About the program Hi! We’re Chana and Aric, from the new 80,000 Hours video program. For over a decade, 80,000 Hours has been talking about the world’s most pressing problems in newsletters, articles and many extremely lengthy podcasts. But today’s world calls for video, so we’ve started a video program[1],...
My example: Marinara sauce: https://twitter.com/tresterese/status/1684024122278281217
This is the first in a series of guides for software tools to help with collaborative truth-seeking. The introduction to the sequence is available here. Guesstimate is a quantitative model-building tool built to focus on uncertainty. The interface works the same as google sheets or excel; a grid of cells...
> Me: “I don’t know what I should do next? Lots of things seem good, but I can’t think of particularly good reasons for them to cash out to what I care about.” > > Hallucinated frankenstein interlocutor: “People in your position tend to undervalue judgement and gut thinking relative...
One thing I wish I did more often is checks to see if I understand the world - Fermis, landmark numbers, predictions about how things work, etc. Along the way I started wishing I could cover up numbers on websites so I would have the chance to guess first and...
[co-written by Chana Messinger and Andrew Critch, Andrew is the originator of the idea] You (or your organization or your mission or your family or etc.) pass the “onion test” for honesty if each layer hides but does not mislead about the information hidden within. When people get to know...