Comment author: Bryan-san 25 January 2016 03:32:52PM 1 point [-]

This article looks like a good Part 1 of Many. I would normally expect this article to be followed by several more that go into detail about what good, rational planning actually looks like and how to do effective and useful research on topics like these.

Breaking things down into smaller parts and doing research sound like good ideas #1 and #2 of 20 or 30 needed to do really awesome planning.

Comment author: lifelonglearner 25 January 2016 06:33:33PM 0 points [-]

That's really true.

This started as an effort to catalog my own planning processes, but I have tons more to learn.

I'll definitely be thinking more about the points you've raised (what good rational planning looks like/good research), but I know that I, too, haven't got the whole picture in my head yet.

I would like to add more to this idea of good planning as I learn more. Do you have any suggestions for further reading I might benefit from (and eventually write about)?

Comment author: RichardKennaway 25 January 2016 04:30:41PM 1 point [-]

I think there's an overemphasis on planning in more and more detail. Some things are opaque at the point of making the plan. For example, some parts of a plan may require you do to things you don't know how to do. That breaks down into (1) find out how, and (2) do it. But you don't know what you're going to find, and what acting on you find will look like. (2) is opaque at the planning stage, and may not even exist if the answer to (1) suggests a different way of going about the parent goal.

Also, things can go wrong during execution. No complicated car repair ever goes exactly as the Haynes manual says, and for all the convenience of satnavs, you sometimes have to notice that it's sending you along a stupid route.

I recently had the goal of taking a piece of software I wrote in 100,000 lines of C++ and getting it to be callable from a web page, returning results to be embedded into the same web page, and running on a web server that it had never been compiled for before, starting from a position of knowing nothing about how to do dynamic web pages. It got done, but a plan would have looked like "1. Find a suitable technology for doing dynamic web pages. 2. Use it."

Comment author: lifelonglearner 25 January 2016 06:30:56PM 0 points [-]

You raise some good points about other things that can happen in planning, and your point about opacity in plans along with learning new skills is also something I hadn't considered.

The general idea of "getting things done" doesn't seem to vary, but there's definitely much more room for variation than I've implied.

I think a large part of that is caused by my: 1) Inexperience with applying planning skills 2) Using them only on a very narrow range 3) Extrapolating from my personal experience.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 25 January 2016 01:28:23PM 0 points [-]

Full marks for the pep talk, but the prescription of "planning" is surely only part of what is needed. How would you handle the planning fallacy? I don't think "better planning" is the answer.

Comment author: lifelonglearner 25 January 2016 02:01:35PM 0 points [-]

That's definitely true. The planning fallacy is a huge issue, and I don't address it here when I talk about plans to reach your goals.

I think finding the motivation to get things done is also a central part of the "achieving goals" target.

I'd like to try and address both of those in some form or another. Do you feel the essay would be strengthened if I added it in passing, or devoted smaller, separate pieces to cover those two?

Comment author: ChristianKl 25 January 2016 12:21:45PM -1 points [-]

In the same way, if we want to achieve our goals, we’ll be looking for the best plan possible. A better plan is one that has a higher chance of getting us what we want. So, to solve complex, global problems, we’ll need a great plan.

How do you know those things that you claim in that paragraph?

Everyone that came before you who wanted to make a difference probably had a fairly good notion of what the problems were, but how many of them actually took the time to really research/create a strategy of what to do about it?

Marx did research and he had a plan of how to make things better. It turned out that trying to put that plan into reality didn't really turn the world into a better place. Hitler also had his masterplan.

In the later part of the 20st century there was the sentiment that this isn't a good way to do things.

Comment author: lifelonglearner 25 January 2016 01:59:12PM 0 points [-]

Thanks for addressing more underlying assumptions. I'll think more about them (especially the plans in history have not been successful bit) and try to find something that better reflects a strategy that takes this into account.

"Why Try Hard" Essay targeted at non rationalists

3 lifelonglearner 24 January 2016 04:40PM

Hello everyone,

This is a follow-up to my last post about optimizing, which I intended to spread to nonrationalist friends of mine.  Initial feedback let me know that a lot of the language was a put-off, as well as the dry style and lack of opposing counters to arguments against optimization.

I've tried to take some of those ideas and put it into a new essay, one that tries to get across the idea that planning is important to accomplish goals.

