It can be both, of course. Start with process supervision but combine it with... something else. It's hard to learn how to reason from scratch, but it's also clearly not doing pure strict imitation learning, because the transcripts & summaries are just way too weird to be any kind of straightforward imitation learning of expert transcripts (or even ones collected from users or the wild).

Also worth noting Dustin Moskowitz was a prominent enough donor this election cycle, for Harris, to get highlighted in news coverage of her donors: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3179215/kamala-harris-influential-megadonors/ https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/09/us/politics/harris-billion-dollar-fundraising.html

There's no way I can meaningfully pick from like 100 covers. Pick 5 or 10, max, if you expect meaningful votes from people.

The extensive effort they make to integrate into legacy systems & languages shows how important that is.

codyz is doubling down on the UFO claims, but as far as I can see, the case has fallen apart so completely no one even wants to discuss it and even Tyler Cowen & Robin Hanson have stopped nudge-nudge-wink-winking it for now.

So I hereby double my unilateral bet to $2,000.

Show me a field where replication crises tear through, exposing fraud and rot and an emperor that never had any clothes, a field where replications fail so badly that they result in firings and polemics in the New York Times and destroyed careers- and then I will show you a field that is a little confused but has the spirit and will get there sooner or later.

So... parapsychology? How'd that work out? Did they have the (ahem) spirit and get there sooner or later?

Considering that one of the primary barriers to civilian nuclear power plants was, and remains, nuclear bomb proliferation risk, I'm not sure how telling this analogy is. There's a big reason that nuclear power plants right now are associated with either avowed nuclear powers or powers that want to be nuclear powers at some point (eg. France, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, Iran, Pakistan...) or countries closely aligned with said nuclear powers. Or rather, it seems to me that the analogy goes the opposite of how you wanted: if someone had 'solved' nuclear reactor design by coming up with a type of nuclear reactor which was provably impossible to abuse for nukes, that would have been a lot more useful for nuclear reactor design than fiddling with details about how exactly to boil water to drive a turbine. If you solve the latter, you have not solved the former at all; if you solve the former, someone will solve the latter. And if you don't, 'nuclear power plant' suddenly becomes a design problem which includes things like 'resistant to Israeli jet strikes' or 'enables manipulation of international inspectors' or 'relies on a trustworthy closely-allied superpower rather than untrustworthy one for support like spent fuel reprocessing and refueling'.

That is what someone might claim, yes, to avoid losing face by too visibly caring about losing face or attempting to manipulate it.

Can't you do this as polls in a single comment?

The fact that Bob has this policy in the first place is more likely when he's being self-deceptive.

A fun fictional example here is Bester's The Demolished Man: how do you plan & carry out an assassination when telepaths are routinely eavesdropping on your mind? The protagonist visits a company musician, requesting a musical earworm for a company song to help the workers' health or something; alas! the earworm gets stuck in his head, and so all any telepath hears is the earworm. And you can't blame a man for having an earworm stuck in his head, now can you? He has an entirely legitimate reason for that to be there, which 'explains away' the evidence of the deception hypothesis that telepathic-immunity would otherwise support.