Comment author: gothgirl420666 11 October 2014 09:19:25PM *  1 point [-]

Some questions I'd personally put in if I was writing this survey (you don't need to put these in if you don't want to, just suggestions):

  • To what extent have your beliefs about the world and your reasoning processes changed since you became a member of this community?
  • To what extent do you think that MIRI's mission is a worthy one (i.e. do you think that AI is a major existential risk, do you think it's important to ensure the development of friendly AI, do you think that MIRI is capable of advancing that goal, etc.)
  • To what extend do you identify with the term "nerd"?
  • How do you perceive your physical attractiveness, on a scale of 1 to 10?

How would you rate your general success in life in the following areas, before and after you became a member of this community?

  • Progress on goals
  • Wealth
  • Social life
  • Romance
  • Happiness
  • Overall
Comment author: Risto_Saarelma 04 June 2014 03:26:41AM 0 points [-]

Just turning off your network interface for the duration of a work session (maybe do timed Pomodoro bursts) will guard against the mindless reflex of tabbing over to the browser. Then you get the opportunity to actually make a mindful decision about whether to go out of work phase and off browsing or not. If you get legit stuff to search that isn't completely blocking the offline work, write it down on a piece of scratch paper to look up later.

Tricks like this tend to stop working though. You'll probably just go into mindlessly bringing up the network interface instead in the long term, but even months or weeks of having a working technique are better than not having one.

Maybe you could team up with an Ita who works with the Reticulum and become an Avout who is forbidden from it.

Comment author: gothgirl420666 04 June 2014 06:06:21AM 1 point [-]

Yeah, I tried this for a while, along with putting Chrome in increasingly obscure places on my hard drive. After these failed, I came upon the flash drive idea, which has the feature that it involves physical activity and therefore can't be done mindlessly. If you need to, you can throw it across the room.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 03 June 2014 05:12:44PM 18 points [-]

I'm starting to maybe figure out why I've had such difficulties with both relaxing and working in the recent years.

It feels that, large parts of the time, my mind is constantly looking for an escape, though I'm not entirely sure what exactly it is trying to escape from. But it wants to get away from the current situation, whatever the current situation happens to be. To become so engrossed in something that it forgets about everything else.

Unfortunately, this often leads to the opposite result. My mind wants that engrossment right now, and if it can't get it, it will flinch away from whatever I'm doing and into whatever provides an immediate reward. Facebook, forums, IRC, whatever gives that quick dopamine burst. That means that I have difficulty getting into books, TV shows, computer games: if they don't grab me right away, I'll start growing restless and be unable to focus on them. Even more so with studies or work, which usually require an even longer "warm-up" period before one gets into flow.

Worse, I'm often sufficiently aware of that discomfort that my awareness of it prevents the engrossment. I go loopy: I get uncomfortable about the fact that I'm uncomfortable, and then if I have to work or study, my focus is on "how do I get rid of this feeling" rather than on "what should I do next in this project". And then my mind keeps flinching away from the project, to anything that would provide a distraction, on to Facebook, to IRC, to whatever. And I start feeling worse and worse.

Some time back, I started experimenting with teaching myself not to have any goals. That is, instead of having a bunch of stuff I try to accomplish in some given time period, simply be okay with doing absolutely nothing for all day (or all week, or all year...), until a natural motivation to do something develops. This seems to help. So does mindfulness, as well as ensuring that my basic needs have been met: enough sleep and food and having some nice real-life social interaction every few days.

Anybody else recognize this?

Comment author: gothgirl420666 04 June 2014 01:53:39AM *  9 points [-]

This is kind of funny because I came to this open thread to ask something very similar.

I have noticed that my mind has a "default mode" which is to aimlessly browse the internet. If I am engaged in some other activity, no matter how much I am enjoying it, a part of my brain will have the strong desire to go into default mode. Once I am in default mode, it takes active exertion to break away do anything else, no matter how bored or miserable I become. As you can imagine, this is a massive source of wasted time, and I have always wished that I could stop this tendency. This has been the case more or less ever since I got my first laptop when I was thirteen.

I have recently been experimenting with taking "days off" of the internet. These days are awesome. The day just fills up with free time, and I feel much calmer and content. I wish I could be free of the internet and do this indefinitely.

But there are obvious problems, a few of which are:

  • Most of the stuff that I wish I was doing instead of aimlessly surfing the internet involves the computer and oftentimes the internet. A few of the things that would be "good uses of my time" are reading, making digital art, producing electronic music, or coding. Three out of four of those things rely on the computer, and of those three, they oftentimes in some capacity rely on the internet.

