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Hm. Thank you for taking the time to explain; I definitely appreciate it. Your experience and values seem to differ from mine in a number of ways; that does seem to be what's behind the OP's advice being of different utility to us.
As for the bit about accuracy of gut feelings: I take your point about them being a good signal to investigate further. I do remain quite dubious about the use of the gut feelings directly, in place of explicit reasoning. I would very much like to see some data about this.
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The domain of "behaving in such a way as to gain and maintain an advantageous position in social interactions" is very different from other domains, like "diagnose and repair difficulties with computer equipment", "diagnose and treat afflictions in human beings", "understand mathematical concepts", and almost anything else. It seems to me that the domain of social interactions with other humans is in fact a unique domain, not properly comparable (in the context of the current discussion) to anything else.
Certainly gut feelings are key in social interactions; in fact, the most charismatic, likable, and socially successful people do what they do largely unconsciously, and are almost entirely unable not only to explain their technique to others, but even to recognize there is a technique, that other people are not as skilled at using.
My question is, how accurate are gut feelings in other domains — especially those domains where there is are objectively right answers and wrong answers, and where it is possible and even easy, in principle, to compare the answer you get from your gut feeling to the actual right answer? In the treatment of computers and people, in math, in science, in engineering? (Answering this question requires data!)
What's more: I really don't think that this
is an accurate characterization of where gut feelings in successful social interactors come from. It's been my experience that such instinctual social success is largely innate. Oh sure, it may be honed, but saying that the gut feeling is a synthesis of years of experience is just almost certainly not what's going on there. More likely it's a naturally great ability to model others, to respond (unconsciously) to nonverbal cues, etc.
How about sports and fast paced games?
Players are often required to make decisions with no time whatsoever to plan. For example, you might find yourself surrounded by enemies with no warning.
You need to know whether to run on foot, to teleport away, or to fight.
The difference between reacting in a third of a second and a fourth of a second could mean life or death.
Success in this situation, assuming it's possible, is dependent on your experience in similar situations and your instinctual reaction. Since you do not have the time to think, your decision is almost guaranteed to be imperfect, but any improvement in it is highly beneficial.
Obviously, the same would often apply in war or in certain crisis situations.
You mention lots of fields (computers, math, science, engineering) where your argument is almost tautological: in a case where you have time to reconsider each decision, a slow but reliable and precise method is better than a snap judgment. Yes, I would agree with you, and I would also agree that logical thinking is better than intuitive thinking in many, many situations.
Are you suggesting that the ability to model others or respond to nonverbal cues is innate, rather than learned? I would definitely disagree, though proving it would be difficult. I suspect that it's a matter of internalizing the results of numerous actions and reactions in different situations. In my experience, it's often developed by people who travel lots or are otherwise exposed to tons of different people in a situation where being friendly and getting on their good side is very helpful. Some of them, pretty bad at socializing before they were in such a situation (and really gave it the necessary effort to learn).
I disagree, however, when you say that being socially successful is innate.