Hrm... I tend to get more a feeling of irritation/"GAH! SHADUPSHADUPDHADUP" (depending on mood/how bad it is)

The problem is, I'm not sure I can properly separate the "bad logic" reaction from the "how dare you argue against a position I support and thus implicitly challenge my status?" thing. (Actually detecting explicitly the bad logic is one thing, but the "feel" of it might just be that other feeling. ie, I might simply be noticing or remembering as more egregious the instances of bad logic that were against my position. Although I do find bad logic that supports my positions to be annoying too.)

If reality were computed in reverse chronological order, what differences would you expect to see?

Suppose our universe was produced by specifying some particular final state, and then repeatedly computing predecessor states according to some deterministic laws of nature. Would we experience time backward? Or would we still experience it forward (the reverse of the direction of the simulation) because of some time assymetry in the physical laws or in the entropy of the initial vs final states?

Everyone always assumes that the simulation will proceed "foreward". Is that important? I honestly don't know.

Probably no one will ever see this comment, but.

"I wish I knew where reality got its computing power."

If reality had less computing power, what differences would you expect to see? You're part of the computation, after all; if everything stood still for a few million meta-years while reality laboriously computed the next step, there's no reason this should affect what you actually end up experiencing, any more than it should affect whether planets stay in their orbits or not. For all we know, our own computers are much faster (from our perspective) than the machines on which the Dark Lords of the Matrix are simulating us (from their perspective).

"Sanity is conforming your thoughts to reality. Conforming reality to your thoughts is creativity."

-- Unknown

I love this post.

The really depressing thing about my "ugh fields" is how they stop me from doing things that really aren't even difficult or time-consuming, like filling out a one-page form and putting it in the mail. On the other hand, this is just as likely to come up with things that may be difficult or time-consuming, but are in some sense 'fun' for me: for instance, I've found it steadily harder to buckle down and study as I've progressed through school, in a topic (mathematics) that I started in because it was fun for me.

I hope maybe having the phrase "ugh field" to associate to this, will remind me to do something about it. I'd like to say it will improve my life, but I'll have to go live some of my life for a while and see how improved it is.

I guess what I should do is make some sort of rule: When I encounter an Ugh Field, I should immediately do whatever thing it is I'm feeling the 'ugh' about.

Hi.

It's been quite a while since I posted here, so long that I initially couldn't remember my username. I rarely have much to add, and even though "I agree with this post" posts are, I think, slightly more accepted here than in some places, just agreeing doesn't by itself motivate me to say so most of the time.

On a cursory reading of Wikipedia the obvious interpretation is that Knox and Sollecito are innocent and Guede is guilty. I didn't go through all the sites so I don't know if this would qualify as a litmus test, and assigning probabilities in this state of knowledge would be extra work.

EDIT: Read comments and am surprised at how many estimates of "Knox and Sollecito probably didn't do it" have probabilities in the range of 40% attached that they did. If it were a binary judgment or a confidence interval, then yes we should avoid extreme probabilities and widen intervals to compensate for known overconfidence biases. But in this case the hypothesis space of equally plausible possibilities is large, and some low-probability symbols were used to write the message (multi-person rape-murder vs. single-person rape-murder, female rape-murder vs. male rape-murder). It may not always be easy to unravel crime scenes (though this one sounds pretty straightforward) but to focus on Knox or Sollecito seems like privileging the hypothesis.

Unless there's major prosecutorial evidence not in Wikipedia, then this seems like a case of paying too much attention to other people's opinions (the jury, in a case where we have further information that the verdict gained media attention as possibly inaccurate), and I would suggest that anyone who gave a probability higher than .15 be more arrogant in the future.

If, of course, I just haven't done enough reading, then ignore the above.

my somewhat admittedly sketchy reasoning:

I go to the University of Washington where there is considerable interest in the case. Of the people who have only been marginally involved in the case, most believe that Amanda Knox is innocent. Of the people who are interested in the case, many believe she is guilty. There's an obvious hometown effect here which biases towards innocence so I'm assuming those who look into the case are taking that into account when and still reach a guilty verdict.

Therefore, I assign a 70% probability to Amanda Knox being guilty (+ or - 30%).

Amanda Knox being Guilty: 90%

Raffaele Sollecito being Guilty 90%

Rudy Guede being guilty: 90%

I hope you agree with me because no one else in the comments seem too. I'm gonna give the probability of you agreeing with me 75% based on my own arrogance and belief that I'm right and based and little else really.

Most people seem to believe Rudy Guede is guilty so lets skip that and look at the other two. They've changed their stories and have been proven to have lied quite a few times. For example Rudy at one point said he was at home surfing the internet but his alibi is not substantiated by records of his internet service provider.
Amanda at one point said she was round Rudy's house till 10am (later changing her story) but according to a witness she was at the store as soon as it opened to buy cleaning products.

That alone is some strong evidence that they are both guilty.

If they were innocent there would be no need to lie.

Probably the most damning piece of evidence is this:

When Sollecito's home was searched, a knife was found in a kitchen drawer that contained small traces of Kercher's DNA on the blade, and Knox's on the handle.

There really is no other explanation for that. Unless she was round Sollecito's home at some earlier date and cut herself on his knife.

Here's another nail in the coffin:

Sollecito's footprint was found in blood in Kercher's room.
Don't forget this was behind a locked door!

Add all that evidence to the cleaning up afterwards, the body being covered, the rape fantasies Knox had, Sollecito's DNA on her bra etc. etc. All three of them clearly killed her. The jury clearly believed so as well which strengthens my argument. They spent months examining the case, so the idea that a few minutes of internet research makes you certain they're wrong seems laughable.

I didn't know anything about this case until I read this post.

My first impression: Wow, there sure is a lot of information on what a nice person Meredith Kercher was on that one site, and what a nice person Amanda Knox is on that other site. (The latter is at least potentially relevant, if you think a nasty person is more likely to kill someone.)

Anyway: Knox : ~35%; Sollecito : ~35%; Guede : ~95%. And I'd say it's about 60% that all of these probabilities are on the same side of 50% as yours.

(I had a bunch of information here on how I came to my opinion, but I don't think it's really important. Suffice it to say that the evidence I've seen against Ms. Knox and Mr. Sollecito is pretty terrible, but the evidence I haven't seen may be much better.)

Anyway, if those are the best, clearest sources available to me then I am pretty doubtful of my ability to form a useful opinion on this case at all.