Comment author: Dentin 20 November 2013 09:28:37PM 8 points [-]

It's beyond me why someone would push a short term, questionable solution like cryonics as being more altruistic than contributing to SENS. I could arguably see cryonics as better than a number of other charities, but against SENS, with its current level of funding, it's not even close.

I'm a member at Alcor because I'm imperfectly altruistic and wish to maximize my odds. But I contribute far, far more to SENS, as they have a vastly better plan for preventing death in the long run.

Comment author: lsparrish 21 November 2013 01:25:54AM *  6 points [-]

If cryonics works in the here and now, we could in principle (with adequate PR, policies, and so forth) replace all funerals with cryonics and save almost everyone from dying today. I would expect regenerative therapies to finally get out of clinical trials after 50 years or so, even if we were to get them working right away. This represents a very large amount of expected utility (2.5 billion deaths worth, at 50 million per year) with that amount of time.

That said, it is not such a good comparison to hold current cryonics tech up against future advances anticipated in antiaging tech. If you want to put money into future advances in life extension, generally considered, it makes more sense to consider whether meaningful antiaging (say, something significant enough to get large numbers of people to actuarial escape velocity -- perhaps a 10-year improvement) is more/less likely than the cryonics equivalent (say, reversible vitrification of the brain) to be adequately solved, and cheaply distributed to the global population, first.

Some things to consider:

  1. Cryonics has already been pioneered to the point of reversible rabbit kidney, and the prospects for a brain are defensible (if uncertain) in patients right now, despite clinical death. By contrast, we can be pretty sure nobody currently has been rejuvenated from aging. The closest existing thing is caloric restriction, which appears not to work in primates. SENS is still speculative.
  2. The problem of cryonics is largely brute physics (cooling, diffusion, cryoprotectant chemistry), whereas aging is predominantly a matter of the biochemistry of metabolism and regeneration. The complex biochemical technologies we uncover that we can expect to be helpful against aging may be even more effective towards cryonics, because they can be combined/hybridized with mechanically based advances (e.g. cooling more rapidly to prevent toxicity while simultaneously mitigating toxicity with engineered biochemicals).
  3. Experimental feedback for cryonics research tends to be faster (and involve less suffering) because you do not have to wait for the animal to die of old age. The study can be done on a healthy animal, where the only relevant form of damage is the cryobiological/toxicological damage, which occurs instantly, and after anesthetization.

Apart from the technical advantages, it is worth considering that cryonics may be cheaper to deploy on a massive scale. Liquid nitrogen costs are much lower (per unit volume) for larger storage units. Perfusion with cryoprotectant could be worked into the existing end-of-life medical system. You wouldn't have to experiment on healthy old people with innovative therapies as SENS would need to to, only terminal or clinically dead patients would be subject to cryonics.

Effective Altruism and Cryonics, Contest Results

12 lsparrish 19 November 2013 05:06PM

Thank you to each of the five contestants who entered an essay into the contest that was started a little over a week ago to explore cryonics as a prospective target for effective altruism. The five entries (listed chronologically) are:

  1. jkaufman
  2. deleted
  3. RomeoStevens
  4. jaime2000
  5. Ishaan

All five of essays show evidence of much thought and hard work. Based on multiple readings of each, here are some brief impressions from each essay:

