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Comment author: Vaniver 20 April 2015 01:33:11PM *  2 points [-]

My view on the "Fermi paradox" is not that there is a single filter, cutting ~10 orders of magnitude (ie, from 10 billions of planets in our galaxy with could have a life to just one), but more a combination of many small filters, each taking their cuts.

I don't think that the Great Filter implies only one filter, but I think that if you're multiplying several numbers together and they come out to at least 10^10, it's likely that at least one of the numbers is big. (And if one of the numbers is big, that makes it less necessary for the other numbers to be big.)

Put another way, it seems more likely to me that there is one component filter of size 10^6 than two component filters each of size 10^3, both of which seem much more likely than that there are 20 component filters of size 2.

Comment author: kilobug 22 April 2015 09:07:38AM 1 point [-]

I don't see why it's likely one of the numbers has to be big. There are really are lots of complicated steps you need to cross to go from inert matter to space-faring civilizations, it's very easy to point a dozen of such steps that could fail in various ways or just take too long, and there many disasters that can happen to blow everything down.

If you've a long ridge to climb in a limited time and most people fail to do it, it's not very likely there is a very specific part of it which is very hard, but (unless you've actual data that most people fail at the same place) more likely that are lots of moderately difficult parts and few people succeed in all of them in time.

Or if you've a complicated project that takes 4x longer than expected to be done, it's much less likely that there was a single big difficulty you didn't foresee than many small-to-moderate difficulties you didn't foresee stacking on top of each other. The planning fallacy isn't usually due to black swans, but to accumulating smaller factors. It's the same here.

Comment author: kilobug 20 April 2015 11:35:17AM 3 points [-]

There is a thing which really upsets me with the "Great Filter" idea/terminology, is that implies that it's a single event (which is either in the past or the future).

My view on the "Fermi paradox" is not that there is a single filter, cutting ~10 orders of magnitude (ie, from 10 billions of planets in our galaxy with could have a life to just one), but more a combination of many small filters, each taking their cuts.

To have intelligent space-faring life, we need a lot of things to happen without any disaster (nearby supernova, too big asteroid, ...) disrupting it too much. It's more a like a "game of the goose", where the optimization process steadily advance but events will either accelerate it or make it go backwards, and you need to reach the "win" cell before time runs out (ie, your star becoming too hot as the Sun will be in less than a billion of years) or reaching a '"you lose" cell (a nearby supernova blasting away your atmosphere, or a thermonuclear warfare).

I don't see any reason to believe there is a single "Great Filter", instead of a much more continuous process with many intermediate filters you have to pass through.

Comment author: kilobug 07 April 2015 08:46:14AM 1 point [-]

Nicely put for an introduction, but of course things are in reality not as clear-cut, "rationality" changing the direction and "desire" the magnitude.

  1. Rationality can make you realize some contradictions between your desires, and force you to change them. It can also make you realize that what you truly desire isn't what you thought you desired. Or it can make you desire whole new things, that you didn't believe to be possible initially.

  2. Desire will affect the magnitude because it'll affect how much effort you put in your endeavor. With things like akrasia and procastination around, if you don't have strong desire to do something, you are much likely to do it, especially if there is an initial cost. That's what Eliezer calls "something to protect".

Of course those two are mostly positive feedback between rationality and desire, but there also be can negative feedbacks between the two, usually due to human imperfections.

Comment author: kilobug 20 March 2015 02:33:00PM 1 point [-]

Interesting idea, thanks for doing it, but saddly many questions are very US-centric. It would be nice to have some "tags" on the questions, and let the users select which kind of questions he wants (for example the non-US people could remove the US-specific ones).

Comment author: lwmdw45 16 March 2015 07:18:16PM *  1 point [-]

Isn't it a little out of character for Harry to blithely assume that Hermione can't possibly die in her dementor mission? He doesn't even know how Horcrux 2.0 works--is there any good reason to think that the Horcrux will preserve your life if you deliberately fuel your magic with your life to kill dementors? (It's basically just a body-hopping spell, not a life-preservation spell.) Would a horcrux restore to Harry the life and magic he used to revive Hermione?

