How do you know your new belief is more accurate than your old belief?
Hm, because I spend more time researching the issue than I had before? That should count for something, shouldn't it?
Also, I can actually explain things like decoherence without hand-waving now. Looking back there were some gaps in my understanding that I just brushed over. You could say it was a failure of rationality to give as much credence to the Copenhagen interpretation in the first place.
Probably not too interesting, but after studying physics at university I was pretty sure that the Many-Worlds interpretation of QM was crazy-talk (nobody even really mentioned it at uni). Of course I didn't read Eliezer's sequence on QM (although I read the others). I mean I had a degree in physics and Eliezer didn't.
Then after seeing it over and over again on LW, I actually read this paper to see what it was all about. And I was enlightened. Well, I had a short crisis of faith first, then I was enlightened.
This all could have been avoided if I had read that paper earlier. The lesson is that I can't even trust my fellow physicists :(
I'm also in the process of signing up. I already submitted the application for life insurance and filled out the membership application form by Alcor. The next step then is to meet up with a notary and transfer ownership of the insurance policy to Alcor. After that, Alcor has to check the documents and then I will hopefully be a full member.
I've also heard rumors that Alcor is considering opening a new facility in Switzerland. But even if that's true it will take years and will probably not be cheaper than storage in the US. Though maybe easier to sign up for.
Concerning your second question, from my understanding adequate cooling is really easy, keeping the body in ice water should be enough. That's also how they preserve donated organs, I think.
Define "miracle". It's not well-understood what causes the leaders in lightning. Could this be considered a miracle in support of the existence of Thor?
Hm, substitute 'miracle' with 'supernatural phenomenon', then.
("supernatural" still in this sense: A "supernatural" explanation appeals to ontologically basic mental things, mental entities that cannot be reduced to nonmental entities.)
So the question of whether lightning is a supernatural phenomenon or not is now about an empirical fact, not about my own ignorance. If the lightning is due to electrically charged regions in clouds, it's natural. If it's due to Thor's rage and only a god can produce it, it's supernatural.
And of course even if we think that lightning is a supernatural phenomenon it could still be Zeus and not Thor ;)
There is no logical argument against miracles. They could exist.
But there really is no reliable evidence for them. If there was, I would also think this is a supernatural universe. But as it stands I'm pretty sure this is a natural universe, without souls and without praying superpowers.
I mean have you heard about the beatification of Pope John Paul II? A nun with symptoms similar to Parkinson's was healed after she prayed to John Paul. She even had a relapse but they went with it anyway.
Germany’s plans in the event of a two front war [WW I] were the results of years of study on the part of great soldiers, the German General Staff. That those plans failed was not due to any unsoundness on the part of the plans, but rather due to the fact that the plans could not be carried out by the field armies.
An official Army War College publication, 1923
While reverse stupidity isn't intelligence, learning how others rationalize failure can help us recognize our own mistakes.
Edited to reflect hydkyll's comment.
How do you know it's a German Army War College publication? Reasons for my doubt:
"Ellis Bata" doesn't sound at all like a German name.
There was no War College in Germany in 1923. There were some remains of the Prussian Military Academy, but the Treaty of Versailles forbid work being done there. The academy wasn't reactivated until 1935.
The academy in Prussia isn't usually called "Army War College". However, there are such academies in Japan, India and the US.
The label bio is always a quite interesting one. On the one hand the label supports bigger cages for animals and thus serves utilitarian purposes. On the other hand it leads to some farming choices for which there no real reason.
The EU commission just discovered that chicken eggs by nature are neither red nor blue and therefore painting them red or blue might violate the bio idea. Therefore the Eu commission is planning to rule that there no such thing as a red bio-egg.
http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2014/07/20/eu-kommission-will-faerben-von-ostereiern-verbieten/ (German source)
(I think what we call Bio in German is called "organic" in English.)
This is the outline of a conversation that took part no fewer than 14 times on Friday just past, between me and a number of close friends.
"Life is like an RPG. Often, a wise, kind, and and deeply important character (hand gesture to myself) gives a quest item to a lowly, unsuspecting, otherwise plain character (hand gesture to friend). As a result of this, this young character goes on to be a great hero in an important quest.
Now, here with me today, I have a quest item.
For you.
But I can only give it to you if you shake on the following oath; that, once you have finished with this item, when you have taken what you require from it, that then, you too shall find someone for whom this will be of great utility, and pass it along. They must also shake on this oath."
"I will."
Handshake occurs.
"Here is your physical copy of the first 16 and a half chapters of 'Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality'."
This is a great idea. I assume it's 16 and a half because of print limitations? The first 21 chapters would make more sense.
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I participated in politics at one point, getting 198 votes at the Finnish Parliamentary elections and being a board member of the Finnish Pirate Party for a while. I suspect that I would've stood a reasonable chance of eventually getting elected into some office if I'd kept up at it - the Pirates don't look like they'll be elected, but there exists a not-too-horrible more-mainstream party whose members have led me to understand that they'd be glad to have me if I was up for it. But there are a number of reasons for why I chose not to pursue that career option further, including:
What did they see in you? If I may ask. You would disagree with your fellow party members on quite a lot of things, I'd imagine.