In response to Assuming Nails
Comment author: gregconen 11 July 2010 04:10:43AM 0 points [-]

Not that it isn't interesting, but it seems confused, and somewhat trivial.

Trivial, because it basically says: Keep in mind that the map is not the territory applies even if the map is a scientific model. A good thing to keep in mind, nevertheless.

But in the details, you seem to misunderstand some of the problems "mathematics appears to have perfect conformity with reality" is, as Vladmir Nesov points out, exactly backwards. Mathematics qua mathematics has no relation to reality, and (properly) makes no claim as to reflections of reality. Your linked article, on the surface, is perfectly in line with classical incentive economics: remembering to take meds is costly, so some people don't do it. Give an incentive, and more people will do it. Not that there aren't important flaws in the perfect rationality assumption, and some of them show up beneath the surface of that behavior. But show it to computer programmed to do classical economics, and it will happily calculate marginal costs of remembering to take drugs, etc.

Further, you seem to miss some of the important roots of the problem. Economics is not the only discipline where good models are lacking (turbulent flow comes to mind). But it's easy to create a turbulent flow in a laboratory. So, is it the difficulty of experiments that cause problems, or the complexity of the phenomenon?

Or is it lack of self-awareness or honesty? Do economists imagine they understand the economy better than aeronautical engineers imagine they understand flow? And if so, why?

In response to Abnormal Cryonics
Comment author: FraserOrr 27 May 2010 02:27:42PM 3 points [-]

Question for the advocates of cryonics: I have heard talk in the news and various places that organ donor organizations are talking about giving priority to people who have signed up to donate their organs. That is to say, if you sign up to be an organ donor, you are more likely to receive a donated organ from someone else should you need one. There is some logic in that in the absence of a market in organs; free riders have their priority reduced.

I have no idea if such an idea is politically feasible (and, let me be clear, I don't advocate it), however, were it to become law in your country, would that tilt the cost benefit analysis away from cryonics sufficiently that you would cancel your contract? (There is a new cost imposed by cryonics: namely that the procedure prevents you from being an organ donor, and consequently, reduces your chance of a life saving organ transplant.)

Comment author: gregconen 28 May 2010 02:38:57AM 1 point [-]

In most cases, signing up for cryonics and signing up as an organ donor are not mutually exclusive. The manner of death most suited to organ donation (rapid brain death with (parts of) the body still in good condition, generally caused by head trauma) is not well suited to cryonic preservation. You'd probably need a directive in case the two do conflict, but such a conflict is unlikely.

Alternatively, neuropreservation can, at least is theory, occur with organ donation.

Comment author: timtyler 05 May 2010 06:45:59AM *  0 points [-]

It is standard practice to regard some meme-gene conflicts as cases of pathogenic infections. See, for example the books "Virus of the Mind" and "Thought Contagion".

Similarly with malfunctions: a suicidal animal has gone wrong - from perspective of the standard functional perspective of biologists - just as much as a laptop goes wrong if you try and use it underwater. Biologists from Mars would have the same concepts in these areas.

The point of the reproductive analysis is that it explains the status seeking and attention seeking - whilst also explaining the fees paid for IVF treatments and why ladies like to keep cute puppies. It is a deeper, better theory - with firm foundations in biology.

Comment author: gregconen 05 May 2010 10:01:06PM 1 point [-]

The point of the reproductive analysis is that it explains the status seeking and attention seeking - whilst also explaining the fees paid for IVF treatments and why ladies like to keep cute puppies. It is a deeper, better theory - with firm foundations in biology.

Evolutionary analysis can if used properly. But evolutionary analysis is properly identifying adaptations, not:

people's desires should be nailed down as hard as possible to those things that lead to raising good quality babies.

Comment author: gregconen 05 May 2010 02:38:01AM 2 points [-]

As ever, both stories are studies in irrelevancy and emotional appeal.

Which probably reflects a good bit of what's wrong with the criminal justice system.

Though unscientific scientific testimony is also a serious problem, apparently also seen in this case.

Comment author: timtyler 04 May 2010 10:03:22PM *  -2 points [-]

Some people prefer other things. Mostly, that is ultimately due to memetic infections of their brains - which divert resources to reproducing memes - rather than genes.

Yes: some people act to serve parasitic genes rather than their own genes. Yes: some people malfunction, and go wrong. Yet the basic underlying theory has much truth in it - truth an analysis on the level of status-seeking misses out. Of course the theory works much better if you include memes - as well as DNA-genes.

