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I distinctly recall reading SIAI documents from ~2000 claiming they had until between 2005 and 2010...
Also, in a 2002 interview, Eliezer said that "a few years back" before the interview his actual guess at when the singularity would occur was between 2008 and 2015, but he would say that it would occur between 2005 and 2020 in order to give a conservative estimate.
Here's a month's worth:
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10153041257924228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10153033570824228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10153030238814228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10153021749629228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152977126839228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152972605814228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152972301299228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152964087234228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152957903859228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152947952344228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152946520029228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152945423789228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152941108249228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152940624254228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152938634304228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152937953959228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152933586294228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152929868929228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152919146569228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152918491764228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152915799124228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152912313154228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152908949454228
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152904788444228
Thank you! This is great.
In response to
Open thread, Jan. 19 - Jan. 25, 2015
Since Eliezer has forsaken us in favor of posting on Facebook, can somebody with an account please link to his posts? His page cannot be read by someone who is not logged in, but individual posts can be read if the url is provided. As someone who abandoned his Facebook account years ago, I find this frustrarting.
In response to
Open thread, Jan. 12 - Jan. 18, 2015
Is there any way to block distracting software on my computer? There are a blue million apps that will block websites, but I can't find any that will stop me from playing games I've installed. Ideally, I'd like some software that lets me play my games, but only after a 10 minute wait. But I'd settle for anything now that can restrict my access to games without uninstalling them entirely.
The idea that playing an instrument is a hobby while playing a video game isn't is completely cultural. It says something about values but little about competence.
One important difference is that video games are optimized to be fun while musical instruments aren't. Therefore, playing an instrument can signal discipline in a way that playing a game can't.
The link is broken. Could you please provide a new one?
In response to
Stupid Questions December 2014
It seems like we suck at using scales "from one to ten". Video game reviews nearly always give a 7-10 rating. Competitions with scores from judges seem to always give numbers between eight and ten, unless you crash or fall, and get a five or six. If I tell someone my mood is a 5/10, they seem to think I'm having a bad day. That is, we seem to compress things into the last few numbers of the scale. Does anybody know why this happens? Possible explanations that come to mind include:
People are scoring with reference to the high end, where "nothing is wrong", and they do not want to label things as more than two or three points worse than perfect
People are thinking in terms of grades, where 75% is a C. People think most things are not worse than a C grade (or maybe this is just another example of the pattern I'm seeing)
I'm succumbing to confirmation bias and this isn't a real pattern
I'm succumbing to confirmation bias and this isn't a real pattern
No, this is definitely a real pattern. YouTube switched from a 5-star rating system to a like/dislike system when they noticed, and videogames are notorious for rank inflation.
Four to six classes a year, out of about twelve in total? That doesn't sound too bad to me. I took about that many non-major classes when I was in school, although they didn't build on each other like the curriculum I proposed.
It may amuse you to note that I was basically designing that as a modernized liberal arts curriculum, with more emphasis on stats and econ and with some stuff (languages, music) stripped out to accommodate major courses. Obviously there's some tension between the vocational and the liberal aims here, but I know enough people who e.g. got jobs at Google with philosophy degrees that I think there's enough room for some of the latter.
Four to six classes a year, out of about twelve in total? That doesn't sound too bad to me. I took about that many non-major classes when I was in school, although they didn't build on each other like the curriculum I proposed.
I studied at two state universities. At both of them, classes were measured in "credit hours" corresponding to an hour of lecture per week. A regular class was three credit hours and semester loads at both universities were capped at eighteen credits, corresponding to six regular classes per semester and twelve regular classes per year (excluding summers). Few students took this maximal load, however. The minimum semester load for full-time students was twelve credit hours and sample degree plans tended to assume semester loads of fifteen credit hours, both of which were far more typical.
Home appliances cut down quite a bit on "household slavery". And while you might argue that home-based work is preferable to market work due to having a "kinder, more caring master", the swift demise of cottage industry once early factories became feasible suggests that folks care more about how productive they are than whether they can work from home.
And while you might argue that home-based work is preferable to market work due to having a "kinder, more caring master", the swift demise of cottage industry once early factories became feasible suggests that folks care more about how productive they are than whether they can work from home.
I think that was just Moloch.
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Now that the cat's out of the bag, I wonder whether Quirrell set up Hermione and the troll as an excuse to Fiendfyre his way through some of Hogwart's walls.
Quirrell's internal monologue makes that unlikely.