“Now, it does seem to me that following the usual rules of probability theory ... tells Sleeping Beauty to assign .5 credence to the proposition that the coin landed on heads.”
I think that your 1/3 answer is entirely consistent with the usual rules of probability theory, at least once a highly intuitive caveat is added: Given no new information, the odds do not change unless some old information has been lost. Usually, we implicitly assume that information is not lost so there's no need for the caveat, but amnesia inducing drugs radically violate the assu... (read more)
“Now, it does seem to me that following the usual rules of probability theory ... tells Sleeping Beauty to assign .5 credence to the proposition that the coin landed on heads.”
I think that your 1/3 answer is entirely consistent with the usual rules of probability theory, at least once a highly intuitive caveat is added: Given no new information, the odds do not change unless some old information has been lost. Usually, we implicitly assume that information is not lost so there's no need for the caveat, but amnesia inducing drugs radically violate the assu... (read more)