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11gwern's Shortform
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5y
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62
If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies, a semi-outsider review
gwern1d40

Hard to say. Oyster larvae are highly mobile and move their bodies around extensively both to eat and to find places to eventually anchor to, but I don't know how I would compare that to spores or seeds, say, or to lifetime movement; and oysters "move their bodies around" and are not purely static - they would die if they couldn't open and close their shells or pump water. (And all the muscle they use to do that is why we eat them.)

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In remembrance of Sonnet '3.6'
gwern1d90

Anthropic doesn't delete weights of released models

How do you know that? Because OpenAI has done that.

Reply1
Remarks on Bayesian studies from 1963
gwern2d130

Fulltext link: https://gwern.net/doc/statistics/bayes/1963-mosteller.pdf since it doesn't turn up in GS. (One of many papers I host with clean metadata and easily scraped and listed in the sitemap.xml for a long time which still doesn't turn up for unknown reasons.)

Reply2
japancolorado's Shortform
gwern2d*82

Isn't that just mode-collapse?

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If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies, a semi-outsider review
gwern3d52

Plants have many ways of moving their bodies like roots and phototropism, in addition to an infinite variety of dispersal & reproductive mechanisms which arguably are how plants 'move around'. (Consider computer programs: they 'move' almost solely by copying themselves and deleting the original. It is rare to move a program by physically carrying around RAM sticks or hard drives.) Fungi likewise often have flagellum or grow in addition to all their sporulation and their famous networks.

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The Dark Arts of Tokenization or: How I learned to start worrying and love LLMs' undecoded outputs
gwern4d20

There's no reason whatsoever to think that they are independent of each other. The very fact that you can classify them systematically as 'positive' or 'negative' valence indicates they are not and you don't know what 'raw chance' here yields. It might be quite probable.

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The Dark Arts of Tokenization or: How I learned to start worrying and love LLMs' undecoded outputs
gwern4d20

I don't know what the samples have to do with it. I mean simply that the parameters of the model are initialized randomly and from the start all tokens will cause slightly different model behaviors, even if the tokens are never seen in the training data, and this will remain true no matter how long it's trained.

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The Dark Arts of Tokenization or: How I learned to start worrying and love LLMs' undecoded outputs
gwern5d20

Or it could just be randomness from initialization which hasn't been washed away by any training. "Subliminal" encoding immediately comes to mind.

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Can We Simulate Meiosis to Create Digital Gametes — and Are the Results Your Biological Offspring?
gwern5d40

but I don't think it would extend lifespan indefinitely.

I think the big question about head transplants for me is how it interacts with the process of aging, given that body systems are heavily intercorrelated and damage in one system will damage other systems (and vice versa with healing).

Intuitively, I would expect it to work statistically in one of two ways. In the pessimistic case, the brain keeps aging on the normal Gompertz schedule, and even a perfect head transplant can never buy you more than a decade or two before any of your head-located diseases kill you; it corresponds to shifting the aging mortality spike down somewhat, but it is still going to spike soon. (In this scenario, the trauma and cost of a head transplant might rule it out for a lot of elderly people: you might die on the operating table or afterwards, and it doesn't buy you much time.) In the optimistic case, the near-reset of the body to the pink of youth will eliminate all of the aging acceleration from the rest of the aging body and heal the brain and by changing the exponent, potentially buy you drastic increases in lifespan by flattening the spike, and 50 or 100 years might suddenly be statistically plausible. At which point you might as well consider it an indefinite lifespan extension because who knows where medical technology will be in 100+ years?

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Accelerando as a "Slow, Reasonably Nice Takeoff" Story
gwern18d30

In Accelerando, it's abundance of physical compute which carries transhuman society as a whole beyond human comprehension. In A Fire Upon the Deep, it's some kind of algorithm which makes the difference - when that algorithm runs, unstoppable superintelligence is created.

I think that's not quite right? The Blight can only run when the Straumli researchers break open the sealed archive because it's located in the almost-highest-physical-computation-possible zone, the Low Transcend. The Blight can reach into the lower zones but only after running in the Low Transcend ie. there is an abundance of physical compute which carries the Blight beyond human society-level comprehension.

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20"Tilakkhana", Gwern [poem]
2d
0
27Security Mindset: Hacking Pinball High Scores
5mo
3
215If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid—seriate it!
5mo
7
61October The First Is Too Late
5mo
10
60Ideas for benchmarking LLM creativity
10mo
11
136"Can AI Scaling Continue Through 2030?", Epoch AI (yes)
1y
4
22"On the Impossibility of Superintelligent Rubik’s Cube Solvers", Claude 2024 [humor]
1y
6
176FHI (Future of Humanity Institute) has shut down (2005–2024)
2y
22
428Douglas Hofstadter changes his mind on Deep Learning & AI risk (June 2023)?
2y
54
72COVID-19 Group Testing Post-mortem?
Q
3y
Q
6
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Adaptation Executors
6 years ago
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Adaptation Executors
6 years ago
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LessWrong Presence on Reddit
6 years ago
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Simulation Hypothesis
9 years ago
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Bayesian Conspiracy
9 years ago
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Bayesian Conspiracy
9 years ago
On Designing AI (Sequence)
9 years ago
Robot
9 years ago
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Robot
9 years ago
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Robot
9 years ago
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