I'd appreciate any/all critiques-- the comments last time were very helpful in learning what I could improve on:

Why Try Hard?


Life is pretty hard.  Seriously, it scores an 11/10 on the Mohs Scale.  Scratch that (eyy), it’s more like a 12/10.  Which is probably why many people go through life without too many dreams and ambitions.  I mean, it’s hard to just deal with daily problems of living, not to mention those pesky social interactions no one seems to get the hang of (“So you grasp their hand and apply pressure while vigorously shaking it a few inches up and down?”).


But you’re going to be different.  


You’re going to try and make a difference, and change the world.  Except that everyone around you seems to be talking about the “naivete of youth” and seems pretty jaded (6.5 Mohs) about life.  Obviously their cynicism isn’t sharp enough to scratch all of life (6.5<12), so you listen their warnings and run off to face the final boss anyways.


After all, if you really try hard, things should work out, right? You’ve got the drive, the dream, the baseball cap, and the yellow electrical mouse.  Why wouldn’t things work out for you, the main character?


Deep down though, you probably also already realize the futility of trying to create systemic change.  I mean, those jaded mentors of yours once had your idealism too.  And they also wanted to make the world a better place.  But they ventured out into the world, and came back, battered and wizened-- more attuned to the reality we live in.


Might it be smarter,” that little voice in your head asks, “to bow to the reality of the situation, and lower your sights?


And the reality of the situation is terrible.  We have hundreds of thousands of lives being lost each day.  Terrible diseases that cripple our livelihood and tear families apart.  Climate change that causes loss of biodiversity and threatens to flood communities across the globe.  We could very well be crushed by an asteroid, or suffer terribly at the hands of full-scale nuclear war.  A lonely blue and green speck in an unkind, frozen nightscape.  


Against such unequal odds, people tend to localize:  “Fighting worldwide hunger is impossible,” they say, “what can one person like me do?” This is a normal response.  The perils and problems in this world are enormous!  How can we even hope to solve them?  


But maybe, that voice nags, “if I do my part, if I donate to my community’s food bank, I can make that little bit of difference in my own little world. And I can be satisfied with that.” There is something poetic about this-- doing what you can in your own little world.  “Forget saving the world,” it cries, “if I can inspire change in my community, that will be enough for me.  I will have done my part.”


But will you really?  Will you be truly satisfied that you’ve done all that you can to try and solve the world’s problems?  


Hi, I’m the other voice.  


You know, the stupid one?  The delusional one that refuses to accept reality as-is?  The one that insists, no matter the odds, that we should try to make things better?  The one that looks at the huge problems the world is facing and says, “If so much is wrong, it’s all the more reason to try and set them right!”  


Your mentors may have wanted to improve the world, but did they have a map, a strategy, an action plan?


Of course,” you may respond, “who doesn’t have a plan?  You really are the stupid voice.


But for many of us, in our heads, trying to solve these big world problems looks a little like this:

Step 1: Learn that world hunger is a big issue.

Step 3: Solve world hunger.


First off, you’ll probably notice that Step 2 is missing.  You’ll also probably notice that the above plan looks a little simple.  There’s a lot of heart (caring about the problem), but it’s missing a lot of head (trying to come up with an actual plan to solve the problem).  Sort of like the Headless Horseman.


You may ask: “What good are plans? If you care enough about things, you’ll find a way!


Plans are deliberate maps to your goal-- getting what you want.  We use plans because they are more effective at getting to our goals than just hoping that our goals happen.  It’s just a feature of our universe: If we want to affect reality, we’ll have to do things in reality; we can’t just imagine something and have it happen-- it’s just not how our world works.


In the same way, if we want to achieve our goals, we’ll be looking for the best plan possible.  A better plan is one that has a higher chance of getting us what we want.  So, to solve complex, global problems, we’ll need a great plan.


And therein lies the key.  


Everyone that came before you who wanted to make a difference probably had a fairly good notion of what the problems were, but how many of them actually took the time to really research/create a strategy of what to do about it?


But that’s not fair to them,” you may cry out, “they didn’t have access to resources like we do today!  The Internet has exploded in the past few decades, and my phone has more computing power than what used to require an entire room!  You can’t expect them to have been able to create detailed plans or research things out fully!  It was good enough that they even cared, at least a little!


