In response to comment by ciphergoth on Normal Cryonics
Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 31 May 2010 09:32:52AM 1 point [-]

These must come the other way around - we must first think about what we anticipate, and our level of optimism must flow from that.

Not always - minds with the right preference produce surprising outcomes that couldn't be anticipated, of more or less anticipated good quality. (Expected Creative Surprises)

Comment author: complexmeme 02 June 2010 06:33:31PM 0 points [-]

But that property is not limited to outcomes of good quality, correct?

Comment author: ciphergoth 31 May 2010 08:10:37AM 3 points [-]

This seems an odd response. I'd understand a response that said "why on Earth do you anticipate that?" or one that said "I think I know why you anticipate that, here are some arguments against...". But "wildly optimistic" seems to me to make the mistake of offering "a literary criticism, not a scientific one" - as if we knew more about how optimistic a future to expect than what sort of future to expect. These must come the other way around - we must first think about what we anticipate, and our level of optimism must flow from that.

In response to comment by ciphergoth on Normal Cryonics
Comment author: complexmeme 02 June 2010 06:27:13PM 0 points [-]

Sure, I'm talking about heuristics. Don't think that's a mistake, though, in an instance with so many unknowns. I agree that my comment above is not a counter-argument, per se, just explaining why your statement goes over my head.

Since you prefer specificity: Why on Earth do you anticipate that?

In response to comment by mariz on Normal Cryonics
Comment author: ciphergoth 09 February 2010 08:22:29AM 5 points [-]

I think this hugely underestimates both the probability and utility of reanimation. If I am revived, I expect to live for billions of years, and to eventually know a quality of life that would be off the end of any scale we can imagine.

In response to comment by ciphergoth on Normal Cryonics
Comment author: complexmeme 31 May 2010 03:39:31AM 2 points [-]

I can't argue that cryonics would strike me as an excellent deal if I believed that, but that seems wildly optimistic.

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