  • The entry by jkaufman is intelligently written and even-handed, giving math-based arguments why cryonics might or might not be competitive with effective charities such as AMF. The bar set by such charities is very high. However, depending what utilitarian framework you use, cryonics could be competitive if the chances of it working are sufficiently good. On the other hand, when considered in person-neutral terms, advertising cryonics seems to be a better use of a given dollar than signing up, as chances are you could induce multiple others to sign up for the same money.
  • The entry by deleted, which is presented in outline form, brings up several good points, although it does not defend all of them at length, and comes up slightly short of the 800 word target. Despite the brevity (and some spelling errors), I had a positive reaction to it personally, particularly the discussion of cryonics as a possible alternative to end-of-life intensive care. It would be interesting to see a more fleshed out version and/or multiple essays exploring the points touched on in this outline.
  • The entry by RomeoStevens discusses, among other things, the prospect that money raised for cryonics is likely to be money that could not otherwise be raised for a beneficial purpose. Although similar in some respects to the jkaufman essay, it stresses the usefulness of self-interest in others (e.g. aging wealthy people) as a way to attempt to produce the most good. It also goes into some of the more counterintuitive points that argue for cryonics as potential EA, such as effects on low-funded/high-value research, and the altered time preference of a cryonicist.
  • The entry by jaime2000 examines the necessary conditions for someone to be signed up for cryonics to determine which is the most efficient use of additional funding. This essay is well organized and sourced. It recommends building public awareness (for example, advertising) as the most efficient path to promoting cryonics.
  • The entry by Ishann is an introspective look at why some utilitarians whose intuitions run contrary to cryonics (and life extension in general), as a person-neutral effective altruism target, might reconsider those intuitions when considering life extension in the absence of cognitive decline (the familiar status quo for extending life past 100).

Each of these impresses me as incredibly valuable in its own right, for its own reasons. I would encourage the authors to expand them into top-level posts now that the contest is over.

Prize Winner: The essay that that I think best makes its points is the one by RomeoStevens, which encompasses significant breadth and depth on this topic. Well done, RomeoStevens!

Comment author: Ishaan 13 November 2013 10:45:53PM *  4 points [-]

I think the problem that people are having is that it's generally considered an exercise in rhetoric (AKA "dark arts" on LW) to mentally compose an argument with the conclusion already in mind (as opposed to impartially settling upon whatever conclusion the logic leads to) unless you're attempting to steel-man a position you disagree with. Presumably, doing so will enhance confirmation bias. This is the reason that contrarians and devil's-advocate-lovers are common among intellectual circles

That cryonics is something that some utilitarians would support under some circumstances?

Yes, I think that's it. "Bottom line" refers to the conclusion that you must eventually arrive at in order for your essay to qualify.

By army1987's usage of "bottom line", an essay contest without a bottom line asks a question, but does not presuppose an answer. An essay contest with a bottom line specifies a conclusion, and asks participants to think of the most clever way to arrive at that conclusion.

Disclaimer: I myself do not think that existence of essay contests with "bottom lines" is necessarily bad practice, although I'm not willing to give an unqualified yay / boo because I haven't thought about it sufficiently.

Edit:: I suspect that it's okay if the writer and audience is aware of the potentially bias-inducing nature of the format, and wish to use the format explore the space of arguments for a certain position. You might even change your mind this way (In a "really? That's the best argument for this?) sort of way.

Comment author: lsparrish 15 November 2013 02:24:51AM 2 points [-]

The efficient charity essay contest had a bottom line, it just wasn't something anyone would be likely to dispute (and which had been previously argued for on Less Wrong). Qualified entries were supposed to explain, in less jargonistic terms, that you should optimize for utilions rather than fuzzies. The idea in that case was to put the existing ideas in more layman-friendly terms.

If the bottom line we're discussing is just "some utilitarians in some situations support cryonics", my thinking is that it shouldn't be controversial, since that's pretty much already implied by the fungibility of utility. At least, if the opposite were true, I'd be surprised and want a good explanation for it. But I'm wondering if there's a more subtle issue -- perhaps it is being experienced as implying in some dark-artsy way something like "no rational utilitarian would ever oppose cryonics", something I never intended (and don't agree with).

Another explanation is that there's a real disagreement about the relative plausibility of utilitarians supporting cryonics. I have more or less implied (by the existence of the contest) that it is fairly plausible for lots of kinds of utilitarians. That is something I actually think, but is open to question. Some might be thinking it is fairly implausible for most kinds of utilitarians. It could be seen as a dark arts move on my part, that I didn't really give the opposite perspective much consideration in composing the contest.

However, the results of the contest should render that idea more of a testable prediction than it was before the contest. If it's right, it should be possible to critique most of the essays produced for the contest by pointing out how implausible the scenarios are or how odd/implausible the particular kind of utilitarianism they discuss are. If it's wrong, at least some of the scenarios should be fairly plausible ones for realistic utilitarianisms.

