In the infinite number of possible paths, the percent of paths we are adding up to here is still very close to zero.
Perhaps I can attempt another rephrasing of the problem: what is the mechanism that would make an AI automatically seek these paths out, or make them any more likely than infinite number of other paths?
I.e. if we develop an AI which is not specifically designed for the purpose of destroying life on Earth, how would that AI get to a desire to destroy life on Earth, and by which mechanism would it gain the ability to accomplish its goal?
This entire problem seems to assume that an AI will want to "get free" or that its primary mission will somehow inevitably lead to a desire to get rid of us (as opposed to a desire to, say, send a signal consisting of 0101101 repeated an infinite number of times in the direction of Zeta Draconis, or any other possible random desire). And that this AI will be able to acquire the abilities and tools required to execute such a desire. Every time I look at such scenarios, there are abilities that are just assumed to exist or appear on their own (such as the theory of mind), which to the best of my understanding are not a necessary or even likely products of computation.
In the final rephrasing of the problem: if we can make an AGI, we can probably design an AGI for the purpose of developing an AGI that has a theory of mind. This AGI would then be capable of deducing things like deception or the need for deception. But the point is - unless we intentionally do this, it isn't going to happen. Self-optimizing intelligence doesn't self-optimize in the direction of having theory of mind, understanding deception, or anything similar. It could, randomly, but it also could do any other random thing from the infinite set of possible random things.
You are correct. I did not phrase my original posts carefully.
I hope that my further comments have made my position more clear?
We are trapped in an endless chain here. The computer would still somehow have to deduce that Wikipedia entry that describes One Ring is real, while the One Ring itself is not.
My apologies, but this is something completely different.
The scenario takes human beings - which have a desire to escape the box, possess theory of mind that allows them to conceive of notions such as "what are aliens thinking" or "deception", etc. Then it puts them in the role of the AI.
What I'm looking for is a plausible mechanism by which an AI might spontaneously develop such abilities. How (and why) would an AI develop a desire to escape from the box? How (and why) would an AI develop a theory of mind? Absent a theory of mind, how would it ever be able to manipulate humans?
Yet again: ability to discern which parts of fiction accurately reflect human psychology.
An AI searches the internet. It finds a fictional account about early warning systems causing nuclear war. It finds discussions about this topic. It finds a fictional account about Frodo taking the Ring to Mount Doom. It finds discussions about this topic. Why does this AI dedicate its next 10^15 cycles to determination of how to mess with the early warning systems, and not to determination of how to create One Ring to Rule them All?
(Plus other problems mentioned in the other comments.)
Doesn't work.
This requires the AI to already have the ability to comprehend what manipulation is, to develop manipulation strategy of any kind (even one that will succeed 0.01% of the time), ability to hide its true intent, ability to understand that not hiding its true intent would be bad, and the ability to discern which issues are low-salience and which high-salience for humans from the get-go. And many other things, actually, but this is already quite a list.
None of these abilities automatically "fall out" from an intelligent system either.
This seems like an accurate and a highly relevant point. Searching a solution space faster doesn't mean one can find a better solution if it isn't there.
Or if your search algorithm never accesses relevant search space. Quantitative advantage in one system does not translate into quantitative advantage in a qualitatively different system.
That is my point: it doesn't get to find out about general human behavior, not even from the Internet. It lacks the systems to contextualize human interactions, which have nothing to do with general intelligence.
Take a hugely mathematically capable autistic kid. Give him access to the internet. Watch him develop ability to recognize human interactions, understand human priorities, etc. to a sufficient degree that it recognizes that hacking an early warning system is the way to go?
Only if it has the skills required to analyze and contextualize human interactions. Otherwise, the Internet is a whole lot of jibberish.
Again, these skills do not automatically fall out of any intelligent system.
Yes. If we have an AGI, and someone sets forth to teach it how to be able to lie, I will get worried.
I am not worried about an AGI developing such an ability spontaneously.