In response to Decision Theory FAQ
Comment author: AlexMennen 28 February 2013 10:08:05PM *  2 points [-]

In the VNM system, utility is defined via preferences over acts rather than preferences over outcomes. To many, it seems odd to define utility with respect to preferences over risky acts. After all, even an agent who thinks she lives in a world where every act is certain to result in a known outcome could have preferences for some outcomes over others. Many would argue that utility should be defined in relation to preferences over outcomes or world-states, and that's not what the VNM system does. (Also see section 9.)

It's misleading to associate acts with lotteries over outcomes like that. In most situations, there are lotteries over outcomes that are not achievable by any act. And "lottery" makes it very clear that the probabilities of each outcome that could result are known, whereas "act" does not.

Comment author: crazy88 04 March 2013 09:12:36AM 0 points [-]

My understanding is that in the VNM system, utility is defined over lotteries. Is this the point you're contesting or are you happy with that but unhappy with the use of the word "acts" to describe these lotteries. In other words, do you think the portrayal of the VNM system as involving preferences over lotteries is wrong or do you think that this is right but the way we describe it conflates two notions that should remain distinct.

In response to Decision Theory FAQ
Comment author: AlexMennen 28 February 2013 10:08:05PM *  2 points [-]

In the VNM system, utility is defined via preferences over acts rather than preferences over outcomes. To many, it seems odd to define utility with respect to preferences over risky acts. After all, even an agent who thinks she lives in a world where every act is certain to result in a known outcome could have preferences for some outcomes over others. Many would argue that utility should be defined in relation to preferences over outcomes or world-states, and that's not what the VNM system does. (Also see section 9.)

It's misleading to associate acts with lotteries over outcomes like that. In most situations, there are lotteries over outcomes that are not achievable by any act. And "lottery" makes it very clear that the probabilities of each outcome that could result are known, whereas "act" does not.

Comment author: crazy88 04 March 2013 09:12:21AM 0 points [-]

My understanding is that in the VNM system, utility is defined over lotteries. Is this the point you're contesting or are you happy with that but unhappy with the use of the word "acts" to describe these lotteries. In other words, do you think the portrayal of the VNM system as involving preferences over lotteries is wrong or do you think that this is right but the way we describe it conflates two notions that should remain distinct.

In response to Decision Theory FAQ
Comment author: Sniffnoy 28 February 2013 10:55:53PM *  3 points [-]

VNM utility isn't any of the types you listed. Ratios (a-b)/|c-d| of VNM utilities aren't meaningful, only ratios (a-b)/|c-b|.

Comment author: crazy88 04 March 2013 08:58:09AM 1 point [-]

I think I'm missing the point of what you're saying here so I was hoping that if I explained why I don't understand, perhaps you could clarify.

VNM-utility is unique up to a positive linear transformation. When a utility function is unique up to a positive linear transformation, it is an interval (/cardinal scale). So VNM-utility is an interval scale.

This is the standard story about VNM-utility (which is to say, I'm not claiming this because it seems right to me but rather because this is the accepted mainstream view of VNM-utility). Given that this is a simple mathematical property, I presume the mainstream view will be correct.

So if your comment is correct in terms of the presentation in the FAQ then either we've failed to correctly define VNM-utility or we've failed to correctly define interval scales in accordance with the mainstream way of doing so (or, I've missed something). Are you able to pinpoint which of these you think has happened?

One final comment. I don't see why ratios (a-b)/|c-d| aren't meaningful. For these to be meaningful, it seems to me that it would need to be that [(La+k)-(Lb+k)]/[(Lc+k)-(Ld+k)] = (a-b)/(c-d) for all L and K (as VNM-utilities are unique up to a positive linear transformation) and it seems clear enough that this will be the case:

[(La+k)-(Lb+k)]/[(Lc+k)-(Ld+k)] = [L(a-b)]/[L(c-d)] = (a-b)/(c-d)

Again, could you clarify what I'm missing (I'm weaker on axiomatizations of decision theory than I am on other aspects of decision theory and you're a mathematician so I'm perfectly willing to accept that I'm missing something but it'd be great if you could explain what it is)?

