Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 17 September 2014 04:19:24AM 4 points [-]

It's an interesting story, but I think in practice the best way to learn to control owls would be to precommit to kill the young owl before it got too large, experiment with it, and through experimenting with and killing many young owls, learn how to tame and control owls reliably. Doing owl control research in the absence of a young owl to experiment on seems unlikely to yield much of use--imagine trying to study zoology without having any animals or botany without having any plants.

Comment author: gallabytes 17 September 2014 05:02:04AM 2 points [-]

True in the case of owls, though in the case of AI we have the luxury and challenge of making the thing from scratch. If all goes correctly, it'll be born tamed.

Comment author: kgalias 16 September 2014 11:27:20PM 2 points [-]

I'm just trying to make sure I understand - I remember being confused about the Flynn effect and about what Katja asked above.

How does the Flynn effect affect our belief in the hypothesis of accumulation?

Comment author: gallabytes 17 September 2014 02:25:08AM 2 points [-]

It just means that the intelligence gap was smaller, potentially much, much smaller, when humans first started developing a serious edge relative to apes. It's not evidence for accumulation per se, but it's evidence against us just being so much smarter from the get go, and renormalizing has it function very much like evidence for accumulation.

Comment author: ciphergoth 16 September 2014 10:05:46AM 4 points [-]

I think what controls the rate of change is the intelligence of the top 5%, not the average intelligence.

Comment author: gallabytes 16 September 2014 09:11:56PM 4 points [-]

Sure, I still don't think that if you elevated the intelligence of a group of chimps to the top 5% of humanity without adding some better form of communication and idea accumulation it wouldn't matter.

If Newton were born in ancient Egypt, he might have made some serious progress, but he almost certainly wouldn't have discovered calculus and classical mechanics. Being able to stand on the shoulders of giants is really important.

Comment author: kgalias 16 September 2014 09:44:14AM 2 points [-]

It is possible, then, that exposure to complex visual media has produced genuine increases in a significant form of intelligence. This hypothetical form of intelligence might be called "visual analysis." Tests such as Raven's may show the largest Flynn gains because they measure visual analysis rather directly; tests of learned content may show the smallest gains because they do not measure visual analysis at all.

Do you think this is a sensible view?

Comment author: gallabytes 16 September 2014 09:07:54PM 1 point [-]

Eh, not especially. IIRC, scores have also had to be renormalized on Stanford-Binet and Weschler tests over the years. That said, I'd bet it has some effect, but I'd be much more willing to bet on less malnutrition, less beating / early head injury, and better public health allowing better development during childhood and adolescence.

That said, I'm very interested in any data that points to other causes behind the Flynn Effect, so if you have any to post don't hesitate.

Comment author: lukeprog 16 September 2014 01:16:04AM *  14 points [-]

I really liked Bostrom's unfinished fable of the sparrows. And endnote #1 from the Preface is cute.

Comment author: gallabytes 16 September 2014 03:22:48AM *  16 points [-]

I would say one of the key strong points about the fable of the sparrows is that it provides a very clean intro to the idea of AI risk. Even someone who's never read a word on the subject, when given the title of the book and the story, gets a good idea of where the book is going to go. It doesn't communicate all the important insights, but it points in the right direction.

EDIT: So I actually went to the trouble of testing this by having a bunch of acquaintances read the fable, and, even given the title of the book, most of them didn't come anywhere near getting the intended message. They were much more likely to interpret it as about the "futility of subjugating nature to humanity's whims". This is worrying for our ability to make the case to laypeople.

Comment author: billdesmedt 16 September 2014 01:38:27AM 3 points [-]

one way to apply such knowledge might be in differentiating between approaches that are indefinitely extendable and/or expandable and those that, despite impressive beginnings, tend to max out beyond a certain point. (Think of Joe Weizenbaum's ELIZA as an example of the second.)

Comment author: gallabytes 16 September 2014 03:16:46AM 1 point [-]

Do you have any examples of approaches that are indefinitely extendable?

Comment author: AshokGoel 16 September 2014 01:31:40AM 5 points [-]

Thanks for the nice summary and the questions. I think it is worth noting that AI is good only at some board games (fully observable, deterministic games) and not at others (partially observable, non-deterministic games such as, say, Civilization).

Comment author: gallabytes 16 September 2014 02:02:33AM 4 points [-]

Interestingly enough, a team at MIT managed to make an AI that learned how to play from the manual and proceeded to win 80% of it's games against the AI, though I don't know which difficulty it was set to, or how the freeciv AI compares to the one in normal Civilization.

Comment author: KatjaGrace 16 September 2014 01:04:42AM 3 points [-]

How large a leap in cognitive ability do you think occurred between our last common ancestor with the great apes, and us? (p1) Was it mostly a change in personal intelligence, or could human success be explained by our greater ability to accumulate knowledge from others in society? How can we tell how much smarter, in the relevant sense, a chimp is than a human? This chapter claims Koko the Gorilla has a tested IQ of about 80 (see table 2).

What can we infer from answers to these questions?

Comment author: gallabytes 16 September 2014 01:28:04AM 4 points [-]

I would bet heavily on the accumulation. National average IQ has been going up by about 3 points per decade for quite a few decades, so there have definitely been times when Koko's score might have been above average. Now, I'm more inclined to say that this doesn't mean great things for the IQ test overall, but I put enough trust in it to say that it's not differences in intelligence that prevented the gorillas from reaching the prominence of humans. It might have slowed them down, but given this data it shouldn't have kept them pre-Stone-Age.

Given that the most unique aspect of humans relative to other species seems to be the use of language to pass down knowledge, I don't know what else it really could be. What other major things do we have going for us that other animals don't?

Comment author: gallabytes 09 July 2014 03:25:35PM *  1 point [-]

"Despite the theoretical availability to find out virtually anything from the Internet, we seem pretty far from any plausible approximation of this dream"

I'm not as convinced this is as easy as you seem to think it is. One of the fundamental problems of all attempts to do natural language programming and/or queries is that natural languages have nondeterministic parsing. There's lots of ambiguities floating about in there, and lots of social modeling is necessary to correctly parse most sentences.

To take your "first ruler of Russia" example, to infer the correct query, you'd need to know:

  • That they mean Russia the landmass not Russia the nation-state
  • What they mean by "ruler of Russia" (for example, does Kievan Rus count as Russia?)

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