jbeshir

Way back in April 2018, I announced a Prediction Contest, in which the person who made the best predictions on a bunch of questions on PredictionBook ahead of a 1st July deadline would win a prize after they all resolved in January 2019, which is now. It was a bit...

Summary: Make predictions on all the listed predictions before the end of June 2018, and if your predictions are the best you'll win $200 after they all settle in January. About This is happening! Motivations discussed in the earlier post here, I'm running a prediction contest for the rationalist and...

Summary: I think it is worth running a contest to measure ability to make accurate predictions, and am prepared to put up a prize of $200 for the winner. I need to identify a base of 20-50 propositions, all likely to settle within 2-10 months from now, and would like...