In response to Decision Theory FAQ
Comment author: torekp 02 March 2013 10:39:39PM 2 points [-]

Does the horizontal axis of the decision tree in section 3 represent time? If so, I'd advocate smearing those red triangles out over the whole history of actions and events. Even though, in the particular example, it's unlikely that the agent cares about having been insured as such, apart from the monetary payoffs, in the general case agents care about the whole history. I think that forgetting this point sometimes leads to misapplications of decision theory.

In response to comment by torekp on Decision Theory FAQ
Comment author: crazy88 03 March 2013 09:57:48PM 0 points [-]

Does the horizontal axis of the decision tree in section 3 represent time?

Yes and no. Yes, because presumably the agent's end result re: house and money occurs after the fire and the fire will happen after the decision to take out insurance (otherwise, there's not much point taking out insurance). No, because the diagram isn't really about time, even if there is an accidental temporal component to it. Instead, the levels of the diagram correspond to different factors of the decision scenario: the first level is about the agent's choice, the second level about the states of natures and the third about the final outcome.

Given that this is how the diagram works, smearing out the triangles would mix up the levels and damage the clarity of the diagram. To model an agent as caring about whether they were insured or not, we would simply modify the text next to the triangles to something like "Insurance, no house and $99,900", "Insurance, house and - $100" and so on (and then we would assign different utilities to the agent based partly on whether they were insured or not as well as whether they had a house and how much money they had).

I think that forgetting this point sometimes leads to misapplications of decision theory.

I agree, though I think that talking of utility rather than money solves many of these problems. After all, utility should already take into account an agents desire to be insured etc and so talk about utility should be less likely to fall into these traps (which isn't to say there are never any problems)

In response to Decision Theory FAQ
Comment author: Pentashagon 01 March 2013 09:55:48PM 0 points [-]

The image of Ellsberg's Paradox has the picture of the Yellow/Blue bet replaced with a picture of a Yellow/Red bet. Having looked at the picture I was about to claim that it was always rational to take the R/B bet over Y/R before I read the actual description.

Comment author: crazy88 03 March 2013 09:43:04PM 1 point [-]

Will be fixed in the next update. Thanks for pointing it out.

In response to Decision Theory FAQ
Comment author: diegocaleiro 03 March 2013 08:13:27PM *  2 points [-]

Small correction, Arntzenius name has a Z (that paper is great by the way, I sent it to Yudkwosky a while ago).

There is a compliment true of both this post and of that paper, they are both very well condensed. Congratulations Luke and crazy88!

Comment author: crazy88 03 March 2013 09:36:09PM *  0 points [-]

Thanks. Will be fixed in next update. Thanks also for the positive comment.

In response to Decision Theory FAQ
Comment author: kilobug 01 March 2013 11:20:04AM *  0 points [-]

Isn't there a typo in "Experiments have shown that many people prefer (1A) to (1B) and (2B) to (2A)." ? Shouldn't it be "(2A) to (2B)" ?

Edit : hrm, no, in fact it's like http://lesswrong.com/lw/gu1/decision_theory_faq/8jav said : it should be 24 000$ instead of 27 000$ in option A, or else it makes no sense.

Comment author: crazy88 03 March 2013 09:34:47PM 0 points [-]

Thanks, as you note, the linked comment is right.

In response to Decision Theory FAQ
Comment author: somervta 01 March 2013 06:53:28AM 1 point [-]

Thus, the expected utility (EU) of choice A is, for this decision maker, (1)(1000) = 1000. Meanwhile, the EU of choice B is (0.5)(1500) + (0.5)(0) = 750. In this case, the expected utility of choice B is greater than that of choice A, even though choice B has a greater expected monetary value.

Choice A at 1000 is still greater than Choice B at 750

Comment author: crazy88 03 March 2013 09:34:08PM 0 points [-]

Thanks, will be fixed in next update.

In response to Decision Theory FAQ
Comment author: Vaniver 28 February 2013 08:16:13PM 1 point [-]

It's Stiennon, not Steinnon.

Comment author: crazy88 03 March 2013 09:15:45PM 0 points [-]

Fixed for next update. Thanks.

In response to Decision Theory FAQ
Comment author: fortyeridania 28 February 2013 01:38:56PM 2 points [-]

Typo in section 2: "attached" should read "attacked."

Comment author: crazy88 03 March 2013 09:14:38PM 0 points [-]

Thanks, fixed for the next update.

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