Precisely.  


They might not have had access to the wonderful resources we have today-- which would have seriously hampered their researching ability/ability to make plans.


Right,” you may say, “then how can you expect anyone to do anything about these issues?  They’re too large-- you just admitted that it’s impossible to make plans that solve anything this big!


But you can totally research to your heart’s content.  You are living in a world where information is literally at your fingertips.  As a human being, you’re already hard-wired to make plans and achieve your goals!


<Cue motivational music>


So don’t give up on your plans of solving worldwide problems just yet!  You have at least two advantages over all the idealistic youth that came before you in generations past:  


  1. With the Internet, you have access to a vast majority of all of humanity’s acquired knowledge-- over 5,000 years of accumulated lore.


  1. Armed with the idea that plans get things done, you can create strategies that actually lead to your goals.


To end, I’ll be giving you a basic framework that you can apply to create plans that allow you to achieve your goals: The General Action Plan (GAP):


The main idea is broken into 4 steps:


  1. Identify your goal:

This is what you want to get done.  It’s going to be the focus of all your actions.


EX: “Convince all my friends that procrastination is terrible; get them to change their

habits”


  1. What do you need to do to get it done?

If the goal is large, break it up into subsections of things you can do.  Identify categories.  If

you end up with a few general sections, identify subgoals for each section.  Repeat as

needed.


EX: “I will need to focus on Outreach, Persuasion, Creating a Movement, and Publicity if I

want to get my friends to change their habits.”


  1. What is stopping you from getting it done?

Identify things that make it hard for you to start.  List smaller things you need to do for

each subsection.


EX: “I will have difficulty convincing people.  I need to motivate myself to get this done.  I

will have trouble getting the social media attention I’ll need.”


  1. Break it down again.

Take all the vague-sounding things you wrote down earlier, and break it down again into

smaller actions.  The trick behind the G.A.P. is to take conceptual things that are hard to do into actual actionable items.


EX: “Outreach becomes:

  1. Create a poster

  2. Talk to friends

  3. Make a Facebook post.

Breaking it down again:


Create a poster:

  1. Outline poster

  2. Ask friend to supply visuals

  3. Post around school


Talk to friends:

  1. Make a list of friends who would be interested

  2. Find out what your main idea should be

  3. Find opportunities to talk with them


and so on for each action.”


Concluding Thoughts:


When faced with impossible odds, don’t try to shoot lower-- make a better plan.  We’re living in a really great plan where we can network with people across the globe and learn about almost anything.


No matter what things you want to accomplish, having a basic understanding of breaking it down should make it much easier to understand how to get big, complex, and fuzzy ideas like “teach the value of persistence” done.  


Instead of focusing on the abstract “idea-ness” of the goal, focus on what the goal would look like if you were successful, and focus on cultivating those symptoms.  And remember to take all the general concepts and clarify them.


A lot of paralysis when it comes to getting anything done is uncertainty .  If you don’t know what you can do to solve a problem, it’s much scarier.  But if you can hone in on what exactly you need to get done, even if it’s an impossible task, you at least know what you can do.

So back to the original question, “Why try hard?”  


I suppose the answer is, “If you aren’t trying hard, you aren’t really trying at all.”

 

 

 

Comment author: lifelonglearner 22 January 2016 01:13:32AM 0 points [-]

Currently going about the process of marking my original draft with comments that everyone gave. Hopefully I can share a revised version in a week or so. Thank you all for the critique!

Comment author: spriteless 21 January 2016 04:14:16AM *  1 point [-]

So, listing some reasons:

  • reason: If you optimize you will miss all the truly important things!
  • answer: well, just make them a priority to optimize for

  • reason: but maaagic is wonder!

  • answer: but real things are also wonder.
Comment author: lifelonglearner 22 January 2016 01:12:18AM 0 points [-]

These seem like some good bouncing-off points.

Comment author: Tiago 12 January 2016 07:30:33AM 1 point [-]

When thinking about my resolutions for this year, I realized that saying that I am going to do something doesn't solve the problem, unless I have a serious reason to think I really will do it. This had a major impact on my willpower and the way I have been considering it for the past week. For instance, I write down my goals, the way to achieve them and how I will implement them in my life.

Besides that, I mostly didn't do anything important though. But I am confident this common sense knowledge will make my life better.

