Comment author: thomblake 30 July 2012 02:15:56PM 0 points [-]

However, suppose the weatherman had said that since it's going to be sunny tomorrow, it would be a good day to go out and murder people, and gives a logical argument to support that position? Should the woman still go with what the weatherman says, if she can't find a flaw in his argument?

Well, I wouldn't expect a weatherman to be an expert on murder, but he is an expert on weather, and due to the interdisciplinary nature of murder-weather-forecasting, I would not expect there to be many people in a better position to predict which days are good for murder.

If the woman is an expert on murder, or if she has conflicting reports from murder experts (e.g. "Only murder on dark and stormy nights") she might have reason to doubt the weatherman's claim about sunny days.

Comment author: fare 03 August 2012 05:05:23PM 1 point [-]

You don't get it. Murder is NOT an abstract variable in the previous comment. It's a constant.

Comment author: gwern 27 July 2012 05:49:32PM 4 points [-]

The problem is, Stanovich's work (based on his 2010 book which I have) doesn't support the thesis that intelligent people have more false beliefs or biases than stupid people, or just as many; they have fewer in all but a bare handful of carefully chosen biases where they're equal or a little worse.

If one had to summarize his work and the associated work in these terms, one could say that it's all about the question 'why does IQ not correlate at 1.0 with better beliefs but instead 0.5 or lower?'

Comment author: fare 02 August 2012 02:29:06PM *  1 point [-]

No, no, no. The point is: for any fixed set of questions, higher IQ will be positively correlated with believing in better answers. Yet people with higher IQ will develop beliefs about new, bigger and grander questions; and all in all, on their biggest and grandest questions, they fail just as much as lower-IQ people on theirs. Just with more impact. Including more criminal impact when these theories, as they are wont to do, imply the shepherding (and often barbecuing) the mass of their intellectual inferiors.

Comment author: jimrandomh 02 August 2012 04:20:31AM 2 points [-]

You seem to have misunderstood what I wrote. My comment was meta - it is about the structure that peoples' beliefs ought to have. I changed the topic entirely, using your post as a source of inspiration and examples. If you read it expecting a rebuttal, then it wasn't a very good one. It probably skewed your interpretation a lot, because that's not what it was at all. It talks about specific beliefs only as examples, and not to endorse or oppose them.

Please reread my earlier comment with adjusted priors, and try to do so calmly, in your most analytical state of mind.

Comment author: fare 02 August 2012 02:22:30PM 1 point [-]

Once again, "ideology" is but an insult for theories you don't like. All in all your post is but gloating at being more subtle than other people. Speak of an "analytical" state of mind.

But granted - you ARE more subtle than most. And yet, you still maintain blissful ignorance of some basic laws of human action.

PS: the last paragraph of your previous comment suggests that if you're into computer science, you might be interested Gerald J. Sussman's talk about "degeneracy".

Comment author: buybuydandavis 28 July 2012 03:00:42AM 2 points [-]

If you think that control of universities by left-wing ideologists...

I don't believe that's true in the engineering or business schools.

Comment author: fare 02 August 2012 03:47:11AM 0 points [-]

Even in engineering and business schools, socialism is stronger than it ought to be and plays a strong role of censorship, "affirmative" action, selection of who's allowed to rise, etc. But it has less impact there, because (1) confrontation to reality and reason weakens it, (2) engineering is about control over nature, not over men, therefore politics isn't directly relevant, (3) power-mongers want to maximize their impact as such, therefore flock to other schools.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 28 July 2012 03:16:31AM 3 points [-]

As something of a fan of Hayek, I'll take this opportunity to disagree.

The mistaken assumption is that a meme that survives must be good for "us". The meme's that survive are the ones that survive. Being good for us is just one of the many competing forces effecting memetic fitness.

I have a simpler rejection of fancy shmancy intellectualism. The probability that you just don't understand the argument should be weighed against your prior that what it seems to imply to you is in fact true. Often it's more likely that you're just confused.

Comment author: fare 02 August 2012 03:42:10AM 2 points [-]

I assume no such causation. I do assume a correlation, which is brought about by evolution: cooperation beats conflict.

I don't understand your "simpler rejection" as stated.

