Richard I think the difference is that in a world where one of them is miscalculating, that person can be shown that they are miscalculating and will then calculate correctly. However, in a world where their idealized calculations are actually significantly different, they would simply become enemies.

Sebastian Hagen:

My intuition is that a good deal of people would take the psychopath pill. At least if the social consequences were minimal, which is besides the point.

It seems weird to me that you would expect that if people had never used nuclear bombs before they would be more reluctant to use them. I would expect exactly the opposite (not that I am confident about this, but it's what I would expect). Consider that the US used nuclear bombs immediately after it got them.

I second Robin's request that you summarize your positions. It helps other folks organize and think about your ideas.