Comment author: Yuu 05 April 2012 04:09:47PM 1 point [-]

Could you specify location of the minicamp? Or suggest several possible locations? I just want to calculate trip time from San Francisco International Airport, I also hope it will be useful information for all applicants outside of USA, like me.

Comment author: jpulgarin 09 April 2012 11:56:52PM 1 point [-]

The previous camps were held in Berkeley, and I'm fairly sure these will be held there as well. They also picked up the camp participants from the airport last time.

Comment author: Alex_Altair 19 March 2012 01:21:34PM 2 points [-]

The ability to highlight and have it automatically sync to Amazon servers makes Anki deck making A LOT easier.

How exactly do you use this to make Anki decks?

Comment author: jpulgarin 19 March 2012 06:04:12PM 1 point [-]

I highlight things, mostly new ideas, that I want to memorize as I'm reading the book (the number of highlights is a good proxy to how good the book was). Then I login to Amazon, and for each highlight I make an Anki card.

This saves me from having to go through the book and find all the highlights, and also from copying the text into Anki (since I can just copy and paste).

Comment author: jpulgarin 19 March 2012 04:01:20AM 3 points [-]

A kindle has finally allowed me to start reading one book per week, something I've been trying to do for quite a while now with little success. The ability to buy books instantly, and the fact that it's much easier to take along than an actual book, means I get a ton more reading done. The ability to highlight and have it automatically sync to Amazon servers makes Anki deck making A LOT easier.

You can also sell your gift card for ~80% of its value (just google "sell gift card").

Comment author: [deleted] 06 February 2012 08:12:12PM 0 points [-]

I don't know the statistics but my impression is that the expected value is higher and the variance is lower in finance than in tech. My sample is biased because I don't personally know any rich tech people but I know a lot of rich traders.

In general I think it is pretty foolish to think you can walk into a competitive field and make $Millions without even any passion for what you are doing.

In response to comment by [deleted] on Which College Major?
Comment author: jpulgarin 06 February 2012 09:48:16PM *  0 points [-]

Retracted.

Comment author: thejash 06 February 2012 02:38:36PM *  1 point [-]

I went and read that paper. I don't think it says that at all. Their exact conclusion is:

"An individual with a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 2 and assets of $0.7 million would choose employment at a market salary over becoming an entrepreneur. With lower risk aversion or higher initial assets, the entrepreneurial opportunity is worth more than alternative employment"

I didn't understand relative risk aversion, so I looked it up. Here is an example:

"[if you have constant relative risk aversion utility and] If you would give up 2% of your wealth to avoid a 50-50 risk of losing or gaining 10%, then you have a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 4." If you would give up only 0.5% of your wealth to avoid the same gamble, you have a coefficient of 1.
source: http://www.rasmusen.org/x/archives/cat_economics.html

Maybe I'm just not risk averse, but I would not be willing to give up much at all to prevent such a gamble. I'm WAY below a coefficient of 2, and I suspect that many people here on LW are as well.

Comment author: jpulgarin 06 February 2012 06:09:13PM 0 points [-]

This is why I said "average" venture-backed founder. You may have tons of assets such that losing/gaining 10% is not a big deal, or you may be naturally less risk-averse than the average person.

Some level of risk-aversion is rational, and it's not obvious to me if people are naturally over or below that level. it's also not obvious to me at all that people on LW would have unnaturally low risk-aversion.

Comment author: jswan 06 February 2012 04:34:28PM 1 point [-]

Just out of curiosity, what kind of lifestyle and investment strategy are you planning to support a long-term life of the mind on $1M USD? Or is millionaire more of a figure of speech representing "a whole lotta money"?

If you make 5% a year on that and live a very frugal lifestyle in a low-cost area, you could do OK, but medical expenses, children, inflation, etc could hurt your capital considerably. I think you'd need a good bit more than $1M to have a large safety margin.

In response to comment by jswan on Which College Major?
Comment author: jpulgarin 06 February 2012 06:03:48PM *  2 points [-]

The exact figure I'm aiming for is $5 M USD or above. I'd quit trying to make money as soon as I hit $5 M basically.

Comment author: praxis 06 February 2012 06:08:10AM 2 points [-]

I wonder what the ratio of "people who plan to become millionaires through tech entrepreneurship" to "people who become millionaires through tech entrepreneurship" is. Really, I wonder what it is. I would assume it's rather low, but then, a million dollars isn't really that much. Can moderately successfully start-ups provide a million dollars (in short order), or is it win/lose?

Comment author: jpulgarin 06 February 2012 10:53:08AM *  1 point [-]

It's more or less win/lose. Being the average venture-backed founder actually has negative expected utility.

Comment author: michaelcurzi 06 February 2012 06:58:55AM 2 points [-]

As one with similar plans to jpulgarin (minus the dancing?), I too am quite interested in relevant research. I know Carl Shulman has investigated entrepreneurship success rates but I don't know exactly what he found - I think I'll email him to find out. I am particularly curious about that '9/10 startups fail' statistic, which is repeated everywhere but I haven't yet seen confirmed.

Comment author: jpulgarin 06 February 2012 10:51:11AM *  4 points [-]

I've spoken to Carl about the subject and he pointed me to this paper: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14219

This paper puts the success rate of venture-backed companies at ~18%.

Comment author: jimmy 06 February 2012 05:32:29AM 3 points [-]

Be specific. Exactly what experience do you think you are incapable of having? Why do you think this?

Comment author: jpulgarin 06 February 2012 10:39:49AM 4 points [-]

Name amnesia (I saw you mention this on the link you gave).

I think this as a result of:

  1. My prior that you're a good hypnotist
  2. My prior that I am a suggestible person
  3. My prior that this can be done through online means
Comment author: faul_sname 06 February 2012 03:58:17AM 1 point [-]

That seem like a more general reason we should pay attention to what older people say, and is a valid point. However, it doesn't seem to specify why the very end of life is a significantly more important time than say, the first 12 weeks after turning 65.

Comment author: jpulgarin 06 February 2012 10:35:09AM *  1 point [-]

However, it doesn't seem to specify why the very end of life is a significantly more important time than say, the first 12 weeks after turning 65.

It's probably not - I was simply replying to your point about how all 12 week periods of life are equally valid.

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