Comment author: jimrandomh 27 July 2012 06:33:29AM *  12 points [-]

You start with some good examples, which I think share a pattern. First, you have someone who takes a valid principle, "suffering is bad", and promotes it from "thing that is generally true" to "ultimate answer", and proceeds to reason off the rails. Then you have someone who takes "understanding math is good", and does the same thing, with less spectacular (but still bad) results. Then again with "happiness is good". History is rife with additional examples, and not just in moral philosophy; the same thing happens in technical topics, too.

The lesson I take from this is that you can't take any statement, no matter how true, and elevate it to uncompromisable ideology. You need a detailed and complex view of the world incorporating many principles at once, which will sometimes conflict and which you will have to reconcile and balance. So suffering is bad, but not so bad that it's worth sacrificing the universe to get rid of it; math is cool, but not so cool that it displaces all my other priorities; happiness is good, but if something looks like a weird corner-case of the word "happiness" it might be bad. (And a definition of the word "happiness" which provides a clear yes/no answer to whether wireheading is happiness doesn't help at all, because the problem is with the concept, and the applicability of all the reasoning that went into beliefs about that concept, not in the word itself). When any two principles from the collection disagree on something, they are both called into question, not for their validity as general principles, but for their applicability to that particular case.

So when you go on to say:

Whatever the one's prevailing or dissenting opinions, the initiation of force is never to be allowed as a means to further any ends.

I say: that principle belongs in the pool with the others. When the no-force principle conflicts with the extrapolated consequences of "suffering is bad" and "happiness is good" (which extrapolate to "destroy the universe" and "wirehead everyone", respectively), this suggests serious problems with those extrapolations.

But that doesn't mean you can elevate it to uncompromisable ideology. Initiating force is bad, but I wouldn't sacrifice the universe to avoid it. Minimizing the amount of force-initiation in the world doesn't displace all my other priorities. And if something looks like a weird corner case of the word "force", it might be fine.

The defense against crackpottery is not to choose the perfect principle, because there probably isn't one; it's to have a model with enough principles in it that if a corner case makes any one principle go awry, or matches a principle but fails to match the arguments that justified it, then reasoning won't go too terribly wrong.

Comment author: fare 02 August 2012 03:36:12AM -2 points [-]

Accusing me of presenting my principle as "Perfect" - what a great combination of 1- straw man argument -- putting a nirvana fallacy in my mouth 2- special pleading -- the double standard of requiring my principles to be "perfect" but not yours.

Your belief that force can ever have large-scale positive consequences denotes a singular blindness to the Law of Eristic Escalation, and/or the Law of Bitur-Camember http://fare.livejournal.com/32611.html It's OK to be ignorant - but lame to laugh at those who aren't because they aren't.

Comment author: Alejandro1 27 July 2012 06:03:04AM *  19 points [-]

There is a deep tension, indeed almost a contradiction, between two aspects of your essay. One one hand, you argue against the conclusions of Bob (from a beautiful, simple mathematical structure), of Jeff's acquaintance (from the simple, appealing ethical principle "minimize suffering") and of Jeff (from the simple, appealing ethical principle "maximize happiness"). You make the point that a Hayekian conservative spirit, that keeps in mind traditions, common sense and long-evolved intuitions and weighs them above logical principles appealing to intelligent people, should be used a warning light to reject those kind of philosophies. This is similar to what is sometimes loosely called the "outside view" here, and I basically agree with it, though it must be used carefully and on a case-by-case basis.

But just after that, you state a Libertarian principle, a Universal Law of non-aggression against persons and their property, and go so far as to assert that it applies to any kind of sentient being, including aliens and AIs. Now, I don't want to be dragged into a discussion about libertarianism, which would be against the "no-politics" rules of Less Wrong(1). But I hope you realize that this "Universal Law" is a simple abstract principle of the kind that appeals to intelligent people, and as such not so different from "maximize happiness" or "minimize suffering". The actual complex web of traditions, evolved intuitions and "common sense" of mankind is very far removed from these super-simple abstract principles. Rearranging any actual society to conform to the Libertarian principle. regardless of its merits, would require a huge upheaval of long-entrenched laws, customs and expectations, and as such should be rejected by the "outside view" heuristic that you preach in the first part of the essay. (ETA: see also Scott Aaronson's description of libertarians as "bullet-swallowers"--the same intellectual vice, essentially, that you attribute to Bob, Jeff, and his acquaintance)

(1)Following these rules, I would suggest you to remove the last paragraph's references to Obama and his Ayers connection, which does very little for the global points of your essay. It is the kind of thing that produces a strong, negative mind-killing reaction against your post to any reader who does not belong to a particular right-wing subculture.

