Has the checklist been revisited or optimized in any way since its original formulation? (By CFAR or otherwise?)
Meetup : Raleigh RTLW Meetup - Predictions Followup, Zendo
Discussion article for the meetup : Raleigh RTLW Meetup - Predictions Followup, Zendo
Let's have some discussion and exercises following up on last meetup's topic of everyday predictions. No worries if you didn't attend last time.
I'd like for everyone to make at least one testable, non-subjective prediction about this meetup itself, which we will then take a look at near the end. We'll also play some Zendo, and perhaps practice predictions and/or calibration using it!
We will meet at 7:00 at Cup a Joe in Mission Valley and may subsequently convene to Ba-Da Wings. See you there, and don't forget your pre-commitments!
Discussion article for the meetup : Raleigh RTLW Meetup - Predictions Followup, Zendo
As a little side project, I entertain myself with the idea of writing fiction that blends fantasy and mega-structures engineering.
The first step will be to ideate a consistent magic system, but of course, to make the story interesting, I'll have to come up with interesting characters and their conflicts. Do you know about any good story, long or short, that revolves around or has as background mega-structures, that I can be inspired from? Fantasy or extreme science-fiction would be the best.
Also the books of Karl Schroeder (Sun of Suns series, other standalones)
Meetup : Durham, NC: Do you even predict?
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham, NC: Do you even predict?
So we can work on calibration, but what is it good for if we don't make predictions in everyday life? This recent post from Julia Galef gives us some ideas of what might be useful to make predictions for.
http://lesswrong.com/lw/m0m/16_types_of_useful_predictions/
Let's talk about these and think about others.
See you next Thursday at Cocoa Cinnamon, 7pm!
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham, NC: Do you even predict?
Sounds interesting - would love a writeup of any solid conclusions.
As a little side project, I entertain myself with the idea of writing fiction that blends fantasy and mega-structures engineering.
The first step will be to ideate a consistent magic system, but of course, to make the story interesting, I'll have to come up with interesting characters and their conflicts. Do you know about any good story, long or short, that revolves around or has as background mega-structures, that I can be inspired from? Fantasy or extreme science-fiction would be the best.
A bit late here, but Golden Age by John C. Wright.
Coursera's Social Psychology class is starting on monday.
I decided to take this. Let me know if you'd like to connect.
I'm an EA and interested in signing up for cryonics. After cryocrastinating for a few years (ok I guess I don't get to say "after" until I actually sign up), I've realized that I should definitely sign up for life insurance, because of the ability to change the beneficiary. I place a low probability on cryonics working right now, but I can claim a charity or a Donor Advised Fund as the beneficiary until I place a sufficient probability on suspension technology working. In the future, I can change it back if I change my mind, etc.
Any issues that might come into this? If no one sees any flaws, I'm committing to sign up for life insurance with this plan in mind by or during the next open thread, and making a more prominent post about this strategy for any EA+Cryonics people.
Were your colleagues able to understand you better because of the assessment, or was it just the fact that you were discussing each others' strengths the important part and it had little to do with the assessment per se?
When I took the assessments I too found that it didn't tell me all that much about myself that I didn't already know. But it did help me in three ways:
1) I was able to express myself better and more precisely when talking about my strengths with others.
2) It turned vague notions in my head into more precise formulations that I could think about more constructively on my own.
3) Perhaps the most useful part was getting other people to take the test and then discussing their strengths with them. That was a real eye-opener. In many cases I simply could not imagine that someone else could view things so differently than me. So for me the assessment functioned as a terrific antidote to the Typical Mind Fallacy.
The value was mostly due to hearing others' opinions and perception of me, where you don't usually get that kind of feedback. The assessment really only provided the framework and context.
While I didn't really utilize them myself, I'd agree with those benefits.
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I'll do my best to get it up by the end of the week. If I forget, feel free to harass me.
I'd still be interested in seeing this.