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If utility is logarithmic in wealth, the Kelly Criterion tells me the right size of stake to put on a given bet, given the odds offered, my subjective probability and my wealth. In practice, in the real world, what's the right number to plug into the "wealth" part of the equation? My current savings? My yearly salary? The value of my home minus the money owing on it?
In response to
Open Thread, Apr. 13 - Apr. 19, 2015
In response to
Superintelligence 29: Crunch time
Does anyone know of a good short summary of the case for caring about AI risk?
It's very surprising to me that this doesn't exist yet. I hope everyone reading this and noticing the lack of answers starts writing their own answer—that way we should get at least one really good one.
In response to
Against the internal locus of control
I had much the same reaction. Thanks for writing this!
Not got good advice on the general question, but very much disagree with:
Math is instrumental and something you will pick up as you go along.
You need to self motivate yourself strongly to pick up new mathematical fields to the level where you can contribute. I'd make sure you had math courses in formal logic, whatever else you had; that would make it easier to learn the relevant stuff later. It also helps with thinking about these issues.
I studied computer science and I wish I had studied math; I think I'd find computer science much easier to "pick up as I go along".
My searches failed, the words "Conquered by Clippy" don't appear on that page! Thanks.
A simpler generalization:
Assume there are n people. Let S_i be person i's score for the event in question from your favorite proper scoring rule. Then let the total payment to person i be
(i.e. the person's score minus the average score of everyone else). If T_i is negative, that's a payment that person has to make.
This scheme is always strategyproof and budget-balanced. If the scoring rule is bounded, then the payment is bounded. If the Bregman divergence associated with the scoring rule is symmetric (like it is with the quadratic scoring rule), then each person expects the same payment (fair by your definition).
Or in the language this comment uses, each player divides the square of their surprise equally among all the other players.
In response to
Open thread, Mar. 16 - Mar. 22, 2015
Is everyone already aware of the existence of erotic fanfiction entitled Conquered by Clippy?
It takes some time for the Wiki accounts to get in sync with the LW account, just wait some time (a day?). I guess its some Troll protection.
You're giving this advice to that account handle?
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Subscribe to RSS Feed
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or at the very least: how does a new user create his/her own User / About / Talk page?
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Are you able to create it now per Douglas_Knight's comment above?