I'm going again, it was too fun/interesting to miss.

Count me in.

Around São Paulo, yes. Around LW, not much anymore, I mostly read it via feed reader.

This model seems to be reducible to "people will eat what they prefer".

A good model would be able to reduce the number of bits to describe a behavior, if the model requires to keep a log (e.g. what particular humans prefer to eat) to predict something, it's not much less complex (i.e. bit encoding) than the behavior.

I agree vague is not a good word choice. Irrelevant (using relevancy as it's used to describe search results) is a better word.

I would classify such kinds of predictions as vague, after all they match equally well for every human being in almost any condition.

There's no way to create a non-vague, predictive, model of human behavior, because most human behavior is (mostly) random reaction to stimuli.

Corollary 1: most models explain after the fact and require both the subject to be aware of the model's predictions and the predictions to be vague and underspecified enough to make astrology seems like spacecraft engineering.

Corollary 2: we'll spend most of our time in drama trying to understand the real reasons or the truth about our/other's behavior even when presented with evidence pointing to the randomness of our actions. After the fact we'll fabricate an elaborate theory to explain everything, including the evidence, but this theory will have no predictive power.

It doesn't seem to me that you have an accurate description of what a super-smart person would do/say other than match your beliefs and providing insightful thought. For example, do you expect super-smart people to be proficient in most areas of knowledge or even able to quickly grasp the foundations of different areas through super-abstraction? Would you expect them to be mostly unbiased? Your definition needs to be more objective and predictive, instead of descriptive.

How would you describe the writing patterns of super-smart people? Similarly, how would meeting/talking/debating them would feel like?