Comment author: lifelonglearner 20 January 2016 12:41:08AM 0 points [-]

Yeah-- this is something that seems intuitive once you grasp it. But just because it's "common-sense" doesn't mean it's not useful. Writing things down and making a plan to get things done is a really effective way of achieving your goals!

Comment author: Elo 18 January 2016 11:20:16PM 2 points [-]

Personal comment: I dislike the style of your writing. It's probably just me; but I found it difficult to parse. I think I probably write and read differently.

For example:

Personally, I believe mapping things out, writing things down, and general planning skills are super helpful. We’ll explore all those ideas eventually, but the point is that I find that these utilizing these skills allows me to optimize my task completion process– not only do I finish in less time, but the quality of work is also improved.

I would write as: Mapping things out, writing things down, and planning skills are super helpful. We will cover all these ideas later, but for now - utilising these skills allows me to optimise my ability to get done what I want to get done; to finish what I start. Not only do I finish in less time, but the final product is higher quality.


Or:

We can also divide actions into things we “have” to do (mandatory actions) and things we “can” do (voluntary actions). There are actions we have a choice in doing, and actions we may have less of a choice in doing. There is some overlap with the “fun” and “unfun” categories. Some mandatory actions are fun, some are unfun.

Voluntary activities can be fun or unfun, but I think most people would choose to do fun actions over unfun ones.

As:

We can divide actions into things we "must" do, (mandatory) and things we "want" to do (voluntary). There are actions we can choose to do, and actions we have less choice to do. There is some overlap with the “fun” and “unfun” categories. Some mandatory actions are fun, some are un-fun. Voluntary activities can be fun or un-fun, but for optional actions - people would choose to do fun actions over un-fun ones.

(I could make more examples; but I don't think it will show anything more)


I don't always like the metric of "have to", and when talking about mandatory actions; there is a big grey zone. for example it's mandatory that I breathe or I die, but you (and most people) probably consider "paying rent" as mandatory or else you won't have a home. While it's entirely optional to choose not to pay rent; it causes a lot of other things that you probably don't want, like not having a place to store your possessions and having less life security.

It's important to talk about this overlap (in this case and in other similar cases where there are overlaps) or else your audience will fall into the categories of "that made sense straight away" and "that didn't make sense". while it may take more time to cover grey zones; it helps people who fall into the "unclear" category at first. (Particularly - people who this makes sense to; don't need to be reading it, people who are having difficulty making sense of the topic are the ones that need extra assistance to understand it.


Further:

For example, say we have to choose between watching an interesting television show that spans 7 seasons on Netflix, or we can read more of that Introductory Calculus textbook we just got.

this statement has an implied assumption that because "we just got" the calculus textbook, that it's a goal to read the book and understand that information. while that's a real "duh" moment for some people reading; the people who are saying, "I'd rather watch netflix" need to be explained that understanding calculus was a goal; therefore we purchased a textbook, therefore we want to read it. Along with this; deciding a goal and acting on it are important skills that are implied in what you wrote so far. I hope you can cover that more in the next pieces in the series.


Overall; a good start, I would encourage more polishing. Feel free to join the slack channel and share drafts for some feedback.

Comment author: lifelonglearner 19 January 2016 01:51:30PM *  0 points [-]

Hello Elo,

Wow, thanks for an in-depth piece of feedback. Since I'm trying to convey these ideas to a broader audience, I think I can definitely learn to improve the coherency and style of what I write so that it's more understandable to more people.

Thank you for pointing out both the implicit assumption (which I had overlooked) and the grey area, too.

Comment author: ChristianKl 18 January 2016 09:28:46AM 5 points [-]

Concepts and ideas are often much clearer in our heads than what we actually say

Quite often we also think that concepts in our head are clear when they aren't. It's very easy to delude yourself.

Comment author: lifelonglearner 18 January 2016 05:59:54PM 1 point [-]

Yeah-- I can see why that can be the case.

Writing it out/ explaining X to a friend who is either more knowledgeable about X (so you can confirm/deny what you know) or doesn't know about X (so you can see if after your explanation they are grasping what you are saying and see if it matches what's in your head) seem to be the first two options for corroborating information in our heads.

Do you have any other recommendations to straighten things out? I'd love to hear more about this-- I hadn't really considered this outside inferential distances before you brought this up.

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