The ABC's of Luminosity

34 Alicorn 18 March 2010 09:47PM

Sequence index: Living Luminously
Previously in sequence: Let There Be Light
Next in sequence: Lights, Camera, Action!

Affect, behavior, and circumstance interact with each other.  These interactions constitute informative patterns that you should identify and use in your luminosity project.

You may find your understanding of this post significantly improved if you read the second story from Seven Shiny Stories.

The single most effective thing you can do when seeking luminosity is to learn to correlate your ABC's, collecting data about how three interrelated items interact and appear together or separately.

A stands for "affect".  Affect is how you feel and what's on your mind.  It can be far more complicated than "enh, I'm fine" or "today I'm sad".  You have room for plenty of simultaneous emotions, and different ones can be directed at different things - being on a generally even keel about two different things isn't the same as being nervous about one and cheerful about the other, and neither state is the same as being entirely focused on one subject that thrills you to pieces.  If you're nervous about your performance evaluation but tickled pink that you just bought a shiny new consumer good and looking forward to visiting your cousin next week yet irritated that you just stubbed your toe, all while being amused by the funny song on the radio, that's this.  For the sake of the alphabet, I'm lumping in less emotionally laden cognition here, too - what thoughts occur to you, what chains of reasoning you follow, what parts of the environment catch your attention.

B stands for "behavior".  Behavior here means what you actually do.  Include as a dramatically lower-weighted category those things that you fully intended to do, and actually moved to do, but were then prevented from without from doing, or changed your mind about due to new, unanticipated information.  This is critical.  Fleeting designs and intentions cross our minds continually, and if you don't firmly and definitively place your evidential weight on the things that ultimately result in action, you will get subconsciously cherry-picked subsets of those incomplete plan-wisps.  This is particularly problematic because weaker intentions will be dissuaded by minor environmental complications at a much higher rate.  Don't worry overmuch about "real" plans that this filtering process discards.  You're trying to know yourself in toto, not yourself at your best time-slices when you valiantly meant to do good thing X and were buffetted by circumstance: if those dismissed real plans represent typical dispositions you have, then they'll have their share of the cohort of actual behavior.  Trust the law of averages.

C stands for "circumstance".  This is what's going on around you (what time is it?  what's going on in your life now and recently and in the near future - major events, minor upheavals, plans for later, what people say to you?  where are you: is it warm, cold, bright, dim, windy, calm, quiet, noisy, aromatic, odorless, featureless, busy, colorful, drab, natural, artificial, pretty, ugly, spacious, cozy, damp, dry, deserted, crowded, formal, informal, familiar, new, cluttered, or tidy?).  It also covers what you're doing and things inside you that are generally conceptualized as merely physical (are you exhausted, jetlagged, drugged, thirsty, hungry, sore, ill, drunk, energetic, itchy, limber, wired, shivering?  are you draped over a recliner, hiding in a cellar, hangliding or dancing or hiking or drumming or hoeing or diving?)  Circumstances are a bit easier to observe than affect and behavior.  If you have trouble telling where you are and what you're up to, your first priority shouldn't be luminosity.  And while we often have some trouble distinguishing between various physical ailments, there are strong pressures on our species to be able to tell when we're hungry or in pain.  Don't neglect circumstance when performing correlative exercises just because it doesn't seem as "the contents of your skull"-y.  SAD should be evidence enough that our environments can profoundly influence our feelings.  And wouldn't it be weird, after all, if you felt and acted just the same while ballroom dancing, and while setting the timer on your microwave oven to reheat soup, and while crouching on the floor after having been taken hostage at the bank?

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Two Challenges

14 Daniel_Burfoot 14 February 2010 08:31AM

Followup To: Play for a Cause, Singularity Institute $100k Challenge Grant

In the spirit of informal intellectual inquiry and friendly wagering, and with an eye toward raising a bit of money for SIAI, I offer the following two challenges to the LW community.

Challenge #1 - Bayes' Nets Skeptics' Challenge

Many LWers seem to be strong believers in the family of modeling methods variously called Bayes' Nets, belief networks, or graphical models. These methods are the topic of two SIAI-recommended books by Judea Pearl: "Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems" and "Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference".

The belief network paradigm has several attractive conceptual features. One feature is the ability of the networks to encode conditional independence relationships, which are intuitively natural and therefore attractive to humans. Often a naïve investigation of the statistical relationship between variables will produce nonsensical conclusions, and the idea of conditional independence can sometimes be used to unravel the mystery. A good example would be a data set relating to traffic accidents, which shows that red cars are more likely to be involved in accidents. But it's nearly absurd to believe that red cars are intrinsically more dangerous. Rather, red cars are preferred by young men, who tend to be reckless drivers. So the color of a car is not independent of the likelihood of a collision, but it is conditionally independent given the age and sex of the person driving the car. This relationship could be expressed by the following belief network:

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