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Comment author: ArisKatsaris 02 November 2017 12:35:34AM 0 points [-]

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Comment author: gwern 04 November 2017 12:13:16AM 1 point [-]
Comment author: VipulNaik 31 October 2017 05:35:43AM *  0 points [-]

I tried looking in the IRS Form 990 dataset on Amazon S3, specifically searching the text files for forms published in 2017 and 2016.

I found no match for (case-insensitive) openai (other than one organization that was clearly different, its name had openair in it). Searching (case-insensitive) "open ai" gave matches that all had "open air" or "open aid" in them. So, it seems like either they have a really weird legal name or their Form 990 has not yet been released. Googling didn't reveal any articles of incorporation or legal name.

Comment author: gwern 02 November 2017 12:33:08AM 1 point [-]

As I said, their 2016 From 990 is not yet available (so their 2017 one definitely isn't) and I have already asked them so there can be no confusion on the matter.

Comment author: Tenoke 15 October 2017 09:21:08AM *  1 point [-]

Yeah, this survey was pretty disappointing - I had to stop myself from making a negative comment after I took it (though someone else had). I am glad you realized it, too I guess. Even things like starting with a bunch of questions about the new lesswrong-inspired site, and the spacing between words were off, let alone the things you mention.

I am honestly a little sad that someone more competent in matters like these like gwern didn't take over (as I always assumed will happen if yvain gave up on doing it), because half-hearted attempts like this probably hurt a lot more than help - e.g. someone coming back in 4 months and seeing how we've went down to only 300 (!) responders in the annual survey is going to assume LW is even more dead than it really is. This reasoning goes beyond the survey.

Comment author: gwern 30 October 2017 07:55:41PM 2 points [-]

I did intend to take over the survey if Yvain stopped, although I didn't tell him in the hopes he would keep doing it rather than turn it over immediately. I'm not sure I would take it over now: the results seem increasingly irrelevant as I'm not sure the people taking the survey overlap much anymore as with the original LW surveys in 2009.

Comment author: gwern 30 October 2017 07:53:25PM 1 point [-]

Just going to make a minor point that OpenAI does not have $1b (and anyway, they don't spend most of their money on AI risk but generic AI research), they have only a pledge for $1b from Musk. I've asked them several times for their Form 990, which would show how much money they actually have, but their 2016 one is still unavailable.

Recent updates to gwern.net (2016-2017)

7 gwern 20 October 2017 02:11AM

Previously: 2011; 2012-2013; 2013-2014; 2014-2015; 2015-2016

“Every season hath its pleasures; / Spring may boast her flowery prime, / Yet the vineyard’s ruby treasures / Brighten Autumn’s sob’rer time.”

Another year of my completed writings, sorted by topic:

continue reading »
Comment author: gwern 20 October 2017 01:45:08AM 3 points [-]

If anyone wants more details, I have extensive discussion & excerpts from the paper & DM QAs at https://www.reddit.com/r/reinforcementlearning/comments/778vbk/mastering_the_game_of_go_without_human_knowledge/

[Link] The NN/tank Story Probably Never Happened

2 gwern 20 October 2017 01:41AM
Comment author: MaryCh 15 October 2017 11:09:19AM 1 point [-]

Warning: please don't read if you are triggered by a discussion of post-mortem analysis (might come up in the comments).

I want to have my body donated to science, well, afterwards, and to convince my twin sister to organize the same thing; there's probably a dearth of comparative post-mortem studies of adult (aged) human twins. However, my husband said he wouldn't do it. I don't want to argue with him about something we both hope won't be an issue for many years to come, so, in pure scientific interest:

what would you think it would be interesting to study in such a setting?

Sorry if I offended you, it wasn't my intention. Just can't ask this on facebook, my Mom would eat me alive.

Comment author: gwern 17 October 2017 08:21:24PM 1 point [-]

You could look into joining a twin registry. Discordant-twin designs are fairly powerful, but still need n>50 or something like that to be worth doing. Plus if you keep your own novel set of data, people will be less interested in analyzing it compared to a twin registry using a familiar set of questionnaires/scales/measures. (One of the reasons you see so much from twin registries or the UK Biobank: consistent measurements.) It would've been best if you two had been enrolled as kids, but perhaps better late than never.

In response to comment by gwern on Magical Categories
Comment author: gwern 01 October 2017 07:30:26PM *  1 point [-]

Another version is provided by Ed Fredkin via Eliezer Yudkowsky in http://lesswrong.com/lw/7qz/machine_learning_and_unintended_consequences/

At the end of the talk I stood up and made the comment that it was obvious that the picture with the tanks was made on a sunny day while the other picture (of the same field without the tanks) was made on a cloudy day. I suggested that the "neural net" had merely trained itself to recognize the difference between a bright picture and a dim picture.

This is still not a source because it's a recollection 50 years later and so highly unreliable, and even at face value, all Fredkin did was suggest that the NN might have picked up on a lighting difference; this is not proof that it did, much less all the extraneous details of how they had 50 photos in this set and 50 in that and then the Pentagon deployed it and it failed in the field (and what happened to it being set in the 1980s?). Classic urban legend/myth behavior: accreting plausible entertaining details in the retelling.

In response to comment by gwern on Magical Categories
Comment author: gwern 17 October 2017 08:17:35PM 2 points [-]

I've compiled and expanded all the examples at https://www.gwern.net/Tanks

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 01 October 2017 02:08:25AM 0 points [-]

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Comment author: gwern 17 October 2017 07:05:04PM 1 point [-]

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