Comment author: fare 02 August 2012 03:29:12AM -2 points [-]

Yes, the Universal Law applies to any kind of sentient being. See for instance my essay "Identity, Immunity, Law and Aggression on the Rapacious Hardscrapple Frontier" http://fare.tunes.org/liberty/hardscrapple.html

And no, I never argued that "if it appeals to intelligent people, it's wrong". Your implied argument is a straw man. If you read carefully, I give a very specific criterion on how one may lift the burden of the proof against tradition.

Who of the proponents of a theory and its opponents are bullet-swallowers? Each thinks it's the other. Using that as an argument is begging the question.

The Criminal Stupidity of Intelligent People

-14 fare 27 July 2012 04:08AM

What always fascinates me when I meet a group of very intelligent people is the very elaborate bullshit that they believe in. The naive theory of intelligence I first posited when I was a kid was that intelligence is a tool to avoid false beliefs and find the truth. Surrounded by mediocre minds who held obviously absurd beliefs not only without the ability to coherently argue why they held these beliefs, but without the ability of even understanding basic arguments about them, I believed as a child that the vast amount of superstition and false beliefs in the world was due to people both being stupid and following the authority of insufficiently intelligent teachers and leaders. More intelligent people and people following more intelligent authorities would thus automatically hold better beliefs and avoid disproven superstitions. However, as a grown up, I got the opportunity to actually meet and mingle with a whole lot of intelligent people, including many whom I readily admit are vastly more intelligent than I am. And then I had to find that my naive theory of intelligence didn't hold water: intelligent people were just as prone as less intelligent people to believing in obviously absurd superstitions. Only their superstitions would be much more complex, elaborate, rich, and far reaching than an inferior mind's superstitions.

For instance, I remember a ride with an extremely intelligent and interesting man (RIP Bob Desmarets); he was describing his current pursuit, which struck me as a brilliant mathematical mind's version of mysticism: the difference was that instead of marveling at some trivial picture of an incarnate god like some lesser minds might have done, he was seeking some Ultimate Answer to the Universe in the branching structures of ever more complex algebras of numbers, real numbers, complex numbers, quaternions, octonions, and beyond, in ever higher dimensions (notably in relation to super-string theories). I have no doubt that there is something deep, and probably enlightening and even useful in such theories, and I readily disqualify myself as to the ability to judge the contributions that my friend made to the topic from a technical point of view; no doubt they were brilliant in one way or another. Yet, the way he was talking about this topic immediately triggered the "crackpot" flag; he was looking there for much more than could possibly be found, and anyone (like me) capable of acknowledging being too stupid to fathom the Full Glory of these number structures yet able to find some meaning in life could have told that no, this topic doesn't hold key to The Ultimate Source of All Meaning in Life. Bob's intellectual quest, as exaggeratedly exalted as it might have been, and as interesting as it was to his own exceptional mind, was on the grand scale of things but some modestly useful research venue at best, and an inoffensive pastime at worst. Perhaps Bob could conceivably used his vast intellect towards pursuits more useful to you and I; but we didn't own his mind, and we have no claims to lay on the wonders he could have created but failed to by putting his mind into one quest rather than another. First, Do No Harm. Bob didn't harm any one, and his ideas certainly contained no hint of any harm to be done to anyone.

Unhappily, that is not always the case of every intelligent man's fantasies. Let's consider a discussion I was having recently, that prompted this article. Last week, I joined a dinner-discussion with a lesswrong meetup group: radical believers in rationality and its power to improve life in general and one's own life in particular. As you can imagine, the attendance was largely, though not exclusively, composed of male computer geeks. But then again, any club that accepts me as a member will probably be biased that way: birds of the feather flock together. No doubt, there are plenty of meetup groups with the opposite bias, gathering desperately non-geeky females to the almost exclusion of males. Anyway, the theme of the dinner was "optimal philanthropy", or how to give time and money to charities in a way that maximizes the positive impact of your giving. So far, so good.

