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Amanda Knox guilty: .01
Raffaele Sollecito guilty: .01
Rudy Guede guilty: .99
I've become highly familiar with this case since the verdict came down. Over the last 2 years, I've heard bits and pieces about it and all along had assumed Amanda and Raffaele were guilty. I'm a little embarrassed to admit how much time I've spent reading up on the case recently - I think I'm motivated to learn more because I'm perfectly appalled at the amount of misogyny (not necessarily anti-Americanism) I see from the prosecution and the European media with regards to Amanda Knox. I'm also appalled at how much rumor is reported as fact.
I consider myself to be highly familiar with both sides' arguments, but did as you suggested and also spent some time looking over both sites you recommended - my opinion did not change.
I'm pretty confident our opinions are shared.
Looking forward to your thoughts on this experiment of yours.
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Would anyone actually be up for discussing the specifics of the case? (I don't know why but I find myself oddly interested in this case.)
As far as I can tell, the biggest pro-defendant evidence is that there is no major DNA evidence of Sollecito and Knox in the room where murder took place. We are told that there is a bra clasp with Sollecito's DNA and a knife that has both Amanda's and Kercher's DNA - both of these DNA traces are 'weak' in the sense that they are not that obvious, require a hefty search and are hard to see in lab. On the other hand, there are 'strong' traces of Guede's DNA in the victim's blood and in the room.
So, the first thing that worries me is that if it were a crime committed by three people, why would you have one person's DNA everywhere in the room and yet two others' only faintly there?
Again, this is the strongest pro-innocent (for Knox and Sollecito) argument that I have - and the one that convinces me most likely that Sollecito and Knox haven't done it.
I don't know - can anyone else site cases in which there was a group murder and yet only a single person left behind 'strong' traces of DNA? Maybe this isn't so unusual after all.
On the pro-guilty side, I must admit that I find Knox's and Sollecito's behavior the morning after the murder and during the investigation a bit strange. If 'Meredith was [her] friend', as Amanda Knox says in her trial, why were she doing cart-wheels during the investigation the morning after the murder? Shouldn't she be distraught and upset like all of other Meredith Kercher's friends? Accuse me of the mind projection fallacy but I feel like I would be distraught (and in a bad mood) even if the victim wasn't someone I knew.
But again, strange behavior isn't really an evidence. It's just something that makes one suspicious and raises uncertainty.
I can't find that many pro-guilty arguments. There are some tidbits that have a lot of uncertainty in them: i.e. Sollecito (allegedly) bought cleaning supplies the night of the murder allegedly again to clean up the murder mess, Sollecito claimed to be using the Internet at the time of the murder but his ISP records indicate otherwise, a woman claims to have heard three people running down that street that night.. etc. None of them as strong to make a case.
Besides these, a few other thoughts:
I really don't know how Sollecito and Knox got linked to this murder. How did they get dragged into this in the first place? Is there really evidence for the fact that it was a satanic sex-orgy gone wrong as the prosecutor claims it is? I mean, this satanic sex-orgy idea seems to be the prosecutor's imagination - there is no evidence for it.
Also, supposing Guede did it alone, would there be additional penalty or a reduction in penalty for him if he were to simply confess?
This whole thing seems to be like a backlash of conservative Italians' against whom they deem the immoral, selfish and arrogant youth. I have a hunch that the Italian prosecutor wants to punish Sollecito and Knox for a lifestyle he considers wrong.
I don't know what anyone else feels but the uncertainty of the case is somewhat disturbing. I wish there was a knockdown evidence and I could know the truth and be done with it instead of this restless search. Any else feeling that way?
I, too, find myself oddly fascinated by the case. I assumed Sollecito and Knox were guilty until just before the verdict came in, when the story was gaining more traction here in the U.S. I can't recall what it was that I read that made me question their guilt, but it set me off on a quest to learn as much as I could about it. I've basically taken details reported in the media, blogs, etc., that disturbed me and looked for the defense's OR prosecution's take on that detail. Here are the main points, and what I understand to be the truth behind the "evidence" - listed in no particular order: I wish I could provide sources, but I haven't kept track.
One of the main things that I keep in mind as I read about the case is that the prosecution leaked many details to the public which have since been proven false and public opinion was turned against Knox & Sollecito very early on based on a lot of incorrect information. The same incorrect information still abounds on the internet and in many minds.
Bleach. I had read a number of times that Knox and/or Sollecito had purchased bleach around 7 AM of the morning following the murder. I'd even read that there were receipts confirming this. However, upon further investigation, I've read a few things refuting this. Most importantly, there was no mention of bleach in the prosecution's case. Supposedly there IS a receipt, but it's dated a month before the the murder.
DNA. I tend to believe the defense on this. The miniscule amount of DNA on the victim's bra clasp and the miniscule amount of victim's DNA on the knife blade cannot be discounted as contamination in the lab. Also, if there was really a sex game gone awry as the prosecution claims, you'd think there'd be a whole mess of DNA from all parties involved. And as to the presence of Knox' DNA mixed with the victim's DNA in the bathroom, well any rational observer could explain that as a normal consequence of cohabitation. On the other hand, there appear to be abundant examples of Guede's DNA throughout the crime scene.
Guede's confession. I'd read that he did NOT implicate Knox or Sollecito in his original confession. But later (presumably after he had been made aware of their status as suspects) he changed his story to include them. Naturally - as their involvement would be very useful for scapegoating the actual murder.
Knox' "confession" and implication of the innocent Lumumba, her boss, which many take as a sign of her guilt. I'd read that the police used a text message she'd sent earlier in the evening to Lumumba, after he'd given her the night off, which said "see you later." Apparently, the Italian police took this to mean they had an actual appointment to see each other later, instead of as a generic farewell. I'm assuming the police were considering Lumumba as a potential suspect, and I wouldn't be surprised if their line of questioning when interrogating Amanda led to this suggestion in her mind as well.
Knox' behavior. This is where the trial strikes me as most ridiculous. The fact that she turned cartwheels after police questioning doesn't really surprise me all that much. Perhaps this is how she alleviates stress. Who knows. I'd probably think it was a little weird, but certainly not evidence of guilt. She was seen buying "lingerie" (underwear) a few days after the murder, and she was with Sollecito. Well, as it turns out, she was shut out of her apartment and had nothing but the clothes on her back. I'd probably run out to buy underwear right away too. And as to the suggestive remark Sollecito was overheard making, well, so what. He claims it was in jest, and that wouldn't surprise me at all ... again, like the cartwheels, maybe a little humor alleviates their stress.
Knox' sex life. I'm shocked at how irrelevant it is to this murder case. She was (falsely) told she was HIV positive while in jail so that she'd give up the names of her sex partners, which totaled 7. 7 partners In her entire life, not in the weeks she'd been in Italy. Again, it's irrelevant, but many minds were poisoned against her by little tidbits like this.
Knox' character. You'd think that there'd be signs of something not quite right in a person who could do as the prosecution alleges. Yet in interview after interview, Amanda's friends, family and others who knew her could not point to anything that might reveal a side to her character capable of such horrific acts. I recommend reading this article, http://www.friendsofamanda.org/files/Radar_Knox.pdf, - linked from the FOA site - especially for the quotes from Lisa Pasko, a criminology professor at the University of Denver who specializes in young women who commit violent crimes. "If Amanda Knox is guilty, says Pasko, “this crime goes against everything we know about criminology.”
Based on all of the above, I believe the probability that Knox and Sollecito are guilty of Kercher's murder is extremely low.