Comment author: Lumifer 13 November 2013 07:38:27PM 1 point [-]

So maybe hold onto the debt indefinitely

Is the clock running? Loans are rarely made at zero interest rate, as the time goes by does my total obligation increase?

Also, what is my incentive to make any payments?

The person may even feel the debt was unjustly accrued

How is this relevant to anything?

Comment author: lsparrish 13 November 2013 07:59:58PM 0 points [-]

Is the clock running? Loans are rarely made at zero interest rate, as the time goes by does my total obligation increase?

It could be zero interest, if the primary purpose for holding onto it is to remind the person of their obligation and produce good feelings when they return the favor.

Also, what is my incentive to make any payments?

If you hold onto a debt, it shows on your credit report. Paying it off could improve your credit. But apart from that, there's the matter that it is functionally identical to donating to effective charity.

How is this relevant to anything?

The subjective feeling of obligation with regards to the original debt might affect probability of repayment over time.

Comment author: jaime2000 13 November 2013 07:36:16PM 0 points [-]

Yes, thank you very much!

Comment author: lsparrish 13 November 2013 07:38:07PM *  1 point [-]

Okay, that is the new deadline. (Updated.)

Comment author: jaime2000 13 November 2013 07:24:41PM 1 point [-]

I'd like some time, please.

Comment author: lsparrish 13 November 2013 07:26:27PM 1 point [-]

Does Sunday 11/17 at 8pm PST sound good?

Comment author: Lumifer 13 November 2013 07:14:34PM 2 points [-]

I don't understand why forgiving someone's debts is necessary for giving a test for programming ability and enrolling him into a training program.

Comment author: lsparrish 13 November 2013 07:22:11PM *  0 points [-]

So maybe hold onto the debt indefinitely and offer to forward any repayments to charity? That might work, but it seems like if their income increases later, it might not be as advantageous to forgive it then for tax reasons. Also, there might be a goodwill factor associated with debt-forgiveness that isn't there with repayment. The person may even feel the debt was unjustly accrued (e.g. medical bills for botched procedures) and feel repayment is a bad thing overall.

Comment author: Lumifer 13 November 2013 04:45:19PM 4 points [-]

freeing people with good prospects from debt in exchange for their signing a contract to donate a small portion of their future salary to charity?

So, let's see.

First you need to identify people who defaulted on their debt payments. This is easy.

Second, you need to filter them and select "people with good prospects". This is considerably harder. I am not even sure what does that mean. Presumably you'll ignore the credit card debts of a black single mother of nine kids but will buy the student debts of white suburban girls graduating from college?

Third, what you are doing, in economic terms, is refinancing their debt. You give them the lump sum now in exchange for a promise of a series of payments later. That's just a normal loan transaction. What makes it special -- that you will be willing to loan money on favorable terms to people already in default? Well, I guess, but that doesn't strike me as particularly effective or increasing "the world's productivity in the long run".

Comment author: lsparrish 13 November 2013 06:57:59PM 1 point [-]

I wonder if one could focus on something that often goes untapped like innate programming ability. Have the person take a test that sees if they can learn to program, and if they can, forgive their debt and enroll them in a program to train them and get them employed.

Comment author: Lumifer 13 November 2013 04:49:59PM 1 point [-]

forgiving debt counts as a taxable event

+1

Under the US tax law is someone forgives your $50,000 debt, that $50,000 is added to your income and you owe all taxes on it.

Comment author: lsparrish 13 November 2013 06:55:38PM 0 points [-]

Yes, but having the forgiveness happen in a low-income year would result in less taxes. So perhaps the charity could forgive debt in a way that is conditional on later income being donated to effective causes.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 12 November 2013 09:05:57PM *  2 points [-]

I am working on one under the impression that the deadline was tomorrow? (Nov 13th at 7:55pm)

Comment author: lsparrish 13 November 2013 06:36:05PM 0 points [-]

That's correct. However I will move the deadline out by a few days if anyone asks. If that happens, you will be able to use the time to edit and polish your submission further if you like.

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