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Comment author: dgsinclair 18 April 2013 08:43:53PM 2 points [-]

EY: I don't multiply tiny probabilities by huge impacts. I also don't get tiny probabilities by putting myself into inescapable reference classes, for this is the sort of reasoning that would screw over planets that actually were in trouble if everyone thought like that.

But isn't the latter exactly what you are doing with Pascal's wager? Underestimating the existence of God's probability so that you may retreat back to 'tiny probability'?

Comment author: dgsinclair 30 December 2011 11:35:54PM -2 points [-]

Luke, while I agree with the premise, I think that the bogie man of machines taking over may be either inevitable or impossible, depending on where you put your assumptions.

In many ways, machines have BEEN smarter and stronger than humans already. Machine AI may make individual or groups of machines formidable, but until they can reason, replicate, and trust or deceive, I'm not sure they have much of a chance.