But then, I found myself in a most disturbing private side conversation with the organizer, Jeff Kaufman (a colleague, I later found out), someone I strongly suspect of being in many ways saner and more intelligent than I am. While discussing utilitarian ways of evaluating charitable action, he at some point mentioned some quite intelligent acquaintance of his who believed that morality was about minimizing the suffering of living beings; from there, that acquaintance logically concluded that wiping out all life on earth with sufficient nuclear bombs (or with grey goo) in a surprise simultaneous attack would be the best possible way to optimize the world, though one would have to make triple sure of involving enough destructive power that not one single strand of life should survive or else the suffering would go on and the destruction would have been just gratuitous suffering. We all seemed to agree that this was an absurd and criminal idea, and that we should be glad the guy, brilliant as he may be, doesn't remotely have the ability to implement his crazy scheme; we shuddered though at the idea of a future super-human AI having this ability and being convinced of such theories.

That was not the disturbing part though. What tipped me off was when Jeff, taking the "opposite" stance of "happiness maximization" to the discussed acquaintance's "suffering minimization", seriously defended the concept of wireheading as a way that happiness may be maximized in the future: putting humans into vats where the pleasure centers of their brains will be constantly stimulated, possibly using force. Or perhaps instead of humans, using rats, or ants, or some brain cell cultures or perhaps nano-electronic simulations of such electro-chemical stimulations; in the latter cases, biological humans, being less-efficient forms of happiness substrate, would be done away with or at least not renewed as embodiments of the Holy Happiness to be maximized. He even wrote at least two blog posts on this theme: hedonic vs preference utilitarianism in the Context of Wireheading, and Value of a Computational Process. In the former, he admits to some doubts, but concludes that the ways a value system grounded on happiness differ from my intuitions are problems with my intutions.

I expect that most people would, and rightfully so, find Jeff's ideas as well as his acquaintance's ideas to be ridiculous and absurd on their face; they would judge any attempt to use force to implement them as criminal, and they would consider their fantasied implemention to be the worst of possible mass murders. Of course, I also expect that most people would be incapable of arguing their case rationally against Jeff, who is much more intelligent, educated and knowledgeable in these issues than they are. And yet, though most of them would have to admit their lack of understanding and their absence of a rational response to his arguments, they'd be completely right in rejecting his conclusion and in refusing to hear his arguments, for he is indeed the sorely mistaken one, despite his vast intellectual advantages.

I wilfully defer any detailed rational refutation of Jeff's idea to some future article (can you without reading mine write a valuable one?). In this post, I rather want to address the meta-point of how to address the seemingly crazy ideas of our intellectual superiors. First, I will invoke the "conservative" principle (as I'll call it), well defended by Hayek (who is not a conservative): we must often reject the well-argued ideas of intelligent people, sometimes more intelligent than we are, sometimes without giving them a detailed hearing, and instead stand by our intuitions, traditions and secular rules, that are the stable fruit of millenia of evolution. We should not lightly reject those rules, certainly not without a clear testable understanding of why they were valid where they are known to have worked, and why they would cease to be in another context. Second, we should not hesitate to use proxy in an eristic argument: if we are to bow to the superior intellect of our better, it should not be without having pitted said presumed intellects against each other in a fair debate to find out if indeed there is a better whose superior arguments can convince the others or reveal their error. Last but not least, beyond mere conservatism or debate, mine is the Libertarian point: there is Universal Law, that everyone must respect, whereby peace between humans is possible inasmuch and only inasmuch as they don't initiate violence against other persons and their property. And as I have argued in another previous essay (hardscrapple), this generalizes to maintaining peace between sentient beings of all levels of intelligence, including any future AI that Jeff may be prone to consider. Whatever the one's prevailing or dissenting opinions, the initiation of force is never to be allowed as a means to further any ends. Rather than doubt his intuition, Jeff should have been tipped that his theory was wrong and taken out of context by the very fact that it advocates or condones massive violation of this Universal Law. Criminal urges, mass-criminal at that, are a strong stench that should alert anyone that some ideas have gone astray, even when it might not be immediately obvious where exactly they started parting from the path of sanity.

