It looks to me like everyone was horrendously underconfident on all the easy questions, and horrendously overconfident on all the hard questions.

Have you ranked questions by their easiness before you looked at the results?

You could even say that "could" for an action is always defined relative to the agent who takes that action, in which case I can simultaneously make the following two statements:

• NonSuicidalGuy could jump off the cliff.
• It is impossible that NonSuicidalGuy will hit the ground.

Isn't that a logical mistake, though? Fow that to be correct, it must be that NonSuicidalGuy will hit the ground if and only if he chooses to jump off the cliff.

Working links on yudkowsky.net and acceleratingfuture.com:

Transhumanism as Simplified Humanism The Meaning That Immortality Gives to Life