It just seems suspiciously out of character that Harry has now suddenly turned into an optimist with regard to Hermione's survival. He even says to himself he would never let her risk the mission if he thought it was actually dangerous, which means that he apparently actually fully buys into her immortality.

It will be tragic for Harry if she is dead again, for real, next week. Not because death is tragic per se, but because it will utterly blindside him.

Comment author: kilobug 16 March 2015 09:00:49PM -1 points [-]

Yes, it is a bit suspicious - but then Azkaban and Dementors are so terrible that it's worth the risk, IMHO.

And I don't think Harry is counting just on the Horcrux, I think he's counting on Horcrux as last failback, counting on the unicorn blood and the "she knows death can be defeated because she did went back from death", and maybe even Hermione calling a Phoenix.

Comment author: kilobug 15 March 2015 11:20:23PM 6 points [-]

The chapter 122 in itself was good, I liked it, but I feel a bit disappointed that it's the end of the whole hpmor.

Not to be unfairly critical, it's still a very great story and many thanks to Eliezer for writing it, but... there are way too many remaining unanswered questions, unfinished business, ... to be the complete end. It feels more like "end of season 1, see season 2 for the next" than "and now it's over".

First, I would really have liked a "something to protect" about Harry's parents.

But mostly, there are lots of unanswered questions : how does magic work ? What destroyed Atlantis ? Where do the Deadly Hallows and the Stone come from ? What is the thing threatening to destroy the world ? What exactly are the effects of all the transformations on Hermione ?

And many plots arcs not finished : will Hermione managed to destroy the dementors, and with which consequences ? How will the political landscape reshape, but in UK and worldwide ? How will Harry manage to find a safe way to save the muggles too ? How will Hogwarts evolved ? How will Harry manage the Elder Wand ?

Comment author: somervta 15 March 2015 12:17:16AM 6 points [-]

Eliezer said this would just have been Harry antimatter-suiciding and Hermione waking up in a flaming crater.

Comment author: kilobug 15 March 2015 11:21:27AM 2 points [-]

I don't really see the point in antimatter suiciding. It'll not kill Voldermort due to the Horcrux network, so it'll just kill the Death Eaters but letting Voldemort in power, and Voldemort would be so pissed of he would do the worst he can to Harry's family and friends... how is that any better than letting Voldemort kill Harry and manage to save a couple of people by telling him a few secrets ?

Comment author: wobster109 10 March 2015 09:00:58PM 4 points [-]

There's a limit on a person going back, but I don't know about things. So maybe a bunch of people with time-turners could hand off the stone.

Comment author: kilobug 10 March 2015 10:59:53PM 0 points [-]

If I remember well, it's not just "person", but information. I can't use a Time Turner to go 6 hours back to the past, give a piece of paper to someone (or an information to that person), and have that person goes back for 6 more hours.

So while it is an interesting hypothesis, it would require no information to be carried... and isn't the fact that the Stone still exists and works an information in itself ? Or that's nitpicking ?

Comment author: falenas108 10 March 2015 08:29:48PM 3 points [-]

"In that extremity, I went into the Department of Mysteries and I invoked a password which had never been spoken in the history of the Line of Merlin Unbroken, did a thing forbidden and yet not utterly forbidden."

So, this is the single change that makes this story an AU?

Comment author: kilobug 10 March 2015 09:50:43PM 6 points [-]

There seem to be much more changes, even that is probably the most important one.

Time Turners don't work the same (in canon, there is no hard limit on 6 hours, it just becomes exponentially dangerous if you try that), the Sirius Black/Pettigrew thing doesn't turn out the same at all, the Free Transfiguration stuff doesn't seem to work the same, ...

And as others mentioned, Voldemort is much more competent.

Comment author: kilobug 10 March 2015 07:46:35PM 12 points [-]

Hum, did Harry suddenly forget about Time-Turners ? Or is he afraid what will happen if people "abuses" from them with the Stone ?

The Stone takes 234 seconds. That's 86400/234 = 369 people/day if you have "normal" 24 hours a day. But if you have 30 hours a day, as you do with a Time-Turner, it's actually 461 people you can heal each day.

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