  • I am inevitably going to be required to use the internet for school and work. Most likely in my graphic design and computer science classes next year I will have to be able to use the internet on my laptop during class.

  • If I have an important question that I could find the answer to on Google, I'm going to want to find that answer.

It's hard to find an eloquent solution to this problem. If I come up with a plan for avoiding internet use that is too loose, it will end up getting more and more flexible until it falls apart completely. If the plan is too strict, then I inevitably will not be able to follow it and will abandon it. If the plan is too intricate and complicated, then I will not be able to make myself follow it either.

The best idea I have come up with so far is to delete all the browsers from my laptop and put a copy of Chrome on a flash drive. I would never copy this instance of Chrome onto a hard drive, instead I would just run it from the flash drive every time I wanted to use it. This way, every time I wanted to use the internet, I would have to go find the flash drive. I could also give the flash drive to someone else for a while if I felt like a moment of weakness was coming on. I've been using this for exactly one day and it seems to be working pretty well so far.

The other thing I've been doing for a few days is writing a "plan" of the next day before I go to bed, then sticking to the plan. If something happens to interrupt my plan, then I will draft a new plan as soon as possible. For example, my friend called me up today inviting me over. I wasn't about to say "No, I can't hang out, I have planned out my day and it didn't include you". So when I got back, I wrote a new one. Most of these plans involve limiting internet use to some degree, so this also seems promising. I might also do something where I keep track of how many days in a row I followed the plan and try not to break the chain.

Comment author: Strilanc 30 May 2014 07:11:07AM *  5 points [-]

I would expect an honest person to deny incorrect guesses, and to give very vague words of encouragement when the other person said something that was close.

No, that's how an honest person fools themselves. The encouragement gets stronger as you get closer, so finding the solution goes from a brute force search to a simple hill climbing exercise. The answers should all be "No" without any variation. No hints, no "I think you have some of the right ideas", no "that's not even close!", just "No" "No" "No" "No" "No".

Also it's important to notice how many guesses you're making. For example, when you said "I'm imagining palm trees by a lake at sunset." in the conversation you posted, that was a guess. Actually, more like three guesses...

Comment author: gothgirl420666 30 May 2014 07:31:42AM *  0 points [-]

No, that's how an honest person fools themselves. The encouragement gets stronger as you get closer, so finding the solution goes from a brute force search to a simple hill climbing exercise. The answers should all be "No" without any variation. No hints, no "I think you have some of the right ideas", no "that's not even close!", just "No" "No" "No" "No" "No".

I see what you're saying, but you have to understand the context. This was not a formal scientific experiment, this was part of a puzzle game that was meant to be fun. In every other level of Notpron, except some of the final ones, it was suggested that people ask those farther ahead of them for hints and pushes in the right direction if they got hopelessly stuck. It would have been weirdly incongruous and callous for DavidM to have done as you suggest and not offer even words of encouragement to those who he knew were close.

One more thing to consider: one of the reasons I stopped was because I had already begun to feel embarrassed by how long the conversation was going. One would expect that if the method of figuring it out was brute force -> hill climbing, DavidM would say things to imply that it takes time and that more guesses are better. In fact, he maintains that most people solve it their first time, he says "don't brute force, or you'll be banned from this level", and at some points he explicitly told me to stop guessing and go clear my mind.

Also it's important to notice how many guesses you're making. For example, when you said "I'm imagining palm trees by a lake at sunset." in the conversation you posted, that was a guess. Actually, more like three guesses...

I don't understand what you're implying here.

By the way, I hope it doesn't sound like I'm some sort of shill for parapsychologists by continuing to defend what I'm saying. The fact is that I remain unconvinced. While I can see many possible explanations, I can't find any that are actually believable. I feel like when I have investigated most paranormal or strange phenomena, I always end up coming across that one explanation that makes me say "Okay, that's what happened, I can go home now." This whole scenario, on the other hand, just seems like one big confusing mystery.

Comment author: gwern 30 May 2014 03:20:12AM *  14 points [-]

Maybe DavidM is in fact "leading" people to the answer through a series of multiple guesses.

Maybe? Maybe you need to reread that email conversation you posted.

One of the very first posts on the thread was her talking about her dream and saying "I think this has something to do with Notpron, but I don't know what". DavidM had to immediately remove the post so as not to give away the answer.

Every answer after that is contaminated.

However, on the other hand, DavidM really strongly believes in the conspiracy theory new age stuff and vigorously promotes it, so it seems unlikely that he would sabotage his own ideology like that.