Now, you might ask, it is good and well to poke fun at the crazy ideas that some otherwise intelligent people may hold; it may even allow one to wallow in a somewhat justified sense of intellectual superiority over people who otherwise are actually and objectively so one's intellectual superiors. But is there a deeper point? Is it relevant what crazy ideas intellectuals hold, whether inoffensive or criminal? Sadly, it is. As John McCarthy put it, "Soccer riots kill at most tens. Intellectuals' ideological riots sometimes kill millions." Jeff's particular crazy idea may be mostly harmless: the criminal raptures of the overintelligent nerd, that are so elaborate as to be unfathomable to 99.9% of the population, are unlikely to ever spread to enough of the power elite to be implemented. That is, unless by some exceptional circumstance there is a short and brutal transition to power by some overfriendly AI programmed to follow such an idea. On the other hand, the criminal raptures of a majority of the more mediocre intellectual elite, when they further possess simple variants that can intoxicate the ignorant and stupid masses, are not just theoretically able to lead to mass murder, but have historically been the source of all large-scale mass murders so far; and these mass murders can be counted in hundreds of millions, over the XXth century only, just for Socialism. Nationalism, Islamism and Social-democracy (the attenuated strand of socialism that now reigns in Western "Democracies") count their victims in millions only. And every time, the most well-meaning of intellectuals build and spread the ideologies of these mass-murders. A little initial conceptual mistake, properly amplified, can do that.

And so I am reminded of the meetings of some communist cells that I attended out of curiosity when I was in high-school. Indeed, trotskyites are very openly recruiting in "good" French high-schools. It was amazing the kind of non-sensical crap that these obviously above-average adolescent could repeat. "The morale of the workers is low." Whoa. Or "The petite-bourgeoisie" is plotting this or that. Apparently, grossly cut social classes spanning millions of individuals act as one man, either afflicted with depression or making machiavelian plans. Not that any of them knew much of either salaried workers or entrepreneurs but through one-sided socialist literature. If you think that the nonsense of the intellectual elite is inoffensive, consider what happens when some of them actually act on those nonsensical beliefs: you get terrorists who kill tens of people; when they lead ignorant masses, they end up killing millions of people in extermination camps or plain massacres. And when they take control of entire universities, and train generations of scholars, who teach generations of bureaucrats, politicians, journalists, then you suddenly find that all politicians agree on slowly implementing the same totalitarian agenda, one way or another.

If you think that control of universities by left-wing ideologists is just a French thing, consider how for instance, America just elected a president whose mentor and ghostwriter was the chief of a terrorist group made of Ivy League educated intellectuals, whose overriding concern about the country they claimed to rule was how to slaughter ten percent of its population in concentration camps. And then consider that the policies of this president's "right wing" opponent are indistinguishable from the policies of said president. The violent revolution has given way to the slow replacement of the elite, towards the same totalitarian ideals, coming to you slowly but relentlessly rather than through a single mass criminal event. Welcome to a world where the crazy ideas of intelligent people are imposed by force, cunning and superior organization upon a mass of less intelligent yet less crazy people.

Ideas have consequences. That's why everyone Needs Philosophy.

Crossposted from my livejournal: http://fare.livejournal.com/168376.html

Comment author: fare 09 July 2012 06:41:10PM 0 points [-]

If I put some em in a context that makes him happy and that somehow "counts", what if I take the one em whose happiness is maximal (by size / cost / whatever measure), then duplicate the very same em, in the very same context, ad infinitum, and have 1 gazillion copies of him, e.g. being repeatedly jerked off by $starlet ? Does each new copy count as much as the original? Why? Why not? What if the program was run on a tandem computer for redundancy, with two processors in lock step doing the same computation? Is it redundant in that case, or does it count double? What if I build a virtual machine in which this entire simulation happens in one instruction? Since the simulation has no I/O, what if my optimized implementation does away with it?

You're still deep into the fairy dust theory of utility. More nano-paperclips, please!

Comment author: fare 09 July 2012 06:33:02PM 7 points [-]

You should DEFINITELY read Greg Egan's "Permutation City", where he explores all kinds of such concept even to the point of absurdity -- but you are the one who gets to decide where it starts to be absurd and why; he just does the exploring in a delicious SF novel.

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