Comment author: brazil84 19 December 2009 02:40:10AM 1 point [-]

Mainly because (1) there is evidence of alteration/staging; and (2) Knox and Sollecito are still unable to give accounts of the evening (and next morning) which are reasonably coherent and consistent.

Comment author: erica 19 December 2009 10:24:19AM -2 points [-]

I just want to say thanks for your posts, I have found them very interesting.

If the trial has been corrupted then one has to ask why the judge(s) involved would collude in such high profile corruption - that in itself seems unlikely unless there is an unsopken intention to reverse the verdict at appeal, having given the US 'a dose of it's own'. But that seems far fetched. Corruption happens for a reason and those reasons are also traceable.

Your argument that conviction was secured on the basis of a fanciful explanation but not without reason is persuasive. I too am of the opinion that things went on but I'm not sure that makes A and R as evil as they are portrayed or even guitly of murder.

But mainly, your posts are valuable because, without being able to argue the case mathematically, something clearly is wrong with this Bayesian worldview because it is not explaining life, and if Bayesian rationality is the key to 'knowing', as we are led to believe, then I would not be left feeling that many posts that adhere strictly to Bayesian reasoning are somehow missing the point. And I don't think that is because I am an evolutionary throw-back, I think it is because I have a good sense of things not sounding right - I have that feeling with the Knox trial and with this blog. Ciao

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 December 2009 04:46:32AM 2 points [-]

The problem is that finding Guede's semen inside Meredith is not evidence against the hypothesis "Guede and Knox murdered Meredith". Guede's already been caught, too. So now the question is whether to devote any of our remaining attention to trying to catch Knox, and the insufficient/disconfirmatory evidence for this fails to surpass the prior implausibility of the conspiracy hypothesis - it has nothing to do with how hard Guede was caught.

Comment author: erica 19 December 2009 10:11:24AM 0 points [-]

Are you sure semen was found? I've read elsewhere this was a manual rape - still leaves DNA inside but not necc. semen.

Comment author: erica 18 December 2009 11:07:43AM 0 points [-]

Thanks for the Welcome. I laughed at the illustration.

  • I'm in the UK, are most other people in the US?
Comment author: erica 18 December 2009 12:21:24PM 1 point [-]

Thanks for your replies. Orientation increased to 37% :)

Comment author: erica 18 December 2009 11:18:26AM 0 points [-]

I'd love to know what Amanda and Raffaelle got up to that night but the lack of DNA in the room and on the body suggests that whatever they did, they weren't in the room or directly responsible for the death, and nor did they go back in the room to move the body around - that would require head to toe covering. But...

Did Amanda and Raffaelle sit in the flat egging Guede on, not realising the screams were real? Or, worse, did they laugh knowlingly when they heard screams?

What would they be guilty of? Would either scenario count as murder?

Did they feel so sure that they would be acquitted that they didn't own up to being in the flat?

If they owned up now, could the courts increase the sentence to 30 years for having perjured themselves, even if it wasn't classed as murder?

Or, are they just two idiotic and/or idealistic students who don't make sense, can't make sense?

Comment author: RichardKennaway 16 December 2009 10:46:47AM *  8 points [-]

And why does Meredith's mother now say that querying the verdict is making her unhappy? Would she not care if an innocent went to jail?

I've often seen that pattern. When someone is murdered and someone is convicted for it, the bereaved insist, no matter how controversial the trial, that justice has been done and that any querying of the verdict is an insult to the memory of their loved one.

It's completely barking mad, but then, people are crazy.

(Edit:) And welcome, erica.

Comment author: erica 18 December 2009 11:07:43AM 0 points [-]

Thanks for the Welcome. I laughed at the illustration.

  • I'm in the UK, are most other people in the US?
Comment author: baloney 17 December 2009 08:09:50PM -2 points [-]

Erica Are you being ironic?, "But...she did not study languages or develop an interest in creative writing."

Comment author: erica 18 December 2009 11:02:17AM 2 points [-]

I don't think I'm being ironic. First, I don't think character analysis is necessary in this case but as the prosecution and support for the verdict both rely on character analysis, I have attempted to put forward an alternative analysis that depicts Amanda as cosseted, well-educated, literary and imaginative. This is the opposite of Rosemary West, so I raise the question as to whether the two styles of writing are directly comparable.

Comment author: erica 16 December 2009 09:08:41AM 9 points [-]

Familiarity pretty good - I've read the Wiki page, revisited several articles from when the murder was first discovered and I watched Sky news the day of the verdict and saw/heard Prof of Criminology, feminist journalist, UK barrister and two Italian barristers. I frequently search the web, hence I found this site.

(I don't understand the up/down system.)

I find the logic of the murder disturbing - if the murder was a game gone wrong, then it was not premeditated, so unlikely gloves were worn. If bleach was used to clean, then why was Guede's DNA all over the body and room? The only DNA evidence for Raffaelle is highly suspect and a physical impossibility to leave DNA only in that one place I would think. That really is the beginning and the end of it.

The Prof of Criminology's view I have to take seriously. But, in saying that Amanda's diary reads like a gap-year Rosemary West he failed to draw contrasts as well as comparisons. Rosemary West was severely abused from early chidlhood, she did not study languages or develop an interest in creative writing.

I have an alternative scenario - a young woman from a comfortable secure All-American upbringing, who has no idea of the level of corruption and politicking in the world, visits Italy and discovers the magic of old Europe and the unexpected appeal of herself to Italian men - the intoxicating culture of Italy, the constant calls of 'Ciao Bella' from men lounging in doorways - and, being naive and unwordly, behaves carelessly and without circumspection not realising that beneath the relaxed veneer of Italian culture lies a strict code of conduct, especially for women. Amanda has behaved exactly as you would expect of an innocent girl with that background - she simply could not comprehend that she could be convicted for a crime that she did not commit and didn't take her interview with the police seriously.

Given the above scenario, when asked to imagine what might have happened that night, Amanda may well have enjoyed being able to apply her obvious interest in macarbre story telling. I myself wonder at the violence depicted in much fiction but being able to express the human condition in fiction is important and we should not rush to criminalise the use of the macarbre in fiction.

I don't want to cast aspersions but I found it very strange that Meredith's parents did not talk at the press conference and I started to find their silence spooky rather than dignified. I also think that Meredith had made it clear to her family that she did not at all like her flatmate's arrogant American 'no one can touch me' attitude. Supposing the Italian barrister dangled the potential for millions in compensation in front of them? How would they feel?

And why does Meredith's mother now say that querying the verdict is making her unhappy? Would she not care if an innocent went to jail? And surely the pain of her daughter's death is not going to disappear from her mind even when the story disappears from the media? It starts to sound more like a desire for revenge than for justice.

Finally, I've worked with about a dozen Italian professionals and was astounded by their anti-American feeling. There have been US bases in Italy since WWII and Italy led the anti-Iraq war movement with their colourful Pace flags.

I don't know what Amanda and Raffaelle were up to that night. I think they were in the first bloom of attraction to each other, on drugs (perhaps more than just cannabis), and not being particularly sensible. But the case is not beyond reasonable doubt, neither is accusing the other, and they have served 2 years in jail already.

PS. this site is a very welcome find - it seems that many, many people these days prefer 'opinion' to logic or standards - I call it the Strictly Syndrome - a cult of personality combined with sectarian affiliations - it's really quite scary to hear how little people care about evidence, universal standards or intelligent debate nowadays. Bring back the Enlightenment, I've had enough of postmodernism!

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