It's not DavidM you should be worried about. Actually, I should rephrase that: given the long history of fraud in this area, it is DavidM you should be worried about, believing in it has nothing at all to do with whether you are willing to lie about it and is an excellent reason to lie about getting positive results (how many people lie to produce evidence against cherished beliefs? and is there any way you could ever produce a smoking gun which could backfire like you claim he might be worried about?), and it's also everyone else lying about it that you need to worry about (again, contamination).

(By the way, did you know 'boat' is a rather common object? eg 149m hits in Google, comparable with 'Obama' at 141m hits. In Ngram, 'boat' even beats' apple' but not 'table', funnily enough.)

So, given the above and this recent article from Slate Star Codex, I feel like I am forced to raise my credence level for remote viewing being real to somewhere between 50 and 60 percent.

The SSC article is most intriguing, but David's evidence is worthless.

Comment author: gothgirl420666 30 May 2014 04:54:32AM 0 points [-]

Maybe? Maybe you need to reread that email conversation you posted.

See my response to ShardPhoenix. It would be nice if you could elaborate on this. Obviously if I saw that my conversation with him was leading, I would not have posted this in the first place.

Every answer after that is contaminated.

Fair point.

It's not DavidM you should be worried about. Actually, I should rephrase that: given the long history of fraud in this area, it is DavidM you should be worried about, believing in it has nothing at all to do with whether you are willing to lie about it and is an excellent reason to lie about getting positive results (how many people lie to produce evidence against cherished beliefs? and is there any way you could ever produce a smoking gun which could backfire like you claim he might be worried about?), and it's also everyone else lying about it that you need to worry about (again, contamination).

It seems unlikely to me that he is explicitly lying in some way. I fully expect him to run a biased experiment, but not a rigged one. Most of the fraudsters have something to gain from their lies - either money, or fame. DavidM doesn't make any money off of this (he worked on a movie about "the 5 natural laws of health", but that is a completely different piece of woo than remote viewing and he also to my knowledge has never advertised the movie in association with Nu), and he is addressing an already captive audience. Secondly, if he truly believes remote viewing to be real, why would he run a faked experiment in support of it? Thirdly, for what it's worth, my impression from playing Notpron for a few years is that he basically seems like an honest person.

If you think that he is lying, then in what way? How did he convince 31 minus one people to go along with this lie? Most of the people who solved Nu were active members of the community before DavidM ever became a conspiracy nut.

(By the way, did you know 'boat' is a rather common object? eg 149m hits in Google, comparable with 'Obama' at 141m hits. In Ngram, 'boat' even beats' apple' but not 'table', funnily enough.)

"Boat" is definitely a common object. I would say that it is one of the 100 most common objects to come to someone's mind. So there should be a 1/100 chance that someone would guess it right on their first try.

Comment author: ShardPhoenix 30 May 2014 03:21:13AM *  5 points [-]

Reading your conversation he's definitely leading you, probably not intentionally (and it didn't work this time). This seem similar to Ouija board, cold-reading, etc, where people are at least semi-consciously leading/being led.

Also if 50% of people really get it on the first try without being led it should be easy to reproduce this in a controlled experiment since the effect is far stronger than that allegedly found by psychic phenomenon researchers.

Comment author: gothgirl420666 30 May 2014 04:53:18AM *  1 point [-]

It would be nice if you could elaborate on this. To me it seems like he exclusively either flat out told me "no" or gave me completely useless confirmation. When I guessed the palm trees by the lake, he said it wasn't bad but he didn't want to give me any more information. This seems like the only potentially useful hint, I'm imagining he said it wasn't bad because I mentioned a body of water. Then I guessed the bee. I have no idea why he said it seemed on track, the only thing I said that seems relevant was "sharp". But he told me that it wouldn't help me and I couldn't guess based on this confirmation. Then I guessed a helicopter, and he said it might be on target, but to ignore it. Again, I have no idea how this would lead me to the shark.

So we have two confirmations, two of which he explicitly told me not to think about and that they wouldn't lead me in the right direction.

A question: how would you expect an honest person to act in this situation vs. a charlatan?

I would expect an honest person to deny incorrect guesses, and to give very vague words of encouragement when the other person said something that was close. This is in fact how DavidM behaved, except for some reason he was overly trigger-happy with the encouragement.

I would expect a charlatan to be much more leading. For example, I would expect that after my initial guess of the lake, he would have told me or at least hinted towards the fact that water had something to do with it.

EDIT: Also, I'm surprised he outright rejected the elephant guess, given that it and the shark are both big gray animals.

