Why You're Stuck in a Narrative

38 hegemonicon 04 August 2009 12:31AM

For some reason the narrative fallacy does not seem to get as much play as the other major cognitive fallacies. Apart from discussions of "The Black Swan", I never see it mentioned anywhere. Perhaps this is because it's not considered a "real" bias, or because it's an amalgamation of several lower-level biases, or because it's difficult to do controlled studies for. Regardless, I feel it's one of the more pernicious and damaging fallacies, and as such deserves an internet-indexable discussion.
From Taleb's "The Black Swan"
The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding.
Essentially, the narrative fallacy is our tendency to turn everything we see into a story - a linear chain of cause and effect, with a beginning and an end. Obviously the real world isn't like this - events are complex and interrelated, direct causation is extremely rare, and outcomes are probabilistic. Verbally, we know this - the hard part, as always, is convincing our brain of the fact.
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Five Stages of Idolatry

6 hegemonicon 25 July 2009 06:16PM

We all have heroes or idols, people we look up to and turn to, in one form or another, for guidance or wisdom. Over the years, I've noticed that my feelings towards those I've idolized tend to follow a predictable pattern. The following is the extraction of this pattern.

Stage 1: Exposure - you're exposed to the idol through some channel. Maybe something you read, or someone you know, or simply by chance. You begin to learn about them, and you become intrigued. If it's an author, maybe you pick up one of his books. If it's a group, maybe you check out their website. You begin to gradually absorb what the idol is offering. They don't actually become an idol though, until...
Stage 2: Resonance - after enough exposure, what the idol offers begins to strike a chord with you. You go on to ravenously consume everything related to it. You track down every one of the authors publications, or spend hours staring at all of an artists' paintings. As far as I can tell what's important here isn't actually the content of what the idol offers, but that feeling of resonance it engenders.
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