Kurzweil predicted good machine language by 2004/2005 on NPR in 1999. This is close (I predicted by 2006 back in 1996 by just throwing ten years of computational power on top of what I saw that the internet could do) If you look at MT for many languages, he was a few years off - yet the vast majority thought 25 years or never. I think these predictions will look good by 2011 or 2012, and that isn't so far off since he made them in 1999.
Same for a possible luddite movement. So far, top social scientists are almost completely ignoring technological change as one sees with the health care projections... (read more)
Kurzweil predicted good machine language by 2004/2005 on NPR in 1999. This is close (I predicted by 2006 back in 1996 by just throwing ten years of computational power on top of what I saw that the internet could do) If you look at MT for many languages, he was a few years off - yet the vast majority thought 25 years or never. I think these predictions will look good by 2011 or 2012, and that isn't so far off since he made them in 1999.
Same for a possible luddite movement. So far, top social scientists are almost completely ignoring technological change as one sees with the health care projections... (read more)