Also if 50% of people really get it on the first try without being led it should be easy to reproduce this in a controlled experiment since the effect is far stronger than that allegedly found by psychic phenomenon researchers.

Good point. (Then again, ChristianKI also makes a good point.)

Does this seem to you like evidence for the existence of psychic abilities in humans?

-5 gothgirl420666 30 May 2014 02:44AM

I was recently reminded of something I have encountered that seems to me to be good evidence for paranormal phenomena. Can anyone help me figure out what might be going on? 

When I was a little younger, I used to play the online riddle game Notpron. In this game, the player (essentially) has to analyze a webpage for clues towards the URL to the next webpage, and then repeat for 140 stages. The creator of this game, DavidM, at some point became a huge new age conspiracy theory loony type. Three years after the original ending of the riddle went online, he revised it to include an additional final level: Level Nu. This level is very different than the ones preceding it. I can't link to the page for obvious reasons, but I will transcribe it here:

835 492 147 264

Remote view the photography this number represents!

Email me all your results to david@david-m.org. I'll get you some feedback. Get me all elements or impressions that seem really strong for you. Or send me your sketches if you like.

Don't bruteforce, or you'll be banned from this one. You have as many attempts as you like, take your time.

Yes, I mean it. No tricks here, just pure remote viewing. The number represents a picture, I want to know what's on there.

So learn some remote viewing technique you like best and go ahead. The internet has lots of information. Have fun!

Please do this ALL by yourself, not even with your very very close friends. Because its boring and stupid, and because you can put bullshit into each others head, which is hard to get rid of again, because the mind needs to be shut down for this to work properly. So do it alone, just talk to me about it, please.

(Yes, this really works, one friend got the content of the picture on first try...and yes, he only got the number from me.)

I personally tried to solve it myself. I was less of a rationalist back then, and so I was fairly open-minded about the existence of most paranormal phenomena. The picture I was looking for was the shark

Here is a shortened, paraphrased transcript of our email conversation:

Me: I'm imagining palm trees by a lake at sunset.
David: It's not bad, but I don't want to give you any more information because it will interfere with your efforts.
Me: I'm picturing an elephant walking into a barn.
David: Nope. 
Me: How many people have attempted this? And how many people have solved it with the current picture?
David: About half of the people who attempted solved it. Most solved it on their first try. I don't know exactly how many people solved this picture, but it has been a few. 
Me: Is it a space shuttle?
David: No. 
Me: (Expressions of frustration, with a few guesses thrown in.)
David: (Encouragement and advice, no comment on the guesses. Says "I can very well see that you receive the right input, but your mind is screwing it up into something else.")
Me: It's a bee?
David: No. Are you getting more subtle input, instead of a specific idea?
Me: Yeah, for that one, I saw something sharp, bright yellow colors, symmetry, a noisy drone, and two colors in pattern.
David: So THIS is interesting. Everything else you said wasn't!
Me: Are you saying that I was close? 
David: These elements sound like they are on target. They are too vague yet to tell if they are for real. 
Me: Thanks. The only other thing I could think about that relates to those elements is a pencil. I'll try again tonight. 
David: Stop fiddling around with your mind about this. It's bound to fail. There's no way to guess the target just from what you said. 
Me: I just tried it again. Is it a helicopter?
David: Are you sure you aren't viewing the old solution? There was a helicopter involved. 
Me: The boat? I'm not trying too. I guess I'll just keep trying... I even have the numbers memorized at this point.
David. The boat was shot from a helicopter. You shouldn't memorize the numbers. They don't matter. Memorizing them might just create unwanted associations.
Me: Okay. I say helicopter because I had an experience where I saw a bunch of spinning fan blades. I was going to guess a fan, but I could sense that there was more. Then I went "through" the fan blades and for a second I saw the whole helicopter. 
David: It sounds like it could be on target. But ignore it, it's not the object of interest.

At that point, I lost interest and gave up. Looking back, I can honestly say that I saw nothing remotely (haha) similar to the picture of the shark. I was not even a tiny bit close. I'm not sure why David said that I was on track, I can't see any association between the shark and what I was guessing. 

So that's everything I know. 

