Comment author:tog
01 May 2014 02:38:30PM
*
4 points
[-]
[Thread for making and discussing predictions]
To expand on my predictions, I think that global poverty will be the most popular cause except among those who say they heard of EA through LessWrong (whose numbers I'll be interested to see). I also think that skepticism/atheism will be the other social movement with which most identify, and atheism the most popular religious position. In the link Jacy Anthis has given a full set of predictions to test his accuracy.
Comment author:kdbscott
01 May 2014 11:02:57PM
3 points
[-]
Good point about LW affiliation - in addition I would add that results are highly dependent on how the survey is distributed. This makes large predictions difficult, but more specific predictions (like >80% of LW affiliations will identify as atheist/agnostic) might be the way to go.
I'm still getting familiar with this community, but I suppose it's a fun exercise so I've added some thoughts to the excel sheet.
= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
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= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
[Thread for making and discussing predictions]
To expand on my predictions, I think that global poverty will be the most popular cause except among those who say they heard of EA through LessWrong (whose numbers I'll be interested to see). I also think that skepticism/atheism will be the other social movement with which most identify, and atheism the most popular religious position. In the link Jacy Anthis has given a full set of predictions to test his accuracy.
Good point about LW affiliation - in addition I would add that results are highly dependent on how the survey is distributed. This makes large predictions difficult, but more specific predictions (like >80% of LW affiliations will identify as atheist/agnostic) might be the way to go.
I'm still getting familiar with this community, but I suppose it's a fun exercise so I've added some thoughts to the excel sheet.