kdbscott

I once asked Robin Hanson if he really thought status-seeking was such a dominant driver of human behavior. I said humans had dozens of factors motivating their behavior, it was crazy to claim there was One Big Thing. He replied (something to the effect of) "well, even if each factor...

Do you have a model predicting >1% chance of significant political violence (>5,000 deaths) in the US in the next year? Pls share. Also welcome: models predicting <.1% Metaculus has been walking around 1-5% probability of a US civil war before July 2021. While 1% is the lowest probability one...