Points in favor of it being real:
  • "Most people" apparently guessed it on their first try.
  • According to David, about half the people who tried it have solved it. 
  • The dream thing - absolutely insane, hard to imagine that it's a coincidence. 
  • David did not consider the guy who guessed the shark as "something approaching me, it is a situation that I need to react to" to have solved the level. This shows that he requires fairly high standards of accuracy.
  • David implies that in order to have guessed the boat, you need to say the word "boat", also implying high standards. 
  • David did not really give me very much help or "lead" me anywhere when I tried to solve it. 
Points in favor of it being fake:
  • One person who solved it says that he did not solve it using remote viewing. 
  • It didn't work for me at all. 
  • David might very well be exaggerating both the percentage of people who successfully solved it and the percentage of people who guessed it on their first try. 
  • David might be (and in fact probably is) only reporting the "best" answers in his forum posts. For the fruit and the shark, he seems to be posting about half of the people who solved it in that time period. For the boat, he doesn't really give specifics, and instead says "Most people just said it was a boat on their first guess."
Here are my two theories regarding this.
  • Maybe DavidM is in fact "leading" people to the answer through a series of multiple guesses. For this to be true, however, a few things would have to be the case. First of all, his assertion that most people guessed it on their first try would have to be greatly exaggerated. Let's imagine that David is outright lying about most people guessing it on their first try and that half the people who attempted the riddle solved it. However, at least six people (I don't feel like going back through all 29 pages and counting) posted on the forum that they solved it on their first try. Let's imagine that all 300 people who reached the level attempted it. This is still a 1/50 "first guess" rate, and that's out of all the photographs in the world. However, maybe by some conjunction of 1) exaggerating those two numbers, 2) his dialogue with me being atypical, 3) the answers he posted on the forum being atypical, 4) his refusal to accept "something approaching me" being atypical and 5) the dream being a total coincidence, it may be true that he actually is doing a form of "leading" and is covering it up well. This feels like a really unsatisfactory answer. It relies on a lot of conjunctions and it seems clear that the only way to arrive at it is by a thorough search for some sort of answer that fits nicely in with our pre-existing worldview. That being said, I suspect it might be the most likely answer. 
  • Perhaps the level is an elaborate joke. In reality there is some other more conventional means of arriving at a solution, and people who solve it are told to play along. I can sort of see this being the case, given that 1) there are some other levels of Notpron that have "prankster-ish" elements and 2) I have actually myself been a part of a very similar joke on an even bigger scale, so I know that it can happen. However, on the other hand, DavidM really strongly believes in the conspiracy theory new age stuff and vigorously promotes it, so it seems unlikely that he would sabotage his own ideology like that. Also, while there are other prankster-ish levels of Notpron, nothing comes close to being as clever or elaborate as this scenario would be. 
So, given the above and this recent article from Slate Star Codex, I feel like I am forced to raise my credence level for remote viewing being real to somewhere between 50 and 60 percent. 

Does this seem in error to you? 
 
In response to comment by [deleted] on A Dialogue On Doublethink
Comment author: Eugine_Nier 08 May 2014 11:11:00PM 3 points [-]

To be fare, I suspect a large number of the anti-Gates memes are by other geeks fighting the open/closed source holy war.

Comment author: gothgirl420666 09 May 2014 09:29:36PM 3 points [-]

Geeks have most likely absorbed the "geeks are lesser, should be laughed at" meme to a certain extent as well.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 09 April 2014 08:06:46AM 10 points [-]

Inspired by economical lolcats, I guess we should have some rationality lolcats. Here are a few quick ideas:

Two big cats next to each other, a third smaller cat in front of them or hiding somewhere aside. "Consider the third alternative"

One cat standing on hind legs, other cat crouching. "If P(H|E) > P(H) ... then P(H|~E) < P(H)"

Cat examining a computer mouse. "Iz mouse 'by definishun' ... still can't eat"

Cat ripping apart paper boxes. "Stop compartmentalizing"

Cat ripping apart a map. "The map is not the territory"

Cat riding a vacuum cleaner ... something about Friendly AI.

Kittens riding a dog. "Burdensome details"

Cat looking suspiciously at a whirlpool in a bathtub. "Resist the affective spiral"

Or simply a picture of some smart cat (cat with glasses?) and some applause-light texts, like "All your Bayes are belong to us"

I am not sure what is the proper procedure for creating these; specifically whether there is some good source of legally available cat images. What is the correct font to use, and whether there are some tools for conveniently adding texts to pictures. Anyone has experience with this?

Comment author: gothgirl420666 11 April 2014 01:13:24PM 0 points [-]

This meme is at least a decade old. If we're going to do rationality memes, we should do something more relevant...

Comment author: Brillyant 13 March 2014 02:39:21PM 37 points [-]

Irrationality Game: Less Wrong is simply my Tyler Durden—a disassociated digital personality concocted by my unconcious mind to be everything I need it to be to cope with Camusian absurdist reality. 95%.

Comment author: gothgirl420666 13 March 2014 10:21:44PM *  1 point [-]

Wow. I think this one might win.

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