda Knox and/or Raffaele Sollecito innocent or guilty?
  2. When will the trial end? edit: I mean the inevitable appeal
  3. If convicted, will the US extradite Amanda Knox?