An analysis of whether the modern low birth rate strategy in some developed countries is very much worse than the high birth rate strategies elsewhere may have to wait for a while yet. High birth rate strategies tend to be in countries stricken by war, famine and debt. Maybe their genes will prevail overall - but also maybe they won't.

Comment author: gregconen 04 May 2010 10:56:29PM 1 point [-]

Calling it an "infection" or a "malfunction" implicitly judges the behavior. That's your own bias talking.

The fact that someone desires something because of a meme instead of a gene (to oversimplify things; both are always in play) does not make the desire any less real or any less worthy.

A solely status-based analysis misses things, just as a solely reproductive analysis misses things. The point is that you can't nail desires down to simply "making good babies" or "being high status" or "having lots of sex"; any or all of these may be true desires in a given person.

Comment author: timtyler 04 May 2010 07:36:56PM *  0 points [-]

Reality check: evolutionary theory suggests people's desires should be nailed down as hard as possible to those things that lead to raising good quality babies. Almost 7 billion humans shows how well this theory works.

So: men can be expected to desire status to the extent that it increases their access to young, fertile mates - while women can be expected to desire attention to the extent that it gives them access to a good selection of prospective partners and their genes.

The maternal instict is strong - and it has little to do with attention - and a lot to do with raising your very own cute, lovable baby.

Check with the fees paid to fertility clincs for evidence that many people want babies pretty directly - just as a naive interpretation of evolutionary theory suggests that they might.

People might not always say they want babies. However, the conscious mind is the human PR department, not an honest hotline to their motivation system. By their actions shall ye know them.

Comment author: gregconen 04 May 2010 08:31:09PM *  1 point [-]

Almost 7 billion humans shows how well this theory works.

And yet subreplacement fertility in a number of rich countries (the very place where people have copious resources) points to a serious flaw. It's apparent that many people aren't having babies.

People are adaptation executors, not fitness maximizers.

For a highly simplified example, people like sex. In the ancestral environment sex would lead to babies. But the development of condoms, hormonal birth control, etc, has short-circuited this connection. The tasks of caring for a baby (which are evolutionarily programmed) interfere with sex. Thus, you have people forgoing babies in order to have more sex.

Of course, in the real world, people care about status, food, etc, as well as sex. All those things may have been linked to reproduction in the environment where we evolved, but the connection is far weaker with modern technology. Thus, people prefer other things to reproduction.

In response to comment by ata on Open Thread: May 2010
Comment author: humpolec 03 May 2010 12:35:30PM 0 points [-]

Unless it's unFriendly AI that revives you and tortures you forever.

Comment author: gregconen 03 May 2010 02:10:05PM 6 points [-]

Strongly unFriendly AI (the kind that tortures you eternally, rather than kills you and uses your matter to make paperclips) would be about as difficult to create as Friendly AI. And since few people would try to create one, I don't think it's a likely future.

Comment author: thomblake 22 April 2010 02:58:46PM 3 points [-]

Well as far as I can tell, they're all some of the most brilliant people I've met, and not socially stunted or anything. And seeing the lack of scars from schooling on these folks really makes them obvious on everyone else.

Comment author: gregconen 22 April 2010 03:09:12PM 4 points [-]

Keep in mind selection bias. The pool of people who would unschool their children is systematically different from the general population. Aspects of child-rearing unrelated to schooling (at least conventional schooling) and/or genetics probably played a role in determining the adult personality of their children.

Comment author: gregconen 22 April 2010 02:43:58PM 4 points [-]

This solves nothing. If we knew the failure mode exactly, we could forbid it explicitly, rather than resort to some automatic self-destruct system. We, as humans, do not know exactly what the AI will do to become Unfriendly; that's a key point to understand. Since we don't know the failure mode, we can't design a superstition to stop it, anymore than we can outright prohibit it.

This is, in fact, worse than explicit rules. It requires the AI to actively want to do something undesirable, instead of it occurring as a side effect.

Comment author: Jowibou 19 April 2010 07:56:55AM *  2 points [-]

Whether we like it or not, that "intimidation" may be the single most important factor in keeping the level of discourse in the comments unusually high. Status games can be beneficial.

Comment author: gregconen 19 April 2010 03:50:39PM 1 point [-]

Indeed. I'm not saying the karma system is a bad thing.

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