Comment author: Logos01 10 October 2011 02:43:11PM *  5 points [-]

Or were judges being too nice? We know there was bias, but we still don't know when bias occurred.

I feel the need to point out that the observation does not necessarily result in a bias. We literally know nothing about the legal system's arrangments for parolees here other than this single data point.

It could be, for example, that there is an understanding that the review boards arrange cases before judges based on the boards' estimate of the potential parolee's worthiness of release; with the 'worst offenders' being later in a giving hearing bracket. This would also take the shape of a linear decline in parole-granting rates -- but would not represent any bias in the judge's reasoning.

(In case this is not clear, as I appear to sometimes have difficulty communicating with others on this site: My only positional claim here is that we do not know if this is actually a bias at all, as we have too little data to make such a definitive statement. All else is merely explanation of this stance.)

Comment author: kremlin 11 October 2012 04:48:13PM *  4 points [-]

I thumbed you up because you were technically correct about the fact that just because positive judgements drop doesn't mean there's a bias.

However, there is some extra data in this economist article on the same study to support the idea that there weren't factors in the arrangements of parole candidates that would account for such a drop:

To be sure, mealtimes were not the only thing that predicted the outcome of the rulings. Offenders who appeared prone to recidivism (in this case those with previous convictions) were more likely to be turned down, as were those who were not in a rehabilitation programme. Happily, neither the sex nor the ethnicity of the prisoners seemed to matter to the judges. Nor did the length of time the offenders had already spent in prison, nor even the severity of their crimes (as assessed by a separate panel of legal experts). But after controlling for recidivism and rehabilitation programmes, the meal-related pattern remained.

Comment author: kremlin 02 June 2012 04:21:00PM *  1 point [-]

I think I came up with a solution:

to date, the vast majority of grue-like hypotheses (hypotheses that suggest new items that have always been grue before time t will continue to be found grue after time t) has failed. inductive logic, then, doesn't suggest that because emeralds have been grue to date, they will continue to be grue after time t. so far, after every time t, that's not been the case.

If it's unclear what I mean when I say grue-like hypotheses have failed, let me word it better: if time t was 1975, then the hypothesis that emeralds found after time t will be grue was incorrect. same for 1976. same for 1977. etc etc. An infinite, or at least incredibly large number, of grue-like hypotheses, then, has failed, so inductive logic doesn't tell us to predict that emeralds found after time t will be grue. Inductive logic, to the contrary, tells us that once time t comes about, new emeralds found will be bleen.

Sorry for the sloppy wording, I hope you brilliant fellows will read my post for the idea within, and not for some sloppy wording to nitpick. Some of you guys are very good at that.

In response to Wrong Questions
Comment author: kremlin 31 May 2012 09:22:06PM 6 points [-]

Some people were talking about The Ship of Theseus -- the question "If a ship's parts are replaced one-by-one over time, after each part is replaced is it still the same ship?" First thing that came to my mind was that this was a wrong question. I saw it fundamentally as the same mistake as the Blegg/Rube problem -- they know every property about the ship that's relevant to the question, and yet still there feels like a question left unanswered.

Am I right about this?

Comment author: Michael_Bishop 14 December 2007 05:15:00AM 2 points [-]

I realize it has little to do with the main argument of the post, but I also have issues with Eliezer's claim:

"The experimental evidence for a purely genetic component of 0.6-0.8 is overwhelming..."

Genes matter a lot. But there are a number of problems with the calculation you allude to. See Richard Nisbett's work.

Comment author: kremlin 07 May 2012 02:21:11PM 1 point [-]

what is the calculation he was alluding to? i wanted a source on that.

Comment author: dbaupp 25 November 2011 11:46:20AM 2 points [-]
Comment author: kremlin 25 November 2011 09:32:54PM 0 points [-]

thanks, i haven't looked in to linking in the comments to other wiki pages yet. just joined.

Comment author: kremlin 25 November 2011 11:13:24AM 0 points [-]

I really like Possibility and Couldness, but that could be because i've been talking about determinism a lot lately. Also, Zombies? Zombies! was a fun read.

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