1/googolplex seems pretty pointless. There's no way anyone can precommit well enough for that to matter. You could be another AI that the Oracle has the source to, and it will never be certain enough of its prediction to accept the 1/googolplex.

Then again, you can't actually offer something that low for similar reasons.

JERRY (SEINFELD): I never get enough sleep. I stay up late at night, cause I'm Night Guy. Night Guy wants to stay up late. 'What about getting up after five hours sleep?', oh that's Morning Guy's problem. That's not my problem, I'm Night Guy. I stay up as late as I want. So you get up in the morning, you're ..... (?), you're exhausted, groggy, oooh I hate that Night Guy! See, Night Guy always screws Morning Guy. There's nothing Morning Guy can do. The only Morning Guy can do is try and oversleep often enough so that Day Guy looses his job and Night Guy has no money to go out anymore.

You can punish and intimidate your future self, as you can see.

But... but... Light actually won, didn't he? At least in the short run - he managed to defeat L. I was always under the impression that some of these "mistakes" were committed by Light deliberately in order to lure L.

Is there an analogous experiment for Tegmark's multiverse?

You set up an experiment so that you survive only if some outcome, anticipated by your highly improbable theory of physics, is true.

Then you wake up in a world which is with high probability governed by your theory.

If I understand correctly, under MW you anticipate the experience of surviving with probability 1, and under C with probability 0.5. I don't think that's justified.

In both cases the probability should be either conditional on "being there to experience anything" (and equal 1), OR unconditional (equal the "external" probability of survival, 0.5). This is something in between. You take the external probability in C, but condition on the surviving branches in MW.

Something I've mentioned before, but usually as part of a reply to something else: I strongly believe that the work would benefit from being officially divided into different books. Chapter 63 was incredibly cathartic to read, partly because it was a very intense chapter that resolved a lot of stuff, but partly because at the time, we knew a hiatus was coming and that it was the End™ of a particular section. That, in combination with the fact it touched upon every single plot thread, made it feel more potent. And the PDF version, at that time, was a little over 1000 pages, which is about right for a Harry Potter book.

It's also a daunting to get new people to read something when there's a bajillion chapters. I don't know if you're planning for two parts or three, but presumably there will be at least 120 chapters when this is done, if not 180+. I had better luck getting new people to read it when I specifically said "book 1 just finished, I can give you the PDF of that," and I think that's in part because "one book" is a friendlier way of measuring length than some large number of pages.

Fanfiction.net might have specific rules, or you might want to just keep things consistent there. But I'd like it if when the next section is finished, you do a PDF that gets treated as its own separate book.

(I also feel like Part I could benefit from being divided into subsections. For instance, the first 20ish chapters end with Harry sending the letter to his parents, which felt like a good stopping point, as did the Christmas break which gives us a pause before the events leading to Azkaban kick into overdrive. I'm less concerned about that, but I do feel like having discrete chunks to show to people makes it less daunting to begin reading).

It adds a "friend" CSS class to your friend's username everywhere, so you can add an user style or some other hack to highlight it. There is probably a reason LessWrong doesn't do it by default, though.

I'd donate a moderate sum towards the implementation of the karma threshold, be it 1 or 5. Can someone estimate how much the implementation might cost?

Also, I have a contact of a Python programmer (a pretty rare breed here in provincial Russia), so I can try to outsource the implementation to him. I never worked with this guy, but I'm looking for a server-side programmer, and this mini-project could serve as a test for him.

Could someone familiar with the LW codebase look into the task and estimate how much time would a new developer need to get acquainted with the relevant part of the code?

Check the chart- the 40 is a typo. It should be 20/100=0.2

Something is wrong with the numbers here:

The probability that a randomly chosen man surived given that they were given treatment A is 40/100 = 0.2