Added to my Amazon wish list. Do you know of any other books one should be aware of?

I'll go first. I'm' in the process of applying for jobs in software. Furthermore, it'll be my first job out of college.

Any advice? What will I, five/ten years from now, wish that I had known now?

Should I take a job in a topic that I don't see myself in long-term?

In our world, classical mechanics (Newton + Maxwell and their logical implications) holds for most everyday experiences at slow speeds (relative to the speed of light) and at scales larger than the atomic realm.*

Question: Is this necessarily true for every possible world that matches our macroscopic physical observations? Is it possible to construct an alternative set of physical laws such that the world would function exactly as our world does on a macroscopic, everyday level, but that would violate Newton's laws or Maxwell's laws or thermodynamics or the like? Again, I'm not talking about violating those laws in extreme cases (close to the speed of light, tiny scales) where these laws don't really apply even in our world. I'm talking about a world where even the everyday approximate equations of physics, as expressed in classical mechanics, do not apply.

Said another way: If you messed with Newton's equations or Maxwell's equations or thermodynamics even a little bit, would the world necessarily function differently in such a way that we could tell that you'd messed with the laws? Would it function so differently as to be unrecognizable?

Or said yet another way: Do our macroscopic experiences entail that the equations of classical mechanics are at least a very good approximation of the underlying physics?

I'd especially appreciate sources / references / links to further reading.

[*Leaving aside the types of modern technology which bring quantum mechanical effects into the everyday observable world.]

So I was wondering what career is best in terms of being able to accumulate wealth and having a decent quality of life. I've heard finance jobs are good.

[Survey Taken Thread]

By ancient tradition, if you take the survey you may comment saying you have done so here, and people will upvote you and you will get karma.

Let's make these comments a reply to this post. That way we continue the tradition, but keep the discussion a bit cleaner.

How about the Grad Student Advice Repository?

I'm an undergrad going for a major in statistics and minors in computer science and philosophy. I also read a lot of philosophy and cognitive science on the side. I don't have the patience to read through all of the LW sequences. Which LW sequences / articles do you think are important for me to read that I won't get from school or philosophy reading?

Some political predictions (Edited for formatting):

• Another stock market slump within the next year: 50% (70% within two years)
• Cor: Average stock value collapse, given slump, of 70%, +- 10%: 90%
• Trump to get Republican nomination: 65%
• Cruz to get Republican nomination: 35%
• Hillary to get Democratic nomination: 30%
• Rel: Hillary to be indicted on criminal charges: 50%
• Sanders to get Democratic nomination: 60%
• Republicans to win 2016 presidential race, regardless of nomination: 80%
• Republicans to win moderate majority in both houses in 2016: 80%
• Republicans to keep moderate majority in congress in 2018 given economic crash: 60%
• Republicans to keep at least parity in congress in 2018 given economic crash: 80%
• Republicans to keep moderate majority in congress in 2018 without economic crash: 30%
• Republicans to keep at least parity in congress in 2018 without economic crash: 60%
• Democrats to win 2020 presidential election without economic crash: 40%
• Democrats to win 2020 presidential election with economic crash: 10%
• Democrats to win 2024 presidential election, given loss of 2020 presidential election, without economic crash: 80%
• Democrats to win 2024 presidential election, given loss of 2020 presidential election, with economic crash: 70%
• US National Health Database goes online in next ten years: 30%
• WHO to change Health Index ranking rules substantially given the US national health database goes online: 60%
• WHO to change Health Index ranking rules substantially given the US national health database doesn't go online: 10%
• Average global temperatures to warm by more than .7 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 0%
• Average global temperatures to warm by more than .5 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 0%
• Average global temperatures to warm by more than .3 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 10%
• Average global temperatures to warm by more than .1 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 20%
• Average global temperatures to warm by more than .07 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 30%
• Average global temperatures to warm by more than .04 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 70%
• Major military conflict between two first world nations over the next ten years: 10%
• Threat of major military conflict between two first world nations over the next ten years: 70%

Moderately.

On the plus side it's forcing people to acknowledge the uncertainty involved in many numbers they use.

On the minus side it's treating everything as a normal (Gaussian) distribution. That's a common default assumption, but it's not necessarily a good assumption. To start with an obvious problem, a lot of real-world values are bounded, but the normal distribution is not.

Link: Introducing Guesstimate, a Spreadsheet for Things That Aren’t Certain

How useful do you think this actually is?